In addition, we also have a few very interesting maps in this season’s map pool, including the infamous Plasma, which reminds us that ASL is not just here to show players grinding games to show off mechanics, it’s a display of a far wider array of skills. With any luck, we’ll see some heartbreaking upsets or maybe even a surprise championship run, but whatever the case, it’s bound to be entertaining!
Another ASL and another Group A start for Bisu, what are the odds? Well the only odds that matter are that he’s 100% making it out of this group in first place. The Terrans Leta and JyJ are unlikely to pose a threat to him, which leaves us with one of his greatest foes, the slayer of all of Bisu’s fans, Shine himself. Although everything points to him taking a game off Bisu or even meeting him in the group as unlikely…but still, destiny arrives all the same.
So glad I got to reuse this, would be funny if I got to reuse this again
Ringing BloomBisu has great stats on Ringing Bloom, with an overall winrate at about 66%, and most of his losses in TvP come from Light, who is no slouch in the matchup (so weird to say this). It’s not surprising that Bisu is doing well on this map because it has been very good to Protoss in both non mirror matches on the whole.
Leta’s chances are very slim here. His TvP isn’t anything to write home about, and on this map, it’s a 1-10 record so far, Bisu may be winding down as a competitor but unless Leta is getting serious as one. There is nothing more Leta can do than mentally prepare for his next opponent in the losers match
Neither player here has a particularly good record on this map. It favors Terran, so that’s a point to JyJ. Shine has a better win/loss record on the map than JyJ, but JyJ’s wins were against better opponents (ZerO and Soulkey) compared to Shine’s wins mostly against Sharp. I’d still give the edge to Shine for experience and probably pulling something off from his bag of builds.
Zergs love playing on Eclipse. It’s definitely their map for the season. Neither Shine nor Bisu have played much on the map publicly, but from what we’ve seen, Bisu as usual does really well against Zerg on the map, and Shine conversely has been doing a whole lot worse. You can never tell what’s going to happen between these two, but honestly it looks very unlikely that Shine could pull off a victory.
Either Bisu ends the game by constantly harassing and denying Shine from mining his third or Shine wins with a 3 Hatch Hydra to prove to us that nothing ever really changes.
JyJ is the better player right now among the two, so I don’t see much hope in Leta in this TvT. JyJ should be able to go to the final game without much issue.
For JyJ, this is a much better map than their earlier match for him. It’s one that he’s played and won more on, and based on his sponbbang results, he looked like he was well prepared for the eventuality of playing on this map. Shine hasn’t been doing particularly well on Polypoid too.
JyJ should be able to dispatch Shine and secure the second Spot in the Ro16 alongside Bisu.
Theres a lot to be excited for in this group, Snow coming off his ASTL MVP run, ACS Winner Yoon, sSak’s first season since ASL3, and Soulkey hopefully having made his great escape from Stork.
Snow’s PvZ has been pretty good on Ringing Bloom, rocking a 60% winrate and even having wins against Yoon on it. While I would like to see a good game from Yoon, Snow should make quick work of the ACS winner.
For as great of a run as Snow had in the ASTL, Soulkey had the exact opposite experience. On paper Soulkey is great with his overall winrate of 60% with wins against Light and Flash, but there seems to be a huge mental block when it comes to his offline performance. sSak makes his ASL return after his military service. While not as active as before and still a bit rusty, he’s a very capable Terran and can deal with other players at an ASL level.
Soulkey has wins on this map and sSak doesn’t really. If sSak does take this, I’d be seriously worried about Soulkey as a competitor.
This is the match of the day, at least the one that most people would want to see in this group, and Eclipse is a good map for it. The map is Zerg favored with an overall winrate of 55% in favor of Zerg in ZvP, and on the player level Snow is at a 60% win rate compared to Soulkey’s 50%. Snow also has two wins on the map against Soulkey too, so he is definitely still the favorite going into this match.
Eclipse is a pretty high gas map for a two player map. Every expansion has a gas geyser, so there is a lot of potential for some great late game armies in this match. Both players are solid macro players, and I do believe it could come to it.
Snow should win, but expect a solid match.
Eclipse so far has been a Terran favored map in the matchup, but sSak’s TvZ has not been up to the mark compared to his mirror or TvP. If Yoon has something prepared, he can totally catch sSak off guard, but I’m a bit skeptical on how Yoon will perform at this level of pressure. I’m going to put experience over skill for this match and say sSak should still win.
Same story as their opening game. Soulkey has really good ZvT, and sSak’s weakest matchup is TvZ. If sSak couldn’t pull off the win on Ringing Bloom, he wouldn’t be able to pull it off on familiar territory like Polypoid.
Source: https://tl.net/forum/brood-war/562893-asl10-ro24-preview-pt-1-welcome-to-the-jungle
