When I first started out, owning more expensive moments from players like Lebron James felt like an achievement to aspire towards, and eventually I was able to buy his signature “starter kit” of a /7500 dunk and /15000 three. A week later, which can feel like an eternity in Top Shot time, and amidst a gradually depreciating value, I decided to sell both. Why? Because the honest truth is that I never really liked Lebron that much.
Seeing those moments in my account every day brought me no joy. They may have been “responsible” or “safe” investment choices if I were more disciplined and could stomach holding those two moments for another month or two, but I am weak, just like Lebron’s argument as the greatest player of all time.
Learn the basics
Top Shot is simple enough; you can buy moments from different players and they get added to your personal collection. But the intricacies of each moment, why they have value, and which you should target depends on some defining principles. Right now, moments fall into two core categories, loosely defined by the NBA season they were released during; “Series One” and “Series Two.” From there, you’ll find different flavors of moments, ranging from scarcity (common, rare and legendary) to mint count (how many of each moment exist), which can range from /49 to /35000. A legendary moment with a /49 mint count is naturally way more valuable and expensive than a common moment with /35000 available. Then again, there are still less than one million people using Top Shot, and exponentially more global fans of the NBA, so one day, even a moment with 35,000 available may feel rare in context.
Finally, there are unique characteristics that a moment can possess, like a player’s first moment (their debut on the platform), their rookie season or debut, and a specific, limited-run collection they can be a part of; All Stars, Rising Stars, First Round, Cool Cats, Metallic Gold, Holo, Deck the Hoops, and Cosmic, to name a few.
If you are a Luka Doncic fan, you can typically find his most affordable moment (Common /35000) between $21 — $29, but his most exclusive and coveted moment is nearly $100,000.
I highly recommend reading Top Shot’s “Getting Started” guides and general blog posts just to familiarize yourself with some of the more nuanced elements of what’s available and how it all works. My personal favorite source of education and news outside of Top Shot is the team from The First Mint, who have a great newsletter, podcast, and Twitter feed.
When it comes to pack drops, which are the most cost-conscious way of growing your collection, Twitter can often be the fastest way to find out when one is happening. A Top Shot OG, Jack Settleman, has a pack drop texting service that is especially helpful if you aren’t a big Twitter user. Text the word “PACKS” to 443–383–4140 and you’ll get added to the list.
For any major pack drop, Top Shot always gives 24 hour notice via email, but occasional “stress tests” can happen with less than an hour of advanced notice.
Be cautious of challenges
Every month, the Top Shot team rolls out a few different challenges, which give each user a unique, limited edition moment as a reward for meeting specific criteria.
It’s a compelling proposition — collect 5 or 10 moments and get one really cool and exclusive one for free, but often times, the juice is not worth the squeeze. Here’s why:
When a challenge is announced, the demand for the respective moments involved often inflate in value upwards of 250% from their standard price. Upon the conclusion of the challenge, the prices plummet back down to earth, and the reward is rarely valuable enough to make up for the investment required to complete the challenge.
Buying the reward from the marketplace is almost always less expensive than the total cost of completing the challenge. If you are focused on “making money” from Top Shot, or at the very least, investing responsibly, challenges are not something I would advise. In my experience completing two of them, they are responsible for the biggest losses I’ve incurred and largest dent in my “account value.”
Timing is everything
There are three core drivers of price in Top Shot: overall market trends (bull markets and bear markets exist here, like in any other market), player news and events (retirement, trades, or outstanding performances), and scarcity (overall availability of the moment). The most relevant and predictable of these three drivers is around scarcity, which is something I have personally fallen “victim” to and have seen others continue to chase.
Whenever a new moment is released, there is the possibility you can “pull it” in a pack drop or purchase it from the marketplace. Top Shot will rarely release 100% of the inventory around a moment in one pack drop. New moments are exciting and it’s easy to want to add them to your collection, especially if they are a player you love. But it’s essential to be patient in these instances and use research tools like Evaluate Market (examples pictured below) so you put yourself in a position to buy at the optimal time.
When Immanuel Quickley’s first moment came out, only a few hundred of the total 4,000 to ever exist were released. Demand exceeded supply, which led to prices upwards of $1,000 to buy it. Today, with 2,720/4,000 released (still only 68%), the price is around $250. Nothing has fundamentally changed about it other than the fact that more are available.
A similar pattern can be found with Malik Monk, who recently had his first moment debut released. Within 36 hours, the price rose from $25 to over $200, and then quickly fell back down below $50. In the most recent pack drop, another wave of Malik Monk’s inventory was released, and now the moment can be purchased for around $15.
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Source: https://topshotblog.medium.com/nba-top-shot-welcome-to-the-future-of-collecting-heres-what-you-should-know-313db0c70506?source=rss——-8—————–cryptocurrency