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Code S RO16 Preview – Cure, Bunny, NightMare, Stats

Republished By Plato
Republished By Plato

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RO16 Group B Preview: Cure, Bunny, NightMare, Stats

Start time: Thursday, Oct 12 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Mizenhauer

Code S Season 3 got off to a shocking start with Maru getting eliminated in the RO16. The seven-time champion’s exit has thrown the championship picture into utter chaos, and the remaining Code S players will surely be relishing this unexpected opportunity. If we had to pick a new championship favorite from the remaining players, it might be the top Terran in Group B…

Even the most devoted Cure fan would have to admit they’re a bit surprised at the comeback their favorite player has made (not even you, DieuCure). After a lengthy slump that made his singular Code S championship in 2021 seem like a mere flash in the pan, Cure has climbed his way back toward the top of the mountain with runner-up finishes in Code S Season 1 of 2023, Gamers8, and Masters’ Coliseum. I imagine most fans presently rate him as the #4 ranked player in the world at worst, and with none of Serral, Maru, or Reynor in this tournament, he might be the odds on favorite to win the Code S championship.

Aligulac.com gives Cure an 80%+ chance of beating both Stats and NightMare, and he’s also a mild favorite against Bunny with a 60%+ chance of winning. Unless one of the Protosses has perfected a +1 air armor Mothership all-in with the new patch, we can almost take Cure’s advancement for granted. The almost is doing a lot of work here, as after the stunning result from Group A, everything abruptly feels much less certain. Of course, we’ll have plenty of criticism to levy against Cure and his shaky performances under pressure should he reach the final four, but it should be smooth sailing for him until then.

Chaos-aligned GSL fans will be looking for Bunny to stumble and spice this group up. On paper, Bunny is a pretty safe pick to advance alongside Cure. However, it’s undeniable that Bunny has fallen off since his fantastic late-2022 run, where he peaked with a runner-up finish at DreamHack: Atlanta. In the past 10 months, he’s been eliminated unceremoniously early in most of the major events he’s competed (including devastating qualifier elimination in Gamers8), with a single top four finish in Code S season being his only notable result. In fact, the last time Bunny won a BO5+ in a Liquipedia premier-tier occurred way back in December of 2022, when he beat DRG in the quarterfinals of the GSL Super Tournament 2 (he was swept 3-0 by Dark in the next round).

Like Cure, Bunny isn’t someone to worry about at this stage of the tournament. Even if he isn’t at his best, a kind group draw makes him a strong favorite to advance in second place. But, as another year of GSL comes to a close, one has to wonder if he can ever make his own Cure-esque comeback and recapture the scintillating form he displayed in late 2022.

The way the match order and preview order worked out, it really makes NightMare and Stats seem like afterthoughts. Unfortunately, it’s partially deserved given their current positions in the hierarchy of StarCraft II. Despite being the biggest next-generation success story we have in Korean StarCraft II, NightMare seems to have stalled as a round-of-16 level player in Code S with a 2-8 career record in the tournament. Even when herO gifted him one of the worst throws in recent memory last season, NightMare couldn’t complete the comeback and snatch a RO8 berth.

With two strong Terrans in this group, it would take a completely unexpected exploitation of the new patch and map pool for NightMare to advance. Despite all the doom and gloom, it’s still worth celebrating NightMare’s fifth ever Season of Code S. For someone who was only briefly a trainee in the KeSPA machine, it’s an achievement in and of itself to succeed amidst a field of such seasoned veterans. He’s playing with house money, and anything he achieves beyond the RO16 is just icing on the cake.

As for Stats, it’s both perfectly understandable and immensely saddening to dismiss him as RO16 fodder. It’s the same story with all the greats who come back from military service—we know the readjustment to pro-level play is hard, but we can’t help but get impatient when we think of how good they were at their peaks (it doesn’t help the others that outliers like ByuN and herO recovered insanely fast). Patience has often been the key in Stats’ matches—perhaps the same will apply to his post-military career.

Right now, Stats is the ‘standout’ player on what appears to be a very casual Kwangdong Freecs squad (who are 0-2 in the World Team League so far). Alongside soO, he was the only player on the team of military returnees and semi-retirees to earn a Code S spot this season, which he did by eliminating the venerable Ryung in the qualifiers.

Stats might actually get a match win this season, with a (probable) loser’s match against NightMare looking quite winnable. Not only is PvP perceived as a coin-flip, but Aligulac.com also calls this as being a near 50/50 showdown (NightMare recently beat Stats 2-1 in the WTL match between Matcherino and the Freecs). Like NightMare, just getting to Code S should be considered a success for this season. However, it’s more realistic for Stats that this could be a building block for future success—whether it’s in the StarCraft II scene or elsewhere.

Predictions

The contraction of Code S to sixteen players produced some surprisingly competitive groups earlier this year, but this group follows the ‘two-favorites two-underdogs’ formula. Cure and Bunny have been better than their groupmates over the past two years, year, last six months—whatever time frame you want to pick—and it would be a shock to see either of them get eliminated.

Cure > Stats
Bunny > NightMare
Cure > Bunny
NightMare > Stats
Bunny > NightMare

Cure and Bunny to advance.

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