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Tesla Stock Forecast: Goldman calls TSLA a top short among hedge funds

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  • Goldman Sachs noted on Wednesday that Tesla is a favorite short among hedge funds.
  • Likewise, mutual funds as a class hold TSLA as an underweight position.
  • At the end of October, nearly $17 billion worth of short interest was seen in TSLA.
  • TSLA stock has been in a downtrend on the daily chart since mid-July.

Tesla (TSLA) stock has been edging higher on Wednesday, outperforming the NASDAQ Composite for the most part, but institutional bearishness parallels the lackluster performance over the past four months and CEO Elon Musk’s recent ho-hum Cybertruck event.

Goldman Sachs released a report on Wednesday concerning research about which stocks are witnessing agreement between mutual funds and hedge funds. Unfortunately for TSLA stock investors, both types of institutions on average are bearish on the leading electric vehicle (EV) company.

Tesla stock news

Goldman’s research report looked at the similarities and divergences between major S&P 500 stocks held by hedge funds and mutual funds. Goldman said that overlap between the two categories of investment managers typically leads to outperformance.

Tesla stock was notably the only one of the Magnificent Seven – Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, Alphabet – that did not make it to the overlapping long list. Instead, TSLA stock was listed under the banner of stocks that were both underweight among mutual funds and heavy shorts by hedge funds.

Though the data is somewhat dated, as of October 31, $16.9 billion worth of TSLA stock was held short or 3% of its float. Based on Goldman’s research, Tesla is the top short by value among hedge funds. Other notable shorts are Disney (DIS), Intel (INTC) and Pepsi (PEP).

Tesla’s gain on Wednesday was fairly measured compared to other names like Rivian Automotive (RIVN) and Nio (NIO). Long-dated Treasury yields sank on Wednesday, which has helped the risk-on mood. Nio is benefiting from a report that it is planning to spin off its battery manufacturing business in order to become more profitable.

Lithium stocks powered higher on Wednesday as US regulations regarding the EV supply chain were less strict than expected. Most of the new rules regard protecting US EV tax credits from benefiting Chinese companies. Crude Oil (WTI) also dropped below $70 a barrel in the session.

EV stocks FAQs

Electric vehicles or EVs are automobiles that use rechargable batteries and electric motors to accelerate rather than internal combustion engines (ICEs). They have been around for more that 100 years, but battery technology research & development was meager for much of the 20th century. Lithium-ion battery technology became advanced enough to produce EVs at scale in the late 1990s and 2000s, and sales have been steadily increasing since then Tesla’s Roadster was unveiled in 2008. EVs are viewed as a means of reducing carbon emissions since battery electric vehicles (BEVs) themselves produce zero emissions. Other vehicles called plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) utilize both battery electric power and ICEs as a backup.

EVs are growing from a small base, but they rose from 9% of global new auto sales in 2021 to 14% of the total in 2022. This was a 65% YoY growth rate, and the industry delivered 10.2 million EVs worldwide in 2022. Projections show this number climbing above 16 million in 2023. Across the world, market shares differ greatly among nations. Nearly 88% of Norwegian new car sales in 2022 were EVs. On the other hand, the United States, where much of the modern innovation in EVs was forged, had less than 8% of new vehicle sales go to EVs in 2022. The largest EV market in the world, China, saw 30% of the market go to EVs that year.

We know you’re thinking Elon Musk, but he’s probably more like the father of the mass-market, contemporary EV. All the way back in 1827, a Hungarian priest named Anyos Jedlik invented the electric motor and used it the following year to power a vehicle of sorts. French scientist Gaston Planté invented the lead-acid battery in 1859, and German engineer Andreas Flocken built the first true electric car for the public in 1888. EVs made up about 38% of all vehicles sold in the US around 1900. They began losing market share rapidly after 1910 when gasoline-powered vehicles grew much more affordable. They largely died off until new research programs in the 1990s led to gradual private sector investment in the 2000s.

China’s BYD is by far the largest manufacturer of EVs in the world. In 2022 it sold 1.8 million EVs and in the second half of the year made up 20% of the global market. The asterisk given to BYD is that the vast majority of these vehicles are hybrids. Tesla’s 12% market share is often treated as more significant than BYD, because it only sells BEVs and is the most famous EV brand in the world. Volkswagen, BMW and Wuling then round out the top five. As a new sector with heavy investment though, many startups have flooded the market. These include China’s Nio, Li Auto and Xpeng; a Swedish-Chinese manufacturer called Polestar; and Lucid and Rivian from the US.

Tesla stock forecast

Tesla stock has been stuck in a downtrend since reaching a range high just under $300 on July 19. Just last week, TSLA once again bounced lower after reaching the topline of the descending price channel. That failure to breach the topline led to three consecutive down days, also known as Three Black Crows. This typically signals a bearish reversal is in order.

The first confirmation, after possibly retesting the descending topline, would be a break of the 9-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which now trades just below $240. The another break of the 21-day SMA at $233 would lead traders to expect a sell-off to the $210 support floor. If TSLA stock continues its full price channel rotation, then the EV stock would descend all the way to test the bottom line in the $180s.

TSLA daily chart

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