The four-bedroom house at 49 Mackellar St is for sale for $850,000-$925,000 in Pakenham, one of the top suburbs for house sales volume in 2022.
Homeowners shut up shop as the market declined this year, “counterbalancing interest rate rises”, as Melbourne sales contracted by more than 25,000.
There were 86,206 sales across Greater Melbourne in the 12 months to December, down from 112,672 last year, marking a decline of 23 per cent, PropTrack figures show.
The drop was even more stark in regional Victoria, where annual sales fell 28 per cent from 39,413 to 28,353 off the back of Covid-driven boom migration away from the city.
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Officer South had its sales volume increase more than anywhere else in 2022. 12 Corbin Walk is for sale there for $645,000.
Sales volumes fell the most in popular pandemic spots in Melbourne’s outer east and Mornington Peninsula, led by Belgrave South (down 66 per cent), Ferny Creek (down 57 per cent), Portsea (down 56 per cent) and Somers (down 54 per cent).
But they increased in affordable outer areas as budgets were bitten by rising interest rates, with Officer South and Bonnie Brook having sales increases of more than 100 per cent.
Barry Plant chief executive Mike McCarthy said homeowners were deciding not to sell because of price falls.
“It started off very much as a sellers’ market, in the second half of the year the pendulum swung back and with every interest rate increase the pendulum swung a bit more,” he said.
“It probably had the desired effect from a treasury point of view, but has been offset to some degree with the level of stock down significantly on the start of the year … so we saw the lack of stock actually counterbalancing interest rate rises.”
Mr McCarthy said recent auction clearances rates around the 70 per cent range were usually associated with a strong market, so it had “almost been a year of contradictions”.
“If I could give buyers one piece of advice, it would be don’t try and pick the bottom of the market, buy for the long term,” he said.
“It will turn, it’s just a question of when. If I was a buyer I’d be going ‘I’m ready to buy when I find the right one’. Prices might drop more, but they might not too.”
Sales also boomed in Bonnie Brook, where 35 California Way is for sale for $1.05m-$1.1m.
The four-bedroom house at 96 Solitude Cres, Point Cook, is up for grabs for $600,000-$660,000.
Property Home Base first-home buyer specialist Julie DeBondt-Barker said demand remained high as stock contracted.
“While the interest rate hikes have reduced the number of buyers, that has not matched the level of stock,” she said.
“So prices have dropped a bit across the board, and they will probably drop a little bit more, but I don’t think they’re going to drop as far as doom and gloom predictions, I think we’ll see a levelling off in 2023, and then just a flat market.”
Advantage Property Consulting director Frank Valentic said record results were still be achieved since the market began to decline from March, just not as often.
“Properties with ‘wow factor’ are still selling well — some of them are still achieving those record and runaway results,” he said.
“Properties on main roads that aren’t north-facing, without the bells and whistles, don’t have a pool, don’t have a garage, are the ones that struggle more.
“The better properties are still performing quite well, but the B grade and C grade properties are affected more in the current market and will continue to be next year as well.”
It now takes double the time to sell a house in Bendigo, Ballarat, Geelong and LaTrobe than a year ago — but they are still some of the fastest selling regional areas in Australia.
In October last year, it was taking a median of just 19 days to sell a house in Ballarat, this October it was 51, according to PropTrack’s Regional Australia Report.
There were more sales in Mildura than anywhere else in regional Victoria this year. The four-bedroom house at 5 Remi Court is for sale for $599,000-$658,900.
Shepparton had the second most sales in regional Victoria. The three-bedroom house at 17 Davis Court is for sale for $490,000-$530,000.
In Bendigo, that figure has gone from 21 to 45; in Geelong, from 19 to 44; and in Latrobe Gippsland, 34 to 58.
Geelong and Bendigo’s figures still place them in the top 10 regional SA4 areas in the country for sales speed, at numbers three and seven respectively. Hume’s 47 is number 10.
Ballarat has had a 36 per cent decline in the number of potential buyers per listing year-on-year, Geelong: 37 per cent, and Warrnambool and South West 38 per cent.
PropTrack economist Eleanor Creagh said public health restrictions easing and interest rate rises had led to slower growth and elevated uncertainty in the regional market.
“While it remains a relative bright spot in the current housing market, regional home prices are falling,” she said.
“Regional prices are expected to continue to decline amid monetary tightening and reduced net migration flows to regional areas.
“However, regional markets are likely to continue to exhibit a slower pace of price falls compared to capital cities. They remain buoyed by shifting lifestyle priorities, migration trends and affordability advantages that are still in play.”
The six-bedroom house at 8 Scarborough Court, Tarneit, set a new suburb record of $1.84m.
Point Cook, Pakenham, Tarneit and Craigieburn all notched more than 1000 house sales in the 12 months to November, while rebounding inner city unit markets let the charge for apartments.
Barry Plant Tarneit director Rick O’Halloran said prices in his outer western patch were supported by strong migration and scale of turnover.
“There is hesitancy with sellers to see what 2023 looks like before they do make that decision, if we do start seeing volumes hit the market in large terms, that might have an impact,” he said.
Victoria’s property market is expected to start the year in buyers’ favour, with Reserve Bank decisions on interest rates key to when conditions begin to shift back towards the middle.
First-time sellers Alex and Emily Thorley with their dog Boris, 2, are trying to sell their Mentone unit amid difficult market conditions. It passed in last week. Picture: Ian Currie
MAKING MOVES
Emily and Alex Thorley are hoping someone falls in love with their first home in Mentone the way they did.
The two-bedroom unit at 4/20 Patty St is for private sale for $700,000 — just a touch more than they bought it for three years ago — after passing in at auction last weekend.
“We’re trying to get a bigger house, so need to sell our little one,” Ms Leckie said.
“This is where our life was heading so we made the decision, and thought we’d made the right one, but obviously with the market we’re not sure.”
The couple decided they were going to list the property a couple of months ago as they hunt for more space with Boris the groodle, 2.
“We’ve loved the location, we’ve loved how open and bright it is. We got through all the Covid years in that house and have many fun and crazy memories in that house,” she said.
“And we’ve loved being so close to the beach, too, we’re 1km away so out walks have been amazing, especially during that lockdown period.”
Ray White Cheltenham director Kevin Chokshi said there was “a reluctancy to commit to anything” among buyers.
“Some people are in the mindframe that there might be more on the market next year. But if the current stats are anything to go by there won’t be much more, so if you like something and its location you’ve got to jump on it,” he said.
“It doesn’t matter if a property is $20,000 cheaper if it’s not suitable.”
SALES VOLUMES
12 months to 30/11/2021, 12 months to 30/11/2022, % change in sales volumes
Greater Melbourne, 112,672, 86,206, -23%
Rest of Vic, 39,413, 28,353, -28%
BIGGEST INCREASE AND DECREASE IN SALES, MELBOURNE
12 months to 30/11/2021, 12 months to 30/11/2022, % change in sales volumes
Officer South, 12, 28, 133%
Bonnie Brook, 38, 78, 105%
Caulfield East 22, 37, 68%
Keilor Lodge, 13, 19, 46%
Mambourin, 26, 36, 38%
Docklands, 472, 612, 30%
Fraser Rise 167, 201, 20%
East Warburton, 21, 25, 19%
Yarrambat, 18, 21, 17%
Launching Place, 38, 44, 16%
Belgrave South 38, 13, -66%
Ferny Creek, 42, 18, -57%
Portsea, 75, 33, -56%
Somers, 69, 32, -54%
Eumemmerring, 82, 39, -52%
Wandin North, 62, 30, -52%
Research, 58, 29, -50%
Ardeer, 83, 42, -49%
Knoxfield, 192, 99, -48%
Cremorne, 112, 58, -48%
BIGGEST INCREASE AND DECREASE IN SALES, REGIONAL VICTORIA
12 months to 30/11/2021, 12 months to 30/11/2022, % change in sales volumes
INCREASE
Teesdale, 15, 26, 73%
Mitchell Park, 10, 17, 70%
Allansford, 15, 24, 60%
Irymple, 51, 78, 53%
Jamieson, 14, 20, 43%
Stanhope, 14, 19, 36%
Inverleigh, 12, 16, 33%
Chiltern, 25, 33, 32%
Linton, 11, 14, 27%
Halls Gap, 10, 12, 20%
DECREASE
Corinell, 66, 21, -68%
Sunset Strip, 27, 10, -63%
Dalyston, 46, 18, -61%
Wurruk, 25, 10, -60%
Kalimna, 50, 20, -60%
Golden Beach, 37, 15, -59%
Connewarre, 32, 13, -59%
Paradise Beach, 32, 13-, 59%
Casterton, 59, 24, -59%
Killara, 53,22, -58%
MOST SALES, MELBOURNE, HOUSES
Suburb, Number_Sold_12_months, Median_Sale_Price_12_months
Point Cook, 1268, $760,000
Pakenham, 1143, $650,000
Tarneit, 1124, $645,000
Craigieburn, 1123 $650,500
Werribee, 856, $615,800
Berwick, 791, $900,000
Sunbury, 666, $680,000
Truganina, 655, $657,000
Clyde North, 583, $740,000
Hoppers Crossing, 569, $628,888
MOST SALES, MELBOURNE, UNITS
Melbourne, 1425, $530,000
Southbank, 825, $600,000
South Yarra, 645, $605,000
Docklands, 617, $623,000
St Kilda, 604, $522,000
Reservoir, 449, $620,000
Hawthorn, 394, $590,000
Richmond, 382, $621,125
Dandenong, 379, $400,000
Noble Park, 340, $550,000
MOST SALES, REGIONAL VICTORIA, HOUSES
Mildura, 674, $420,000
Shepparton, 577, $420,000
Traralgon, 540, $475,000
Warrnambool, 528, $600,000
Warragul, 445, $670,000
Wodonga, 368, $520,000
Wangaratta, 350, $517,000
Horsham, 321, $365,000
Morwell, 318, $326,000
Highton, 305, $950,000
MOST SALES, REGIONAL VICTORIA, UNITS
Mildura, 141, $295,000
Shepparton, 118, $350,000
Belmont, 108, $558,500
Warrnambool, 105, $430,000
Traralgon, 93, $310,000
Wodonga, 77, $335,000
Highton, 76, $563,500
Geelong, 72, $657,500
Sale, 63, $300,000
Cowes, 62, $637,000
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