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Chelsea EPL Title Odds Shorten After Caicedo, Lavia Deals

Republished By Plato
Republished By Plato

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Climbing the ranks

The Todd Boehly revolution at Chelsea is still full-steam ahead after this past week’s £174m ($221.6m) spending spree, the result of which has shortened the Blues’ odds to win the English Premier League (EPL) title.

the club is practically unrecognizable from what it was even 15 months ago

Boehly and Clearlake Capital have now invested £852.2m ($1.085bn) on player transfers alone in just one year (and three transfer windows). Only three players remain from their starting XI that won the Champions League Final in 2021, and the club is practically unrecognizable from what it was even 15 months ago.

Any team that spends such an exorbitant amount of money will be put to the sword if it does not achieve success sooner than later. But just how much have the new arrivals impacted Chelsea’s title odds, and what are the chances they mount a true challenge? Let’s take a look.

Chelsea EPL odds grow

Chelsea splashed the cash this week on two young, talented midfielders, Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia. 

Caicedo impressed mightily as a central cog in Brighton’s club-record sixth-place finish last season. He and Chelsea had been in discussions for months, but could not agree to anything until Liverpool sprung a surprise £111m ($141.4m) bid, which forced the Blues to act swiftly. The resultant price tag set a British record for the largest transfer payment, outdoing the £107m ($136.3m) the Blues spent on World Cup winner Enzo Fernandez in January.

The Lavia deal was completed a few days later and came as much more of a surprise. Many believed that Chelsea would target other areas of their squad, such as striker or goalkeeper, once they landed Caicedo, but they went in for the 19-year-old Belgian who had also been linked to Liverpool. Chelsea co-Director of Recruitment and Talent Joe Shields was responsible for bringing Lavia to Southampton (his former employer) and engineered the move.

only Thiago Silva and vice-captain Ben Chilwell will have arrived at the club prior to the Boehly takeover

Should the Blues line up with Caicedo and Lavia in the midfield and their overall strongest squad in support (minus captain Reece James, who was injured in training this week), only Thiago Silva and vice-captain Ben Chilwell will have arrived at the club prior to the Boehly takeover. Silva could also be sacrificed for Axel Disasi, who arrived from Monaco last week and scored his debut against Liverpool.

Although the average age of the squad is incredibly low for such a high-profile club, Mauricio Pochettino is now under tremendous pressure to develop the players and have them compete for a Champions League spot. If he fails, he could be the fifth manager to get the sack from the ambitious ownership.

Updates at the top

Heading into Matchweek 1, Chelsea was fifth in odds to win the EPL at +1600. Despite drawing 1-1 against Liverpool in the opener and several teams beneath them in odds moving ahead in the table, Chelsea is now up to +1300 to win the EPL, though they are still fifth.

The full list of odds (courtesy of FanDuel sportsbook) is as follows.

  • Man City (-160)
  • Arsenal (+470)
  • Man United (+900)
  • Liverpool (+1000)
  • Chelsea (+1300)
  • Newcastle (+1600)
  • Tottenham (+6500)
  • Brighton (+6500)
  • Aston Villa (+1000)
  • Nottingham Forest (+43000)
  • Crystal Palace (+43000)
  • Fulham (+43000)
  • Bournemouth (+43000)
  • Wolves (+43000)
  • West Ham (+43000)
  • Brentford (+43000)
  • Burnley (+43000)
  • Sheffield United (+43000)
  • Luton (+43000)
  • Everton (+43000)

Most of the clubs near the top of the board not named Chelsea have not shifted much in odds since before the league kicked off last weekend. Man City went from -140 to -160, Arsenal moved from +500 to +470, Man United stood pat, and Newcastle shortened from +1800 to +1600.

Liverpool, however, was an exception. The Reds fell from +650 at the start of August to +1000 due to missing out on their top midfield targets. They signed 30-year-old Wataru Endo from VfB Stuttgart for about £16.3m ($20.7m), though that was clearly an emergency backup to Caicedo and Lavia.

Chelsea has the chance to validate its updated EPL title odds when it takes on West Ham at London Stadium Sunday. Caicedo and Lavia have both been registered and will be available for selection.

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