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Bitcoin Bull Run More Than Hype This Time – Don’t Be Surprised By US$20,000 Price By Years End

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Bitcoin to $20,000 in 2019? Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, surged in value to hit US$13,000 in late June.

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, surged in value to hit US$13,000 in late June.

  • Stronger fundamentals, growing institutional interest and mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies bode well for the prospects of bitcoin
  • The asset can also work as a hedge against macroeconomic risks

Table of Contents

Bitcoin Gearing Up For Bull Run?

At the time of writing, bitcoin is hovering above the US$10,000 mark. The last time we saw bitcoin reach this price was in December 2017, after which, the cryptocurrency went on to reach its all-time high of nearly US$20,000 in a matter of days.

The cryptocurrency market remained bearish for all of 2018, but with the way bitcoin is charging upwards and setting new highs in 2019, it is safe to say that the crypto-winter is behind us already. In the past several years, we have witnessed a cyclical pattern emerging in the cryptocurrency space.

And with each cycle, we reached exponentially greater heights.This time around, analysts have come up with bolder price predictions, ranging from US$21,000 all the way up to US$100,000, all of which begs the question: is the current bull market any different from the last one?

See: Expert Predictions: Price Forecasts of Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, surged in value to hit US$13,000 in late June. Illustration: Reuters

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, surged in value to hit US$13,000 in late June. Illustration: ReutersAt the time of writing, bitcoin has just surpassed the US$13,000 mark. The last time we saw bitcoin reach this price was in December 2017, after which, the cryptocurrency went on to reach its all-time high of nearly US$20,000 in a matter of days.

2018: Year of the Bears

The cryptocurrency market remained bearish for all of 2018, but with the way bitcoin is charging upwards and setting new highs in 2019, it is safe to say that the crypto-winter is behind us already. In the past several years, we have witnessed a cyclical pattern emerging in the cryptocurrency space. And with each cycle, we reached exponentially greater heights.This time around, analysts have come up with bolder price predictions, ranging from US$21,000 all the way up to US$100,000, all of which begs the question: is the current bull market any different from the last one?

inRead invented by TeadsDuring the peak of the 2017 cryptocurrency bull run, several sceptics compared it to the Tulip mania of the 17th century, with most convinced that bitcoin was a bubble. However, since 2017, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have come a long way in terms of maturity. Bitcoin fundamentals are stronger than ever, institutional interest is at an all-time high and mainstream adoption is on the rise, strengthening the argument for why the market is not based totally on hype this time.

sceptics compared it to the Tulip mania of the 17th century, with most convinced that bitcoin was a bubble.

sceptics compared it to the Tulip mania of the 17th century, with most convinced that bitcoin was a bubble

Earlier this month, Blockchain.info reported that bitcoin’s hash-rate – the speed at which a bitcoin mining machine operates – reached a historical high of 74,548,543 terahashes per second. In simpler terms, the bitcoin blockchain is more secure than it ever has been and breaching the network would require unimaginable computing power. In addition, the average number of transactions on the blockchain has consistently risen. As reported by localbitcoins.org, the weekly average transaction volume has remained above US$50 million since September 2017.

Daily active bitcoin wallets crossed the 1 million mark in June this year, according to data published by Coin Metrics, providing another indication that more people are now using bitcoin.

Institutional Investment in Bitcoin Gaining Traction

Institutional Investment into Bitcoin Gaining Traction

Institutional Investors are Coming

Institutional involvement in the cryptocurrency space, over the past year, has been incredible. It is easy to argue that the 2017 bull-run was largely fuelled by retail investors. This time around, institutional investment in cryptocurrencies has gained traction.

Will China be forced to develop its own cryptocurrency in response to Libra?

Fidelity is set to launch cryptocurrency trading for institutional investors, seeing huge demand in that niche. Earlier this month, CME Group recorded open interest – the number of active contracts held by investors – in 5,311 contracts, totalling 26,555 bitcoin, significantly higher than the 2017 price peak.

Furthermore, JP Morgan, one of the biggest investment banks in the world, launched its own token, JPM coin, to settle payments between institutional clients. The biggest social network in the world, Facebook, is set to launch its own cryptocurrency, Libra, next year. Regardless of the use cases of these institutional cryptocurrencies, they are a step in the right direction, giving more legitimacy to the industry.

A technician monitors cryptocurrency mining rigs at a Bitfarms facility in Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec, Canada, in July 2018. Photo: Bloomberg

A technician monitors cryptocurrency mining rigs at a Bitfarms facility in Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec, Canada, in July 2018. Photo: Bloomberg

Is Bitcoin Digital Gold?

To most, the thought of bitcoin as a safe haven may sound completely absurd given its volatility. However, a recent study from Grayscale Research analyses the correlation between bitcoin and macroeconomic developments, illustrating the use of bitcoin as a hedge against political unrest and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Even though bitcoin does not really feature in the conventional list of safe havens, more people are relying on the cryptocurrency as a hedge against movements in the “traditional” financial market. Correlation does not necessarily mean causation but the key takeaway here is that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are becoming more popular among investors for diversifying their portfolios.

To stimulate their economies, central banks around the world are turning dovish: cutting interest rates and printing more money. While this has made investors rejoice in the short term, bitcoin holders are confident that in the long term, bitcoin will outperform fiat currencies, the supply of which is growing at a rapid pace.

Read: Why the stock market rally will not last long

The Cryptocurrency Market Has Matured Weathered, with some gray hairs the digital currency is still kicking

The Cryptocurrency Market Has Matured

The cryptocurrency market is definitely more mature than it was during the last bull run and there is more intelligent money in the market than there was the last time. Fear of missing out will still definitely be a huge catalyst in driving up prices but we cannot ignore the other developments that have added legitimacy and increased the ways in which cryptocurrencies could be used, paving the way for mainstream adoption.

How prices will move remains of interest. Past performance is not an indication of future results, but if the observed pattern were to continue, we could be looking a year-end price well above the US$20,000 mark.

Bitcoin Volatility Lowest Levels Since May

  • Bitcoin’s price volatility, as represented by Bollinger bandwidth, has hit the lowest level since May 3, and is closing on a level seen ahead of violent price swings in the past.
  • While technical charts are increasingly favoring a downside move, bitcoin’s non-price metrics continue to call a bullish move, which, so far, has remained elusive.
  • BTC risks falling to $9,855 (Sept. 11 low) in the next couple of days and could extend the decline toward $9,320 (Aug. 29 low).
  • The bearish case would weaken above Sept. 13’s high of $10,458. The outlook, as per the daily chart would turn bullish above $10,956 (Aug. 20 high).

Bitcoin Price Forecast 2019

Bitcoin’s volatility has hit its lowest level in over four months – a price squeeze that may force a significant move either way.

BTC’s bull run stalled at highs above $13,800 on June 26 and prices have created lower highs and higher lows ever since.

Notably, the trading range has narrowed sharply over the last two weeks, with bitcoin consolidating between $9,850 and 10,950, as per Bitstamp data.

As a result, the Bollinger bands – volatility indicators placed 2 standard deviations above and below the price’s 20-day moving average – have narrowed sharply.

More importantly, Bollinger bandwidth, an indicator used to gauge market volatility, has dropped to 0.11 – the lowest reading since May. 3, as seen in the chart below.

Bollinger Bandwidth

The volatility level has dropped steadily from 0.62 to lows near 0.10 in the 2.5-months.

In the past, BTC has witnessed big moves following drops to or below 0.10 (marked by arrows).

For instance, the bandwidth dropped to 0.06 a week before BTC broke into a bull market with a high-volume move to $5,000 on April 2. It also fell to 0.10 on May 2 – a day before BTC jumped above $5,600, marking an upside break of a three-week-long consolidation. And, in the days leading up to last November’s sell-off below $6,000, volatility dropped to 0.05.

If history is a guide, then BTC could soon witness a big move on either side. Technical analysis theory also states than an extended period of low volatility is often followed by a big move.

While the record high hash rate (miner confidence) is calling a bullish move, the technical charts are beginning to favor the bears.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $10,170 on Bitstamp, representing little change on a 24-hour basis.

Daily chart

Bitcoin jumped 2.6 percent on Sept. 12, confirming an upside break of a falling wedge pattern. The bullish breakout, however, failed to draw bids and the cryptocurrency has ended up creating another lower high at $10,458 (Sept. 13 high).

With the failed breakout, the bearish view put forward by Sept. 6’s big red engulfing candle has gained credence.

BTC risks falling back to the Sept. 11 low of $9,855 in the short-term. A violation there would open the doors for $9,320 (Aug. 29 low).

A few observers are calling for a deeper drop to levels below $8,000. That possibility cannot be ruled out as the cryptocurrency is looking heavy on the longer duration charts.

Monthly and weekly charts

The back-to-back inside bar candlestick patterns on the monthly chart (above left) indicate buyer exhaustion following a stellar rally from $4,000 to $13,880.

A bearish “inside bar” reversal would be confirmed if prices close (UTC) below $9,049 – the low of the first inside bar created in July – on Sept. 30.

Further, a negative reading on the weekly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicates scope for a deeper pullback.

The bearish case would weaken if prices rise above $10,956 (Aug. 20 high), invalidating the lower highs setup on the daily chart.

That said, a weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above $12,000 is needed for bull revival, as discussed last month.

Article by

Sagar Chaudhary  

South China Morning Post

&

Omkar Godbole

Coindesk

Source: https://cryptoclarified.com/bitcoin-bull-run-more-than-hype-this-time-dont-be-surprised-by-a-us20000-price-tag-by-year-end/

Blockchain

Meet Blockchain Pioneer Dr. Scott Stornetta

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September 27-28, 2021/ Washington DC. The GBA, along with an assembly of blockchain associations, will present Blockchain & Infrastructure. During the recent Infrastructure legislation debate, one thing became crystal clear: policymakers need to have a solid understanding of blockchain and cryptocurrency if they are going to regulate it. And who better to teach the history of blockchain than Dr. Scott Stornetta? The works of the Doctor and his colleague, cryptographer Stuart Haber, were referenced three times in Satoshi Nakamoto’s 2009 bitcoin whitepaper. One could argue that Stornetta taught Satoshi how to blockchain. Trained as a theoretical physicist, Stornetta has been surmised to be Satoshi himself, which Dr. Stornetta denied from a GBA stage in Japanese, which he speaks. This exceptional man will be one of the instructors at Blockchain & Infrastructure, 9/27-28/2021, conducted live in Washington DC and virtually around the world.

On Tuesday evening, September 28, GBA will host a catered reception at the Whittemore House in Washington DC. During this reception, Working Groups will gather in the various Parlor Rooms for targeted conversations on Healthcare, Voting, Regulations, FinTech, and more. Wander through the splendid mansion, steeped in history, and meet Dr. Scott Stornetta. Mingle with legislators, embassy personnel, and innovators, who are putting this technology into play. The Blockchain & Infrastructure Evening Reception is one Soirée not to miss for anyone who is interested in learning, contributing to, and influencing the trajectory of blockchain and cryptocurrency around the world. All participants may opt into a conference networking app for ongoing connection, communication, and collaboration.

Event details are at www.governmentblockchainfoundation.org

Source:Plato Data Intelligence

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Blockchain

For the love of the loot: Blockchain, the metaverse and gaming’s blind spot

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The speed at which gaming has proliferated is matched only by the pace of new buzzwords inundating the ecosystem. Marketers and decision makers, already suffering from FOMO about opportunities within gaming, have latched onto buzzy trends like the applications of blockchain in gaming and the “metaverse” in an effort to get ahead of the trend rather than constantly play catch-up.

The allure is obvious, as the relationship between the blockchain, metaverse, and gaming makes sense. Gaming has always been on the forefront of digital ownership (one can credit gaming platform Steam for normalizing the concept for games, and arguably other media such as movies), and most agreed upon visions of the metaverse rely upon virtual environments common in games with decentralized digital ownership.

Whatever your opinion of either, I believe they both have an interrelated future in gaming. However, the success or relevance of either of these buzzy topics is dependent upon a crucial step that is being skipped at this point.

Let’s start with the example of blockchain and, more specifically, NFTs. Collecting items of varying rarities and often random distribution form some of the core “loops” in many games (i.e. kill monster, get better weapon, kill tougher monster, get even better weapon, etc.), and collecting “skins” (e.g. different outfits/permutation of game character) is one of the most embraced paradigms of micro-transactions in games.

The way NFTs are currently being discussed in relation to gaming are very much in danger of falling into this very trap: Killing the core gameplay loop via a financial fast track.

Now, NFTs are positioned to be a natural fit with various rare items having permanent, trackable, and open value. Recent releases such as “Loot (for Adventurers)” have introduced a novel approach wherein the NFTs are simply descriptions of fantasy-inspired gear and offered in a way that other creators can use them as tools to build worlds around. It’s not hard to imagine a game built around NFT items, à la Loot.

But that’s been done before… kind of. Developers of games with a “loot loop” like the one described above have long had a problem with “farmers”, who acquire game currencies and items to sell to players for real money, against the terms of service of the game. The solution was to implement in-game “auction houses” where players could instead use real money to purchase items from one another.

Unfortunately, this had an unwanted side-effect. As noted by renowned game psychologist Jamie Madigan, our brains are evolved to pay special attention to rewards that are both unexpected and beneficial. When much of the joy in some games comes from an unexpected or randomized reward, being able to easily acquire a known reward with real money robbed the game of what made it fun.

The way NFTs are currently being discussed in relation to gaming are very much in danger of falling into this very trap: Killing the core gameplay loop via a financial fast track. The most extreme examples of this phenomena commit the biggest cardinal sin in gaming — a game that is “pay to win,” where a player with a big bankroll can acquire a material advantage in a competitive game.

Blockchain games such as Axie Infinity have rapidly increased enthusiasm around the concept of “play to earn,” where players can potentially earn money by selling tokenized resources or characters earned within a blockchain game environment. If this sounds like a scenario that can come dangerously close to “pay to win,” that’s because it is.

What is less clear is whether it matters in this context. Does anyone care enough about the core game itself rather than the potential market value of NFTs or earning potential through playing? More fundamentally, if real-world earnings are the point, is it truly a game or just a gamified micro-economy, where “farming” as described above is not an illicit activity, but rather the core game mechanic?

The technology culture around blockchain has elevated solving for very hard problems that very few people care about. The solution (like many problems in tech) involves reevaluation from a more humanist approach. In the case of gaming, there are some fundamental gameplay and game psychology issues to be tackled before these technologies can gain mainstream traction.

We can turn to the metaverse for a related example. Even if you aren’t particularly interested in gaming, you’ve almost certainly heard of the concept after Mark Zuckerberg staked the future of Facebook upon it. For all the excitement, the fundamental issue is that it simply doesn’t exist, and the closest analogs are massive digital game spaces (such as Fortnite) or sandboxes (such as Roblox). Yet, many brands and marketers who haven’t really done the work to understand gaming are trying to fast-track to an opportunity that isn’t likely to materialize for a long time.

Gaming can be seen as the training wheels for the metaverse — the ways we communicate within, navigate, and think about virtual spaces are all based upon mechanics and systems with foundations in gaming. I’d go so far as to predict the first adopters of any “metaverse” will indeed be gamers who have honed these skills and find themselves comfortable within virtual environments.

By now, you might be seeing a pattern: We’re far more interested in the “future” applications of gaming without having much of a perspective on the “now” of gaming. Game scholarship has proliferated since the early aughts due to a recognition of how games were influencing thought in fields ranging from sociology to medicine, and yet the business world hasn’t paid it much attention until recently.

The result is that marketers and decision makers are doing what they do best (chasing the next big thing) without the usual history of why said thing should be big, or what to do with it when they get there. The growth of gaming has yielded an immense opportunity, but the sophistication of the conversations around these possibilities remains stunted, due in part to our misdirected attention.

There is no “pay to win” fast track out of this blind spot. We have to put in the work to win.

PlatoAi. Web3 Reimagined. Data Intelligence Amplified.
Click here to access.

Source: https://techcrunch.com/2021/09/16/for-the-love-of-the-loot-blockchain-the-metaverse-and-gamings-blind-spot/

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Crypto’s networked collaboration will drive Web 3.0

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Web 1.0 was the static web, and Web 2.0 is the social web, but Web 3.0 will be the decentralized web. It will move us from a world in which communities contribute but don’t own or profit, to one where they can through collaboration.

By breaking away from traditional business models centered around benefiting large corporations, Web3 brings the possibility of community-centered economies of scale. This collaborative spirit and its associated incentive mechanisms are attracting some of the most talented and ambitious developers today, unlocking projects that were previously not possible.

Web3 might not be the final answer, but it’s the current iteration, and innovation isn’t always obvious in the beginning.

Web3, as Ki Chong Tran once said, is “The next major iteration of the internet, which promises to wrest control from the centralized corporations that today dominate the web.” Web3-enabled collaboration is made possible by decentralized networks that no single entity controls.

In closed-source business models, users trust a business to manage funds and execute services. With open source projects, users trust the technology to perform these tasks. In Web2, the bigger network wins. In Web3, whoever builds the biggest network together wins.

In a decentralized world, not only is participation open to all, the incentive structure is designed so that the greater the number of participants, the more everybody succeeds.

Learning from Linux

Linux, which is behind a majority of Web2’s websites, changed the paradigm for how the internet was developed and provides a clear example of how collaborative processes can drive the future of technology. Linux wasn’t developed by an incumbent tech giant, but by a group of volunteer programmers who used networked collaboration, which is when people freely share information without central control.

In “The Cathedral & The Bazaar,” author Eric S. Raymond shares his observations of the Linux kernel development process and his experiences managing open source projects. Raymond depicts a time when the popular mindset was to develop complex operating systems carefully coordinated by a small, exclusionary group of people — “cathedrals,” which are corporations and financial institutions.

Linux evolved in a completely different way. Raymond explains, “Quality was maintained not by rigid standards or autocracy, but by the naively simple strategy of releasing every week and getting feedback from hundreds of users within days, creating a sort of Darwinian selection on the mutations introduced by developers. To the amazement of almost everyone, this worked quite well.” This Linux development model, or “bazaar” model as Raymond puts it, assumes that “bugs are generally shallow phenomena” when exposed to an army of hackers without significant coordination.

PlatoAi. Web3 Reimagined. Data Intelligence Amplified.
Click here to access.

Source: https://techcrunch.com/2021/09/16/cryptos-networked-collaboration-will-drive-web-3-0/

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Blockchain

Crypto’s networked collaboration will drive Web 3.0

Published

on

Web 1.0 was the static web, and Web 2.0 is the social web, but Web 3.0 will be the decentralized web. It will move us from a world in which communities contribute but don’t own or profit, to one where they can through collaboration.

By breaking away from traditional business models centered around benefiting large corporations, Web3 brings the possibility of community-centered economies of scale. This collaborative spirit and its associated incentive mechanisms are attracting some of the most talented and ambitious developers today, unlocking projects that were previously not possible.

Web3 might not be the final answer, but it’s the current iteration, and innovation isn’t always obvious in the beginning.

Web3, as Ki Chong Tran once said, is “The next major iteration of the internet, which promises to wrest control from the centralized corporations that today dominate the web.” Web3-enabled collaboration is made possible by decentralized networks that no single entity controls.

In closed-source business models, users trust a business to manage funds and execute services. With open source projects, users trust the technology to perform these tasks. In Web2, the bigger network wins. In Web3, whoever builds the biggest network together wins.

In a decentralized world, not only is participation open to all, the incentive structure is designed so that the greater the number of participants, the more everybody succeeds.

Learning from Linux

Linux, which is behind a majority of Web2’s websites, changed the paradigm for how the internet was developed and provides a clear example of how collaborative processes can drive the future of technology. Linux wasn’t developed by an incumbent tech giant, but by a group of volunteer programmers who used networked collaboration, which is when people freely share information without central control.

In “The Cathedral & The Bazaar,” author Eric S. Raymond shares his observations of the Linux kernel development process and his experiences managing open source projects. Raymond depicts a time when the popular mindset was to develop complex operating systems carefully coordinated by a small, exclusionary group of people — “cathedrals,” which are corporations and financial institutions.

Linux evolved in a completely different way. Raymond explains, “Quality was maintained not by rigid standards or autocracy, but by the naively simple strategy of releasing every week and getting feedback from hundreds of users within days, creating a sort of Darwinian selection on the mutations introduced by developers. To the amazement of almost everyone, this worked quite well.” This Linux development model, or “bazaar” model as Raymond puts it, assumes that “bugs are generally shallow phenomena” when exposed to an army of hackers without significant coordination.

PlatoAi. Web3 Reimagined. Data Intelligence Amplified.
Click here to access.

Source: https://techcrunch.com/2021/09/16/cryptos-networked-collaboration-will-drive-web-3-0/

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