by Wax
The ESL Pro Tour finally returns to a live stage after nearly two years of online competition, and it’s making a comeback in the biggest way possible. IEM Katowice 2022 returns to its traditional venue of the Spodek stadium in Poland, where over $500,000 of prize money will be on the line in the grand finale to the 2021/22 season of StarCraft II.
The World Championship will begin with a one-day play-in stage, where sixteen players will compete for the final four spots in the main event. The 2021 event saw Korean players dominate the play-in stage and earn all four spots—a predictable result given Korea’s number of seeds and the strength of the delegation at the time.
This time, however, the competition in the RO36 looks to be much closer, as a slew of retirements has depleted the Korean ranks. While players like ByuN, herO, and DongRaeGu still stand out as favorites, the games project to be much more even overall. Let’s take a look at the contestants:
ByuN – #15 EPT Korea: ByuN has already fought his way out of the open bracket once, surviving a difficult lower bracket run at IEM Katowice 2021. While he was knocked out of his group in fifth place, it seemed like it would be the foundation for an even better 2021/22 campaign.
It hasn’t quite worked out that way. ByuN was noticeably shaky in the GSL throughout the first six months or so of the 2021/22 season, even missing out on a season of Code S entirely (albeit, after a close 2-3 loss to Cure in Code A). Despite this, he seems awfully out of place in the RO36, as he’s shown us a much improved level of play in World Team League, the ESL Weeklies, and bigger events such as TSL8 and GSL Super Tournament over the last few months. Though he still favors his signature up-tempo, multitasking-heavy, attacking style, he’s demonstrated some more range lately in playing slower paced defensive games. He currently stands as the #4 Terran in the world according to Aligulac, and seems to be a very strong favorite to advance from the slightly easier, top-half of the RO36 bracket.
Cliche as it seems, the key point for ByuN will likely be his mentality. Ever since his wrist issues were diagnosed as a psychosomatic problems and not a physical one, it’s felt more crucial than ever for him to get in the right headspace ahead of big matches. Playing in the AfreecaTV studio has exacerbated his wrist issues in the past—will the stress of travel and playing live in the biggest tournament of the season affect him even more severely? For ByuN’s sake, and for fans who want to see the best StarCraft II possible, I hope that he stays calm under pressure.
Percival – #21 EPT Korea: Unfortunately for Percival, there’s no getting around the fact that he wouldn’t have been here if not for a slew of Korean player retirements in the 2021/2022 season. One Code S appearance earned him barely enough points to slip into the event, but one has to think that it will be more of a learning experience than anything else.
That said, Percival does have a chance to throw a wrench in someone else’s plans. He’s shown us some rather creative builds in the GSL—including his initial IEM opponent of ByuN! While we don’t know the depth of Percival’s preparation, it would be reasonable to expect to see him pull out some nifty builds against ByuN at least (Percival managed to steal a map but lost 1-2 in Code S), and perhaps more down the line. Also, you can’t forget that Percival was a part of Team GP’s magical underdog run in the last World Team League, contributing with a huge ace-match victory against Solar. If you’re a hopeless (or hopeful) romantic, you might be optimistic that some of that spark remains.
Ryung – #25 EPT Korea: Ryung is the absolute last place seed in the entire event, coming in as a replacement after Armani declined to participate for COVID safety reasons. That said, you couldn’t be blamed for liking his chances better than several players above him in the standings. While it’s been over a year since he returned from military service, Ryung only really started to recover his old form toward the tail end of 2021—after his biggest chances to earn EPT points in the GSL had already passed.
The results Ryung has put up since the fall of 2021 are quite encouraging: He qualified for a GSL Super Tournament and carried a heavy load for Team GP as their ace in the WTL. To be fair, those are rather mediocre results compared to some of the group stage players, and Ryung’s time to make an impact might be the next tournament cycle after this one. However, he’s definitely not a player to take lightly just because of his results on paper.
Probe – #1 EPT Oceania & Rest of Asia: Probe has been the Oceanic scene’s most consistent player since 2017, reaching eleven regional finals over the last four years. Unfortunately, his international level results have been rather lackluster during the pandemic era, but it’s not a fair reflection of his skills. He’s consistently been given a brutal seed in DHM Season Finals events—getting eliminated by Maru and Reynor is hardly a result you can hold against him.
I think Probe could have a Has-like opportunity in the Katowice play-in stage (more on Has in a sec). What I mean by that is Has was also getting atomized by top title contenders in multiple DHM Season Finals, but once he got a chance to play against slightly more forgiving opponents in the World Team League, he got to flex his skills and entertain the fans with his zany builds. In a similar vein, I think Probe will take advantage of this opportunity to remind us of what he’s capable of in international competition.
Has – #2 EPT Taiwan/Hong Kong/Macau/Japan: Speaking of Has and the WTL… the mad scientist has still got it. Whether it was a ridiculous DT into triple expand builds or a blatant proxy under the nose of his opponent, he showed us that he can still get wins in the most audacious ways.
It does bode somewhat poorly for Has that the RO36 bracket is lacking in Zergs—the Swarm tends to be the faction that’s most vulnerable to Has’ unique brand of play. He’s less effective in PvP and PvT—his approach often looks like “proxy everything and pray something sticks”—and the players at Katowice will be more than aware of his reputation. Thus, while Has has a puncher’s chance of making it to the group stages, I’d definitely place him among the underdogs here. Still, you don’t watch SC2’s resident agent of chaos expecting victory—the only thing that’s guaranteed is utter mayhem.
Cyan – #2 EPT China: We had to sweat it out until a week before the tournament, but it’s a relief to see that Cyan will be competing in the RO36 after getting his visa approved. As a reminder of what kind of ruckus Cyan can raise in a big tournament like IEM Katowice: Last year
, he took down Scarlett 0-2 in the first round, leading to her eventual elimination.
Since then, Cyan has only improved further. In the most recent DHM China finals, he flexed his PvT to prevent TIME from winning an eight straight championship. Additionally, he’s been serving up a sprinkling of upsets in the various EPT cups, even taking down DreamHack Masters regulars while playing cross-server on Europe. Non-TIME players from China are often an afterthought in StarCraft II, but Cyan is a real threat to upset even more high-profile players during the BO3 rounds of the play-in.
Kelazhur – #2 EPT Latin America: The race for the #2 seed out of EPT Latin America was quite fierce during the 2021/22 season, with Erik, Cham, and Kelazhur all having a reasonable shot at winning an IEM Katowice spot. Ultimately, Kelazhur’s narrow 3-2 victory over Cham in the losers’ final of DHM Fall was the deciding factor, giving him the points lead needed to punch his ticket to the World Championship.
There have been times when Kelazhur was known as a player with an arsenal of creative builds, but these days, strong standard play seems to be his calling card. His most impressive match result in recent memory—a 1-1 tie against Rogue in the WTL—came from that approach, as he hunkered down and outlasted his opponent’s waves of Roach-Ravager.
The problem for Kelazhur is that his match-up strengths are quite uneven at the moment—Aligulac.com ratings put his TvZ as his strongest match-up by a solid margin, while his TvT is the weakest. With just two Zergs in the entire RO36 bracket and none in his starting half of the bracket, Kelazhur faces an uphill battle to reach the RO24.
uThermal – #12 EPT Europe: Team Liquid’s long-tenured Terran comes in on extremely short notice, replacing RagnaroK who could not clear his pre-departure COVID test. While uThermal expressed his gratitude to be afforded such an opportunity on Twitter, he also made it clear that he was lacking in practice due to the unexpected nature of the call-up. Considering that all the other players will have prepared intensely over the last few months, it seems obvious that uThermal is at a significant disadvantage here, regardless of his baseline skill level. On the other hand, we’ve often heard players say that playing without pressure or expectations allowed them to fully display their skills—could this be an unexpected boon for the often stressed-out uThermal?
Narrative wise, he definitely has one big thing going for him: he’s the original, legendary “Replacement Man.” Back at IEM Shanghai 2016, uThermal also stepped in as a replacement after PiLiPiLi experienced visa issues. There, uThermal was able to make a marvelous run (defeating Snute, Elazer, viOlet, and Neeb) and win the first major championship of his career. While there are many other Replacement Men in the RO36 bracket, perhaps the OG will be the one who shows them how it’s done.
Nice – #1st EPT Taiwan/Hong Kong/Macau/Japan: One sign of how perilous this year’s RO36 bracket is would be the number of players who’ve managed to steal upsets off of top title contenders in major events. In the case of Nice, he achieved that with a 2-0 against Rogue in the DHM Summer Finals. He did it in straight-up games without any kind of ping advantage—the only edge he had was that Rogue was being typically Rogue-y (Rogue ultimately took his revenge in the rematch).
That said, Nice is one of the players who has downward momentum headed into Katowice, as he hasn’t put up the most impressive results in the ESL weeklies or the winter season of World Team League. As with many of the other underdogs in the RO36, I think Nice is a big threat to win upsets in the BO3 rounds of the competition, but it will be tough for him to go all the way in the best-of-five qualification rounds.
herO – #23 EPT Korea: herO is the seeding-wrecker of the play-in stage, coming in with the 2nd lowest EPT points but perhaps the highest skill level of anyone participating in the RO36. After finishing his military service and returning to StarCraft II in June, herO has enjoyed one of the fastest recoveries of any post-military player. Mind you, when I say recovered, I don’t mean as the rock-solid HotS version of herO. This is still very much the LotV version of herO—full of nasty all-ins, weird strategies, and an uncanny ability to find timing-windows to bust through an opponent’s defenses.
herO’s major tournament results have been fairly solid in the last few months, earning two top-eight finishes in GSL Super Tournaments. Also, he’s been absolutely killing it in WTL and ESL Weekly competitions, climbing up to 16th place in the overall Aligulac.com standings and 5th place in the Protoss standings. As I see it, herO is the #1 favorite to make it out of the RO36 and reach the group stage.
SKillous – #10 EPT Europe: SKillous is another one of the replacement men from Europe, filling in after MaxPax and MarineLorD opted out of the event. Though the Russian Protoss put up good-but-not-great results in DHM: Europe—with a top eight finish being his best—he does seem to be upping his game headed into Katowice. Similar to players like herO and Creator, the ESL Weeklies have given him a chance to show his skills against some of the stronger group-stage players. Notably, he took out Reynor 2-0 in consecutive weeks in January (playing largely straight-up games).
I’ve referenced the weeklies a lot in this preview—obviously they’re quite different from major international events like Katowice, but I still think they’re a pretty solid indicator of players’ general form. At the very least, it’s enough to make me glad that SKillous was the next man up in Europe, and I’m cautiously optimistic about what he might get done here.
Elazer – #8 EPT Europe: Elazer recently gave us a great reminder of his perennial wild card status at DHM Last Chance, taking out Rogue 2-1 and going 1-2 against Zest (he may have even won 2-1 if not for some bad scouting reads). Alas, consistency is the key in this kind of gauntlet bracket, and that hasn’t been one of Elazer’s strengths over the 2021/22 cycle. He’s had DHM Europe events where he’s finished in the top six, and others where he shockingly missed the playoffs entirely. On a sentimental level, you have to wish that the best version of Elazer shows up for the tournament so the Polish audience has someone to really get behind.
It might be a stroke of good fortune that Elazer has fallen on the Protoss-heavy side of the bracket, as formidable as those Protosses may be. As predictable as Elaz
er’s ZvP all-ins might be, what’s wrong with being predictable when it still works most of the time?
Astrea – #3 EPT North America: Astrea had quite an impressive EPT 2020/21 season for a rising player, earning a group stage seed at IEM Katowice 2021 and finishing 2-3 with victories over Trap and Zest.
On the face of it, it seems like he’s come down since then, starting in the RO36 after being held to three consecutive 3rd place finishes in DHM: North America. At least according to Astrea in his recent interview with TL.net it’s not the biggest cause for concern. His slightly worse North American results are due to losing a handful of tight BO5 series to Scarlett and Neeb—he’s actually climbed up the Aligulac.com rankings, and his 22nd place position puts him higher than even some of the group stage players.
In any case, Astrea has become a bit of a mystery in high-profile international competition, as he hasn’t had any DHM Season Finals appearances (due to his 3rd place finishes in NA) in 2021/22, and he’s heavily reduced his participation in the WTL. At least going by his ESL Weekly Cup results—where he’s looked competitive against several of the group stage players at IEM Katowice—he should have a fighting chance of making it through the RO36.
Creator – #19 EPT Korea: 2021 was absolutely brutal for Creator as he failed to qualify for even a single Code S tournament. But surprisingly, from solely an IEM Katowice perspective, his Code S results aren’t very concerning. The Team NV Protoss has brought his form up drastically in the lead-up to the World Championship, qualifying for the two winter GSL Super Tournaments and placing high in a number of ESL Open Cups.
Similar to ByuN in the upper half, Creator’s mentality could be just as important as his skill-level. After a recent Super Tournament victory, Creator used a rare post-match interview opportunity to talk about the nervousness he feels in important matches (seeming to allude to his narrow 1-2 losses to Dark and Scarlett in TSL8), and how he’s been getting better at playing at his normal level in such settings. Considering that he has the 5th highest Aligulac.com rating among the players in the play-in stage, he should be one of the favorites to advance to the group stage1—IF he can keep play up to his potential.
Spirit – #11 EPT Europe: The artist-formerly-known-as-souL comes in as the final European representative. His DHM Europe 2021 results were solid but not remarkable, going top 16, top 8, and top 16 over the course of three seasons.
Interestingly enough, Spirit shined the most in a competition outside of Europe, in December’s TSL8. There, he beat the recently crowned Code S champion Cure in a shocking 2-1 upset, and took down DongRaeGu 2-1 before suffering a 0-2 loss to herO where he put up a great fight (Spirit was in winning positions, but herO’s experience advantage in tight situations allowed him to pull through with a victory). Those games made you realize why Spirit gets praise from his peers (well, at least when they’re not cyber-bullying him), and make you wonder if he’s a sneaky underdog in this RO36 bracket. At the same time, he also seemed to freeze up when he took leads against stronger players (nearly blowing an unloseable game against Cure in the aforementioned TSL8 win), so it will be vital for him to keep his composure. As with Elazer, I do feel a bit of bias here—what’s the point of returning to live StarCraft if the host country’s fans don’t have someone to cheer on?
DongRaeGu – #13 EPT Korea: DRG is the #1 seed in the entire RO36 bracket, with a top eight finish in Code S Season 2 earning him a good chunk of his EPT points over the 2021/22 season. However, his most memorable result is almost certainly his top eight finish in January’s DHM Last Chance, where he escaped the group stages by defeating Serral in two BO3 series with a combined 4-1 score. DRG’s biggest strength post-military has been his swarming macro play in ZvT, but his two wins over Serral revealed that his series-planning and mind-gaming were top-notch as well. That probably won’t factor in too much during the RO36—DongRaeGu should be favored against most of his potential opponents in straight-up games—but it could make for some unexpected twists should he make it to the group stages.
Despite his #1 seed status, I wouldn’t say DRG is a shoo-in to the group stages. His early game defense can be hit or miss against aggressive Protoss players, and there’s plenty of those in this RO36 bracket.
Predictions
I see two heavy favorites to advance in herO and ByuN, both of whom wouldn’t look an inch out of place if they had been seeded directly into the RO24. They’re conveniently placed on opposite sides of the bracket, so I think there’s a pretty high chance that they get in without facing each other.
The fight for the remaining two spots should be very competitive, with not much separating the other fourteen players. Some fans might argue that DongRaeGu should be placed on herO and ByuN’s level, but his inconsistent all-in defense in ZvP concerns me when 8/16 of the players in the bracket are Protoss. While I will ultimately predict DongRaeGu to go through, it’s with a much lesser degree of confidence than with herO and ByuN.
The final spot in predictions is very tough, with nearly everyone having a fighting chance. If the last qualifying match happens to be a BO5 PvP, there really isn’t anyone I could rule out. Ultimately, I’m going to go with Elazer as my final pick to go through to the group stage. This is partially a ‘heart’ pick—as I said above, I really want to get the full experience of a live event with a partisan home audience cheering their player on. But besides that, I like Elazer’s experience advantage over some of the other candidates. He’s sneakily one of the most experienced players among the participants—especially in world championship-tier events—and I trust him the most in a high-stakes moment.
Prediction: ByuN, herO, DongRaeGu, and Elazer advance.*
*I’m excited to read comments about how this is mathematically impossible given the alternating double-elimination bracket.
