by: Wax

At the end of a three month journey, it’s finally time to see which StarCraft II team is the best in the world. Yes, it’s time for the World Team League playoffs!

WTL Playoffs Bracket & Format

Schedule

• Rounds 1 & 2: Friday, Jan 05 12:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)
• Rounds 3 & 4: Saturday, Jan 06 12:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)
• Semis and grand final: Sunday, Jan 07 12:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

WTL Playoff format

Basic format: Unlike other SC2 teamleague formats, WTL is based around a LOSE CONDITION rather than a win condition. Each team has four ‘lives,’ and the first team to reach zero lives loses the match.

As in the regular season, the teams play a series of best-of-two matches. Only the initial players for each team are predetermined, while the remaining players are chosen as the match progresses.

If a match ends 2-0, the winning player remains active and plays in the next match. The losing player is eliminated and their team loses a life. The losing team then picks a new player to play in the next match.

If the result of a match is a 1-1 tie, then both players are eliminated, both teams lose a life, and both teams must send out a new player for the next match.

Revives: Each team is allowed a single revive prior to the ace-match (see below), returning an eliminated player to the series.

Should the series go to an ace match, each team is given another revive. However, this ‘ace-revive’ cannot be used on a player that was already revived (no double-reviving).

Ace Matches: If a match ends in a 1-1 tie when both teams are down to one life, they will have effectively reached zero lives at the same time (the team that goes up 1-0 first does NOT win; the second game of the match must be played). In that case, a single BO1 ace match is played to decide the outcome of the series. Ace match players may be selected/revived as described above.

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In short, the format tries to balance the top-heavy nature of a pure all-kill format and the equitable style of the usual WTL format. That means teams with a particularly strong ace tend to perform better than in the regular season, but good snipers and utility players still retain much of their value.

Playoff Teams Overview

Mystery Gaming (#7 seed): 17 points, 5-6 record, +0 map differential

Roster and regular season records:

Mystery Gaming might be the strongest #7 seed we’ve ever seen, helmed by two WTL veterans in Bunny and RagnaroK. Both players have been very solid 2nd options on previous playoff teams, and it’s no surprise that they were able to lead MYG to the postseason despite the team’s disastrous first half.

Unfortunately, neither Bunny nor RagnaroK are playing their best StarCraft II at the moment. Both reached the finals of major tournaments in 2022, but have since regressed back to the middle of the pack in the EPT 2023/24 season. That’s very worrisome for MYG in the top-heavy format of the WTL playoffs.

Cyan and Strange are limited as third options, but there are definitely ways for them to contribute. Cyan put himself on everyone’s radar lately, beating Ryung and DRG in the IEM Katowice qualifiers to book a ticket to Poland. Going by his games, it doesn’t feel like it was a total fluke, so maybe he can continue to surprise in the WTL playoffs. As for Strange, he was rather helpful as a PvP one-trick during the regular season, and he has a puncher’s chance of stealing a 1-1 off of any Protoss who’s not herO or MaxPax.

Here’s the best case scenario I can paint for MYG: RagnaroK and SHIN have been hard at work practicing for IEM Katowice, and have pulled up their form after disappointing outings at EPT Winter/Atlanta. Cyan’s IEM Katowice qualifier performance is 100% for real, and he’s a legit wild card. No one will have read the scouting report on Strange despite him cheesing in nearly all of his PvP games, and someone will still lose to his all-ins somehow (it’s funny how often this actually happens).

Team Liquid (#6 seed): 20 points, 6-5 record, +10 map differential

Roster and regular season records:

As mentioned in many WTL articles, Liquid has a maddening, years-long tendency of underperforming in the WTL. Before, I might have been able to explain their poor results by saying their players weren’t quite as good as people thought, especially when Clem was starting to rise in 2020~21. But now, after seeing new signee Cure—a proven winner in the WTL—put up a disappointing 6-5 record, I think Liquid may actually be cursed in this competition.

On paper, it’s pretty clear that this team should be a championship contender. They’ve got two ace-quality players in Cure and Clem, which has historically been enough to get most WTL teams into the top three. Moreover, Clem is one of the few aces in the entire league who stands a chance of beating Serral 2-0 (it’s probably just him, Solar, and Dark on a great day), which is immensely important with BASILISK barring the last gate to the finals.

The support players for Liquid have been very inconsistent in the past, but this season Elazer has looked great while putting up a 9-3 record. SKillous will probably end up as the odd man out in the playoffs, but perhaps Liquid will find an opportunity for him if there’s a good match-up for him on the Protoss-favoring Radhuset Station.

Ultimately, it comes down to whether or not Liquid can play up to their potential in the playoffs. I thought Clem had gotten the Korean TvT monkey off of his back after defeating Maru at Gamers8 and GuMiho at EPT Winter, but he went right ahead and lost 0-2 to Ryung in his first WTL match after Atlanta. But it’s not just about TvT that has vexed Clem in the WTL—Liquid’s last two playoff exits were largely in part due to Clem losing to RagnaroK and Creator.

Since I’m not convinced Clem has turned a corner in the WTL, I think it falls on Cure to carry Liquid team into the playoffs. Even if his regular season was so-so, Liquid will be hoping the championship-winning Cure from Winter 2022 shows up.

Will Cure—one of the WTL’s proven clutch players—help Liquid get over the hump? Or will he also succumb to Liquid’s WTL curse?

PSISTORM Gaming (#5 seed): 20 points, 7-4 record, +15 map differential

Roster and regular season records:[/b]

We typically don’t say teams in fifth place made an underdog run, especially not when they have a top two Protoss player in the world. But that’s kind of how it feels for PSISTORM Gaming, who lost their #2 player Spirit halfway through the season. However, the entire team responded to this loss by collectively upping their performances, and they managed to overtake a more talented TL roster in the final week.

MaxPax and Gerald both had their best WTL seasons ever, with MaxPax being the clear best Protoss with a 20-5 record while Gerald played like a true 2nd option by going 11-9 (he’s achieved a better win-rate before, but with much fewer games played). Even Namshar, who PSISTORM called up from their B-team as an emergency replacement, massively overperformed by taking 1-1 ties off of herO and Firefly.

Alas, listing everything that went right for PSISTORM only makes me more worried that they’re going to come crashing down to earth in the playoffs. Gerald has historically been an up and down player in the WTL, and I’m afraid that the other shoe might drop in the playoffs. Also, surely opponents won’t let Namshar keep Namshar-ing?

Still, all of that might be moot if this is the tournament where MaxPax finally completes the traditional rite of passage for great players and multi-kills some f***ing teams. We’ve seen players like Bunny, RagnaroK, Oliviera, and Dream hit the 3-kill mark in the WTL, so there’s every reason to believe that a player on MaxPax’s level could do it as well.

That’s what we should all be looking out for in the earlier rounds of the playoffs: a series of breakout performances from MaxPax. Make sure to have a good alibi the next time someone asks you “what were you doing on January 6th?”—”I was watching MaxPax all-kill Dragon KaiZi Gaming.”

Shopify Rebellion (#4 seed): 24 points, 8-3 record, +18 map differential

Roster and regular season records:

Shopify is back in the playoffs after a truly bizarre Summer season where they finished in 8th place. Back then, the Rebellion was the fairy godmother to the two Cinderella teams, donating wins to both SSLT and Platinum Heroes. This season, Shopify is back in the playoffs where they belong, with ace player ByuN backed up by a three-player rotation that has no weak links.

Depth is hard to come by in the WTL, and Shopify’s strength at the #3 player spot has been a huge advantage in the regular season. However, the knock on Shopify is that come the playoffs, #1 option ByuN isn’t quite on the same level as the other teams’ aces. It’s not just that his individual league results aren’t as good as a Dark or a Cure—he also has a history of playing poorly in the WTL playoffs. In four playoff runs for Shopify, he’s only put up a 3-8 record—a stark contrast to his impressive regular season showings. So, even though he’s put up a fantastic 18-4 record so far (it would have won him our best Terran award if not for Maru’s ridiculous 21-1), there’s a lot of lingering doubt as to whether he can come through when the stakes are raised.

While 3-8 is still a relatively small sample, I have some reason to believe that this playoff underperformance from ByuN is related to his troubles in other high-pressure situations. The WTL regular season is akin to online cups, and you’ll generally see the kings of the EPT weeklies perform well there. However, the playoffs are a different animal, and you see some of those cup kings falter (not all) while the ‘know-how-to-win’ players from individual leagues step up.

As far as Lambo, Scarlett, and Harstem go, they’re about as good as you can hope for in terms of non-ace roster players in the WTL. IF ByuN can carry the brunt of the burden, then everyone else is capable of being a dangerous Proleague-style sniper who’s prepared for a specific opponent or map. Lambo, in particular, is one of those aforementioned ‘winners’ in the WTL playoff format, and actually has the best playoff record among all Shopify players at 8-9 (it seems to suit his analytical style). However, if ByuN falls flat again, it’s highly unlikely the other three Rebels can carry their team to a win, especially against the teams Shopify is likely to face.

Dragon KaiZi Gaming (#3 seed): 24 points, 8-3 record, +22 map differential

Roster and regular season records:

In previous years, DKZ/DPG finishing the regular season in third place would have been the result of apathy. They’ve rarely gone all out to claim the #1 seed, frequently resting players and fielding line-ups that were below full-strength. However, this season they’ve landed in third place despite having their best players available for almost every match (Jieshi played just once in week one; DPG won). That’s just how much the landscape has changed after BASILISK and ONSYDE joined and gave DPG two legitimate equals in the title race.

Well, they would have been equals up to last season, but this time around, I think DPG has taken a half step back. It’s not Dark I’m worried about, as he might be the most form-immune player in the world. If there’s a big match to play, he’s going to step his game up—just like he did in the WTL’s $10,000 Korea vs World ‘showmatch’ where he 3-killed against MaxPax, Oliveira, and Clem. I also feel pretty good about Oliveira, who’s raised his level of play significantly following his post IEM Katowice slump/break. No, he’s probably never going to play like a world champion again—but he doesn’t need to. Pre-world champion Oliveira/TIME was already putting in plenty of clutch performances in the WTL.

The problem here is herO. His 2023 has been utterly confounding—his results in major tournaments took a nosedive after IEM Katowice, but his success in smaller online tournaments suggested he was still maintaining a very high baseline level of play. A comparison I’ve used often is ByuN, with both players playing wildly differently depending on the stakes. Unfortunately for herO, I believe the WTL playoffs ‘count’ as a major tournament. On the bright side, this bizarre slump has to end some time, right?

Still, when you consider the upside potential Dark and Oliviera have if their ‘condition’ is good, as the Koreans say it, DKZ remains very much in the championship mix.

BASILISK (#2 seed): 26 points, 10-1 record, +22 map differential

Roster and regular season records:

For the second straight regular season, BASILISK have finished in second place with 26 points. Then, perhaps it’s not so surprising that the individual performances of the players were pretty similar.

Once again, Serral hard-carried BASILISK through the regular season, going 21-4 in maps and winning 3 ace matches. He had to do all this heavy lifting because Reynor once again fell short of expectations. No, Reynor was hardly a 50% win-rate player like the 50/50-man jokes imply, but his 16-7 record was still disappointing compared to MaxPax’s 20-5 or Solar’s 19-4 (most fans would consider Reynor to be equal to those two at worst). Trigger was the team’s weak point with a sub 50% win-rate, but looking at the other eleven teams’ rosters, he was still around average for a 3rd option player.

Amid the similarities, there were some small but important differences between Summer and Winter. Serral’s record went from an insane 23-1 to 21-4, with Maru, Dark, FireFly, and Wayne all holding him to 1-1 ties. While that was understandable with Maru and Dark, it’s worrisome that FireFly and Wayne managed to steal a map each. One of Serral’s greatest strengths is that he almost never loses to weaker players, which was on full display in the previous playoffs when he all-killed ABYDOS and its plucky band of overachievers (7-0 map score). If Serral is merely dominant and not hyper-dominant, then BASILISK might have to roll the dice with Reynor a few more times than they’d like.

Not that it’s bad to roll the dice with Reynor. It’s just that it can be an… …’exciting’ experience? He’s spent enough seasons in WTL for fans to know that world champion Reynor shows up at his own pleasure.

On the positive side, Trigger did show improvement despite having an almost identical record to the Summer season. He was actually BASILISK’s savior on a couple of occasions, getting a big 2-0 against Oliveira when both Serral and Reynor tied 1-1 against DKZ, and holding ByuN to a 1-1 draw against Shopify. After going 0-2 against Ryung in his first ever WTL playoffs, the only way for him to go is up.

All-in-all, I still think BASILISK are the championship favorites by a tiny margin over ONSYDE. A 1% weaker Serral is still the closest thing you can get to a sure win in StarCraft, and that carries an immense amount of weight. As for Reynor’s inconsistency, that’s a problem a lot of other playoff teams are dealing with on their own roster. Clem, ByuN, herO, and dare I even say Maru are also not guaranteed to play up to their reputations. As for trigger, any maps he takes are just a bonus—we all know that this team’s championship case lies with the two EU Zergs.

ONSYDE Gaming (#1 seed): 31 points, 10-1 record, +37 map differential

Roster and regular season records:

Reigning champions ONSYDE outdid themselves this season, breaking the points record AND map differential record on their way to first place.

The star for ONSYDE was Maru, who put up his best ever regular season record with 21 map wins and 1 loss. This must be hard for Maru fans to process, considering his extended slump since winning Code S Season 2 in July. Since then, he went out of Gamers8 in the RO8, got eliminated in the RO16 of Code S Season 3, and even dropped out of DH Atlanta as early as the RO24. However, in the WTL, he was our easy pick for regular season MVP (did I write this all out at length, just to infuriate Nakajin? maybe).

Ryung has also saved his best StarCraft II for the WTL. While he basically hasn’t made any notable individual league runs since 2022, he came through in WTL Winter with a very solid 12-10 record and a number of clutch performances (1-1 vs Reynor, 2-0 vs Clem). Solar is the only ONSYDE player who has been awesome in both individual and team settings, pairing a career-first Code S championship with a superb 19-4 WTL record in the same time frame.

The case for ONSYDE to win the championship hinges on two beliefs. The first is that the regular season version of their roster is 100% for real, with no underlying problems in Maru and Ryung’s form that could emerge in the pressure cooker of the playoffs.

I’m 50/50 on that being the case for Maru. His 21-1 record doesn’t hold up well to scrutiny, as his slate of opponents was definitely on the softer side. His individual tournament results seem like a much better indicator of his skill level. On the other hand, Maru once led Jin Air to the 2016 Proleague title during a year when he was absolutely abysmal in individual leagues. No offense to the WTL, but Proleague was kind of a bigger deal—winning this title should be easier in comparison, right? RIGHT?

As for Ryung, I’m totally sold on him continuing to be great in the playoffs. He’s been largely nondescript in individual leagues for the last two years (except one feelgood run at IEM Katowice in 2021), but has regularly put in ‘how in the hell is he doing this?’ seasons in the WTL. He almost dragged Team GP to the postseason on one occasion, while last season, he actually outperformed ONSYDE teammate Solar (at least in the regular season).

The other key belief is that Solar really does have some kind of edge over Serral. This reputation has been built on just three series: Solar’s wins over Serral at Gamers8 (3-0), in the WTL playoffs (2-0), and then again in the WTL Korea vs World showmatch (3-2). Part of me thinks this is a laughably small sample, and makes me want to point to the fact that Serral was 13-4 against Solar in lifetime series before that. Then again, we almost never get big samples in StarCraft II, forcing us to go with our eyes and vibes. And, I must say, the vibes for Solar have been immaculate.

Prediction

Round 1: Team Liquid > Mystery Gaming
Round 2: Team Liquid > PSISTORM Gaming
Round 3: Team Liquid > Shopify Rebellion
Round 4: Dragon KaiZi Gaming > Team Liquid
Round 5: BASILISK > Dragon KaiZi Gaming
Grand Finals: BASILISK > ONSYDE

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• Source: https://tl.net/forum/starcraft-2/619630-wtl-winter-2023-playoffs-preview