Will 2024 be the year IPOs finally come roaring back, after a more than two-year lull? That seems unlikely, but then again, all venture-backed startups have to exit sometime, so at least some companies will likely decide to head to the public markets this year.

With that in mind, we once again offer up some ideas for companies we think would be top contenders when the public markets eventually reopen for new tech listings.

(You can see our predictions from 2022 and 2023 here, if you want to see just how wrong we’ve been in years past.)

Enterprise tech and cybersecurity

Arctic Wolf: Late in 2022, the Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based cybersecurity company raised $401 million in convertible notes led by existing investor Owl Rock Capital. Convertible notes work like a short-term loan, but these notes are repaid to the investor at a later point in equity — i.e. after an IPO — typically at a discount. However, there has to be an event to turn those notes to equity. That’s why we’re thinking after more than a year, maybe it’s time for the managed security provider to test the public market waters. Arctic Wolf is seasoned — it was founded in 2012 — and in July 2021 raised $150 million in a Series F, which took its valuation from $1.3 billion to $4.3 billion. At that time, then-CEO Brian NeSmith said an IPO was likely the next logical move. However, maybe that’s the problem — those valuations from 2021 are hard to reconcile now.

Databricks: If we keep putting Databricks on this list, eventually we’ll be right. In all honesty, we kinda doubt the San Francisco-based data and AI company will see an IPO in 2024. The simple reason is: it just doesn’t need to do it. The 10-year-old company has more than enough investors willing to support it in the private market, and who would go public when they don’t have to? But maybe this is a good time for an AI-related company to go public while investor appetite is there. The company hit a $43 billion valuation after raising a $685 million — per a filing — Series I led by funds and accounts advised by T. Rowe Price Associates in September. The company talked about surpassing a milestone of $1 billion in annual revenue this summer and has in the past hinted coyly at a potential IPO. It also just made a huge acquisition this year, buying OpenAI competitor MosaicML for $1.3 billion. Databricks has significant investors to eventually appease — the company has raised more than $3.5 billion, per Crunchbase — as well as deep technology, as it creates tools and products to help companies view both structured and unstructured data in a single location without moving between different systems. Maybe 2024 will be the year.

Rubrik: This one may be a layup, but we’ll see. In September, Bloomberg reported cloud and data security startup Rubrik was interested in going public as early as the fourth quarter of 2023. That would make sense. The company is nearly a decade old and has raised significant cash from the likes of Microsoft, Bain Capital Ventures and Khosla Ventures. Last January, the company also reported it had surpassed $500 million in software subscription annual recurring revenue and appointed Mark McLaughlin, former Palo Alto Networks chairman and CEO, to its board of directors. Expanding your board with those that have knowledge of how to run a public company and hitting milestones can sometimes point toward an IPO.

ServiceTitan: The cloud-based software provider for residential and commercial HVAC, plumbing, electrical and other field-service businesses has been rumored to be sniffing around the public markets for a while now. In September of 2021, Reuters reported the company was talking to investment banks and law firms for a potential IPO. Months before that, it raised a $200 million round led by Thoma Bravo at a $9.3 billion valuation. The 11-year-old company has other big-name investors, including Sequoia Capital and Tiger Global Management, which has helped it raise about $1.1 billion, per Crunchbase. Those investors likely eventually want some liquidity back for their investment. ServiceTitan also is not getting any younger, being founded in 2012 and in the last few years it has made a handful of acquisitions — which can often be a lead-up to an eventual IPO. Perhaps it is having a hard time living up to that 2021 valuation, but regardless, the clock is ticking.

— Chris Metinko

Fintech and banking

Stripe: As we’re out and about in Silicon Valley, we hear a lot of buzz and interest in investor circles about 13-year-oId Stripe maybe finally going public in 2024. The payments startup’s current value is $50 billion (though down from the $95 billion it saw after its Series H funding in 2021) thanks to a $6.5 billion funding it raised last year to cover early employee stock option costs. A possible clue that a long-awaited IPO for Stripe could be nigh: The San Francisco-based company brought veteran CFO Steffan Tomlinson — who had previously taken Confluent and Palo Alto Networks public — on board in September 2023.

Klarna: Buy now, pay later payment services Klarna from Stockholm is in the process of  setting up a U.K. holding company, which signals a potential option to list in the U.K. However, the company says it has no immediate plans to go public. It slashed its valuation by more than 85% to $6.7 billion in mid-2022. However Affirm, a U.S. competitor, has seen its stock rise by more than 300% this year to a value over $12 billion, which one would think would at least make 18-year-old Klarna consider the public markets. And its investors, which includes Sequoia Capital, are surely looking for a payout sooner rather than later.

Starling Bank: Among the neobanks, Starling Bank in the U.K. seems to be poised to go public first, with lots of strong numbers underlying its business. The company, now on the cusp of being a decade old, posted profits of $243 million for the year ending in March 2023, growing sixfold year over year. The company received a U.K. banking license in 2016. CEO Anne Boden stepped down in May to hand the reins to COO John Mountain, who will be the interim CEO. Starling is also said to have 4 million accounts across four different account types. Other challenger banks in Europe include Revolut, Monzo, N26 and Atom Bank.

— Gené Teare

Checkout.com: The London-based company says it’s in no hurry to check out to the public markets, but if its biggest competitor, Stripe, does, maybe Checkout.com will also get in line? The e-commerce payments startup has now raised $1.8 billion from investors including Dragoneer, Insight Partners, Tiger Global and Coatue — most recently a $1 billion round in January 2022 at a valuation of $40 billion. But CEO Guillaume Pousaz told TechCrunch in December 2022 that the company had lowered its internal valuation to $11 billion. The move was to reprice shares for employees and not a downround, he said — in fact, Pousaz said then, Checkout.com was in no hurry to raise additional funding. But investors who have poured money into the now 12-year-old company surely want to get returns and liquidity some time, right? (It’s also worth noting that the company reportedly saw numerous C-suite execs depart last year and laid off dozens of employees — which could either be seen as a sign of trouble, or that the company is making the sort of cost-cutting moves public market investors might want to see.)

Plaid: This is the third year in a row we’ve put the San Francisco-based startup on this list, but this time we really mean it! Now, 11-year-old Plaid, which connects user bank accounts to fintech apps, has certainly been dropping clues about its desire to go public since a planned $5 billion sale to Visa was scrapped in 2021 following regulatory issues. Plaid CEO Zachary Perret told Fortune in November that “an IPO is certainly an aspiration” and that the company would consider either a traditional IPO or a direct listing. The same month, the company hired former Expedia CFO Eric Hart as its first chief financial officer — the sort of move that always gets tongues wagging about IPO plans. The company has raised more than $734 million from investors, most recently at a $13.4 billion valuation in 2021.

— Marlize van Romburgh

Cleantech

Redwood Materials: The battery recycling company seems to fit a lot of the criteria that public investors like. It has a prominent founder and CEO (former Tesla CTO JB Strabuel). It has attracted $1.8 billion in equity funding from high-profile late-stage investors including Goldman Sachs and T. Rowe Price. And it’s an area where, with the right technology and scaling methodology, it’s hard to envision a real cap on potential demand. With that in mind, we wouldn’t be shocked to see the 6-year-old Nevada-based company test the waters for a potential offering next year.

— Joanna Glasner

Retail and travel

Navan: Navan, formerly known as TripActions, reportedly submitted a confidential filing for a public offering in September 2022. The corporate travel and expense management software provider has yet to file publicly for an IPO, but there’s reason to believe it’ll do so in 2024. For one, the 8-year-old, Palo Alto, California-based company has raised roughly $1 billion in equity funding and $1.2 billion in debt funding over the years, with lead venture backers like Andreessen Horowitz, Greenoaks, and Coatue, who’d certainly appreciate an exit. More recently, the company laid off 5% of staff last month in a move reportedly aimed at speeding its path to profitability.

Turo: The peer-to-peer car rental marketplace sure would like to go public. It originally filed to go public in January 2022. But unlike others who relinquished IPO dreams when market conditions turned, San Francisco-based Turo is still revving to go. The 14-year-old company has consistently submitted amended filings to the SEC, including the most recent in mid-November. For the first nine months of last year, the company had $666 million in revenue, up nearly 20% from the year-ago period.

— Joanna Glasner

Shein: We have to include this one on the list, of course. In November, Shein reportedly filed confidentially for a 2024 IPO in the U.S. The Chinese fast-fashion retailer has raised some $4.1 billion from investors including Sequoia Capital China, Tiger Global Management and General Atlantic. It was last valued at $60 billion in a May 2023 funding round (though that was down more than a third from a year earlier). Shein is technically based in Singapore since it moved its headquarters there from China in 2022 in what was seen as IPO prep. Since its founding in 2008, it has shaken up the apparel industry with its low-cost clothing and other goods shipped directly to American and Western consumers from factories in Asia. Its growth has been stratospheric: It generated an estimated $23 billion in sales in 2022 and accounted for nearly one-fifth of the fast-fashion market that year. If it does go public this year, it’ll be one of the largest listings in the U.S. by a Chinese company and could well help kickstart the IPO market overall for other hopefuls.

— Marlize van Romburgh

Health tech and agtech

Strive Health: Denver-based Strive Health bills itself as a next-generation kidney care provider, with a focus on identifying conditions earlier, driving better outcomes and lowering costs. To that end, the 5-year-old company has raised $386 million to date, including a $166 million May Series C led by New Enterprise Associates. While Strive isn’t one of the “usual suspects” on IPO prediction lists, we thought it warranted inclusion due to its prodigious fundraising and fast growth, as well as because health care is an industry where it’s not uncommon to launch public offerings after a big Series C.

— Joanna Glasner

Farmers Business Network: Here’s a prediction we’re dusting off from 2022. San Carlos, California-based Farmers Business Network makes a platform that allows farmers to get up-to-date data on everything from seed selection to operations in an effort to help them minimize risk and maximize profits. The startup, which will be a decade old next year, reportedly was making moves toward an IPO in 2022. CEO Amol Deshpande told Bloomberg that year: “We’re certainly of a scale where we can IPO, without a shadow of a doubt.” Maybe this will be the year.

— Marlize van Romburgh

Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that Stripe has already filed IPO paperwork.

Illustration: Dom Guzman

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• Source: https://news.crunchbase.com/public/ipo-exits-databricks-stripe-forecast-2024/