Equity markets are treading water in the middle of the week as investors weigh up what is next for the Fed following the surprise decline in JOLTS job openings, how much further the RBNZ will go in light of today’s decision and what the OPEC+ cut means for oil prices and inflation.

There’s been a lot to take on board over the last few days and it’s been a real mix of good and bad news. The JOLTS data yesterday could be the first signs of weakness in the US labour market and that is huge. Without it, the Fed will find it very hard to make the argument that it is pausing the tightening cycle. Now it needs to be backed up and the jobs report on Friday could start that process.

RBNZ not done with tightening despite huge rate hikes over the last year

The RBNZ is clearly not of the view that it is close to being able to pause its tightening cycle, despite having raised rates extremely aggressively over the last year or so. The central bank surprised markets by raising the OCR by 50 basis points and there’s likely to be more to come. As we’re seeing elsewhere, New Zealand has its own issues with inflation, most notably an extremely tight labour market. There may be some economic pain ahead as the central bank tries to get to grips with that.

What will be the next bullish catalyst for bitcoin?

We’re continuing to see choppy trade in bitcoin but importantly, pullbacks have been small and brief which may reassure the crypto crowd that there’s more to come. It’s just hard to know at this point whether the rebound is sustainable, what the next bullish catalyst will be, or even how it will respond to Friday’s jobs report if it is at the weaker end of the spectrum. Whatever happens, it promises to be a fascinating one to follow.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

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Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.

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• Source: https://www.marketpulse.com/news-events/central-banks/us-jobs-report-eyed-as-weaker-jolts-data-signal-slack-appearing-in-labour-market/cerlam