- The coronavirus has already peaked in many US states, especially in places that were hit relatively early, like New York, New Jersey, and Louisiana
- The outbreak is still building in other states, meaning they haven’t seen the worst of the pandemic, according to researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
- Outbreaks in North Dakota and South Dakota are projected to peak the latest, on May 15 and 16 respectively.
- This article was updated on April 23, with the latest numbers from the IHME.
- Read live updates about the coronavirus here.
Some states are already past the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic, while others are waiting for a surge in the coming weeks, according to projections from researchers.
Depending on which model you’re looking at, the US’s coronavirus peak could have already passed or may be coming in the near future. This date can also change depending on if you’re measuring when hospitals are expected to be the most overwhelmed or when deaths will peak.
Models also account for things like how well people adhere to social-distancing guidelines and stay-at-home orders, which create wide ranges in timing.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), for example, assumes high levels of social distancing in its model and says that the country’s peak happened on April 15. Penn Medicine’s CHIME Model, on the other hand, which incorporates lower compliance, predicts the apex for admitted COVID-19 patients, accounting for new arrivals and discharges, come in mid to late July.
Read more: American hospitals have lost 27 medical workers to the coronavirus. Here are some of their stories.
But there are several peaks that are set to happen in the US, and they vary from state to state.
Places like Washington, New York, and New Jersey — which have been hit hard by the coronavirus — already experienced their peaks, according to IHME. States that haven’t seen as many cases yet, like North and South Dakota, may see surges happen as late as mid-May, more than a month later than the earliest spots hit.
The risk of a ‘2nd wave’ of COVID-19 in the US
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said in early April that coastal cities like New York were likely to experience their peaks earlier than the rest of the country, about mid-April, and that other parts of the US would likely peak in the weeks following.
A big risk that could follow these different sets of peaks, the organization said in a report, is “a second wave of infections emanating from the central region of the country after the coasts have peaked in mid-April.”
In other words, coastal cities may experience another wave of coronavirus infections after their first one. The IHME model looks at the initial outbreak only.
Most states have hit their peaks already, between April 2 and 23
The states that have already experienced their peaks, either in terms of the highest number of deaths in a day or the day that hospital resources are stretched the most, include Michigan, Washington, and Louisiana, which have seen relatively high numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases early on within their borders.
States like Tennessee and Washington were some of the first to see their hospital resources stretched amid the coronavirus pandemic, while Florida and Alaska were some of the earliest states to experience their peaks for coronavirus-related deaths, on April 2 and April 4, respectively, according to updated data from IHME as of April 23.
Five states are hitting their peaks for hospital resources this week and close to a dozen will see their peak deaths
A handful of states will see their hospital resources stretched the thinnest this week.
Of these five states, two — Arkansas and Utah — haven’t fully implemented stay-at-home orders (Utah’s governor Gary Herbert has not implemented a statewide shelter-in-place order, but some counties have issued them on their own accord).
These five states are also expected to see their day with the high numbers of coronavirus-related deaths this week, along with six other states around the US. In Minnesota, for example, which saw its hospital resources stretched thinnest already last week, the state is expected to see an estimated 12 deaths on April 24.
A handful of states are expected to hit their peaks after May 2
Five states are expected to see their peaks — both in hospital resource use as well as deaths — after May 2. Of these bunch, two states — Wyoming and Iowa — will see their peak daily deaths on May 5.
The remaining three states, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota, are expected to lag far behind some other places in the country, seeing their peaks for daily deaths in mid-May, more than a month later than places like Louisiana and Tennessee, which saw their peaks on April 14.
