USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting with a shift in the statement that indicated the
  end of the tightening cycle.
• The latest US CPI
  slightly beat expectations but analysts expect the Core PCE to print at 0.2%
  M/M again following the CPI data.
• The labour market continues to soften but remains
  resilient with US Jobless Claims beating
  expectations week after week.
• The latest ISM Manufacturing
  PMI
  beat expectations, while the ISM Services PMI missed
  by a big margin.
• The US Retail Sales beat
  expectations across the board.
• The University of
  Michigan Consumer Sentiment report jumped to the highest
  levels since 2021.
• The Fed members recently have been pushing
  back on the aggressive rate cuts expectations.
• The market’s expectations for the first rate cut
  were pushed back to May following strong economic data.

NZD

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
  unchanged at the
  last meeting stating that demand growth continues to ease and it’s expected to
  decline further with monetary conditions remaining restrictive.
• The New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations
  supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.
• The latest labour market report showed a notable increase in
  the unemployment rate and a slowdown in wage growth which is something that will
  keep the RBNZ on the sidelines.
• The Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction with
  the Services PMI following suit.
• The market expects the RBNZ to start
  cutting rates in Q2.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD eventually
fell all the way down to the key support zone
around the 0.6050 level. This is where the buyers stepped in with a
defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the 0.64
resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.59 handle. Alternatively, the
sellers will have a better risk to reward setup at the downward trendline where
they will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the sellers
will have two different options where to short from:

• The first is around the 0.6135 level where they
  have also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
  for confluence.
• The second is around the 0.62 handle where they
  will find the confluence of the previous swing low, the 61.8% Fibonacci
  retracement level, the trendline and the daily 21 moving average.

The buyers, on the other hand, will look to
increase their bullish bets at every breakout with the 0.64 resistance as the
ultimate target.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action and we can also notice that the pair has been
diverging with the MACD trading into the key support. This is generally a sign
of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case,
the target for the pullback is right around the high of the consolidation at
the 0.6135 level which is also where the sellers will have their first short
opportunity.

Upcoming Events

Today the main event will be the US PMIs as the
market will want to see how business activity has fared in January after some
worrying data from regional surveys. Tomorrow, we have the Advance US Q4 GDP
and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday we conclude the
week with the US PCE report.

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• Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-technical-analysis-20240124/