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Automotive Monthly Newsletter and Podcast
Auto demand levels remain depressed on chip famine alongside race
between vaccine & variants; 2022 Light Vehicle demand set to
post 82.4 million (+3.7%)
Semiconductor shortages and wider supply chain disruptions
expected to linger until 2023
IHS Markit forecasts new light vehicle sales of nearly 82.4
million globally in 2022, up 3.7%. IHS Markit projects the industry
will finish out 2021 with nearly 79.4 million light vehicles sold,
and industry demand levels will continue to be restrained next year
as the semiconductor supply chain remains challenged. Tentative
demand recovery will continue across most regions, assuming the
ongoing availability of effective vaccines and apart from any major
impacts from the Omicron variant.
Full year 2021 sales are expected to be up just 2.9% from the
levels achieved in 2020. IHS Markit remains cautious on recovery
prospects, as the global auto industry grapples with this "perfect
storm" of unprecedented circumstances. Depressed vehicle output
levels are expected to impact vehicle lead times for some time,
pressuring depleted inventories and delaying fulfillment of
prevailing order levels.
"The path of the pandemic remains an important driver of the
2022 auto demand cycle, especially the "race" between vaccine and
variants. Concerns remain as winter arrives for Northern Hemisphere
nations, and the emergence of the Omicron variant represents a
worrying development," said Colin Couchman, executive director,
global light vehicle forecasting, IHS Markit.
Most regions face limited recovery prospects on supply
chain challenges and potential further COVID-19
flare-ups
The European auto industry looks set for a bleak mid-winter as
widening virus concerns combine with ongoing supply chain woes,
with concerns for German-based production. The 2021 Western and
Central European demand forecast foresees 13.9 million units, just
scraping into growth territory, up 0.2% y/y. 2022 demand is set at
15.0m units (+7.8%), according to IHS Markit.
"European car consumers are expected to hunker down for a second
winter of COVID-19, but the new year might struggle to deliver
meaningful improvement to new car sales levels," said Couchman.
Looking at 2022, US sales volumes are expected to reach nearly
15.5 million units, up an estimated 2.6% from the projected 2021
level of approximately 15.1 million units. "For 2022, the pace of
sales is expected to quicken in the second half of the year. Given
current inventory conditions, it's difficult to project significant
demand recovery in the first half of 2022. But we expect to exit
2022 with a pace of sales more recognizable to pre-COVID levels,
setting the stage for better volume outlooks into 2023 and 2024,"
according to Chris Hopson, manager, North American light vehicle
sales forecast, IHS Markit.
In Mainland China—for 2021, IHS Markit analysts foresee the
market down by 1% y/y, to 23.4 million units, as supply chain
shortages choke off market growth. Near-term risks are balanced,
and 2022 is currently set at 24.2 million (+3.3% y/y), with more
meaningful recovery expected for 2023—back above pre-crisis
levels to 26.9 million, up by 11.3% y/y.
Production expected to recover slowly through
2022
Global light vehicle production in 2021 is expected to finish at
75.5 million units, a paltry 1.2% improvement over 2020 levels.
For 2022, IHS Markit forecasts a rebound in light vehicle
production of 9.0 percent, to 82.3 million units. The outlook will
continue to be characterized by the availability of
automotive-grade chips, at least until 2023. The balance of
incremental capacity gains within the semiconductor sector,
heightened 'chips-per-vehicle' requirements and robust
non-automotive chip demand all feature in this assessment.
"Overall, while manufacturing operations in most regions are
expected to improve, capacity constraints within the semiconductor
supply chain remain the single most influential feature of the
forecast. As the semiconductor tide recedes, will this expose
further risks to the auto recovery? Threats elsewhere within the
supply chain could become more apparent as chip supplies improve,
notably, logistics, worker related issues, and key raw materials
shortages," said Mark Fulthorpe, executive director of light
vehicle production forecasts at IHS Markit.
In Greater China, IHS Markit forecasts modest growth for 2022 of
1.6 percent, to 24.3 million units. Europe is expected to produce
18.5 million units in 2022, up from an estimated 15.7 million this
year. For the North American region, momentum is improving heading
into 2022, though our outlook based on current forecasts remains at
nearly 15.2 million units; this reflects growth of just over 2.2
million units year over year. A more normalized supply chain is
forecast to support vehicle output levels of 90.6 million units for
2023, a further 10% y/y increase, and comfortably above
pre-pandemic output levels of 2019.
Electrification remains a growing dynamic—2021 has
seen an "arms race" of ambition as OEMs declare electrification
targets for coming 5-15 years
Recent months have witnessed an unprecedented flurry of OEM
announcements on electrification ambitions for the coming 5-15
years. Electric vehicles are fast evolving from a compliance side
hustle into fully fledged core offerings for many OEMs. At COP26
earlier this year, policymakers and regulators also shared their
visions for a greener future, including the US, the EU and the UK.
Transformational change is firmly on the agenda and making sense of
this arms race of ambition represents an ongoing challenge.
The automotive open system architecture (AUTOSAR) was developed in 2003 by engineers in the automotive industry to create an open and standardized software model for electronic control units (ECUs) used in vehicles. These engineers foresaw a seismic change in automobile engineering. Sophisticated software, control units, computing power, and cloud connectivity would enable the development of […]
