From cyber threats to geopolitical shifts, a deep dive into modern security challenges

On Monday, May 27, 2024, I attended the conference “Homeland Security and Resilience II” as the editor-in-chief of ACE. The event, held at the Chamber of Deputies and organized by the Future Forces Forum platform, successfully focused on identifying and minimizing threats and risks to the Czech Republic’s security system. Discussions encompassed the protection of citizens and critical infrastructure from terrorism, cyber threats, pandemics, and natural disasters. Key points included information sharing and coordination among government, private, and non-profit sectors. The conference took place under the auspices of the Chairman of the Committee on Security, Dr. Pavel Žáček, Ph.D.

Comprehensive security approach and financing

Tomáš Pojar, a national security advisor, emphasized that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the largest since World War II. In today’s multipolar world, no single nation can ensure global security, with instability prevalent in the Middle East and the Pacific region. The question of whether Iran will acquire nuclear weapons adds to this uncertainty. The need to manage crises independently, as well as in cooperation with allies, is paramount. Pojar highlighted the importance of long-term thinking and immediate action, stressing that predictability breeds trust. This trust must be built over several electoral periods, requiring consistency and a horizontal approach across ministries. The Czech Republic’s traditional vertical thinking must evolve to achieve this.

Pojar also underscored the necessity of maintaining defense spending at 2% of GDP. This level of investment is critical not only for national security and defense capabilities but also as a signal to the United States, especially given the potential threat of U.S. disengagement from NATO. The investment reinforces transatlantic ties and demonstrates serious commitment to defense. He warned that without such investment, transatlantic relationships could weaken, making the Czech Republic vulnerable. “Predators can smell blood,” he cautioned, stressing that internal and external security are intrinsically linked.

Internal and external security interdependency

Radek Kaňa, Deputy Minister of the Interior, confirmed Pojar’s stance, asserting that internal and external security are interconnected. The police must protect and cultivate societal resilience, preparing for potential involvement in armed conflict. He highlighted two critical aspects regarding Russia: it will not stop unless countered, and it is unafraid to use any means necessary. Investment in security is crucial, and while perfect preparation for every threat is impossible, societal resilience can be enhanced.

Kaňa noted that the unpredictability of modern threats requires robust preparation. The Czech Republic must develop a society capable of withstanding various crises. This includes fostering a culture of security awareness and readiness among the populace.

Strategic defense and societal resilience

Jan Jireš, Director of the Defense Policy and Strategy Division at the Ministry of Defense, highlighted that internal security and state resilience depend on robust defense capabilities and a functioning, resilient society. He emphasized the non-military aspects of defense, stating that a functioning state and resilient society are prerequisites for withstanding military conflicts. The new Czech defense strategy is interdepartmental, addressing these themes comprehensively.

Jireš reiterated the importance of NATO membership and collective defense. He referred to Article 3 of the Washington Treaty, which emphasizes self-defense before invoking collective defense under Article 5. Deterrence is the primary goal, requiring demonstration of the will and capability to punish aggressors. The Czech Republic has two key tasks: building military capabilities and ensuring host nation support for allied forces. This includes securing the territory to allow for the transit of thousands of troops and providing medical care to the wounded. These responsibilities necessitate significant financial, logistical, legislative, and personnel commitments.

Jireš also mentioned the need to move beyond the dichotomy of civilian versus military conflict, preparing for defense in peacetime. This requires involving the commercial sector and questioning whether 2% of GDP is sufficient, given past underfunding of defense. NATO’s future may see each member state ensuring its defense needs, irrespective of GDP percentage.

Addressing modern threats

Michal Koudelka, Director of the Security Information Service, discussed ongoing conflicts not only in Russia and Ukraine but also in Gaza and the broader information space. He highlighted the importance of combating misinformation and hybrid threats, which undermine national security.

Martin Vondrášek, President of the Police of the Czech Republic, identified key threats to national security, including migration, hybrid actions by foreign powers, cybercrime, terrorism, and active shooters. Extraordinary events such as COVID-19, floods, and tornadoes, along with the rise of anti-system movements, also pose significant challenges. Vondrášek stressed the need for personnel stabilization in security forces, systematic preparation for emergencies, and cooperation with agencies like Europol and Frontex. He cited warnings from a former Swedish police chief about the consequences of underestimating migration threats, which led to increased organized crime and active shooter incidents.

Technological threats and cybersecurity

Pavel Fischer, Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Security of the Senate, warned about the risks posed by Chinese electric vehicles equipped with espionage-capable chips. He criticized past negligence regarding Huawei phones and 5G networks, stressing the need for legislative measures to exclude risky suppliers from critical infrastructure. Fischer characterized China as an adversary, warning that technological and energy dependence on China could compromise national security. This dependence risks making the Czech Republic an unreliable partner to allies like the USA, potentially undermining the safety of allied forces on Czech soil. Trust and information sharing within the transatlantic space are crucial, necessitating uniform security standards.

Cybersecurity and cognitive warfare

Karel Řehka, Chief of the General Staff of the Czech Armed Forces, highlighted the vulnerability of civilian infrastructure in cyberspace. He emphasized the need for new legislation to secure IT supply chains and the importance of effective communication with the media. Řehka stressed that public awareness and informed consent are vital for maintaining trust in defense strategies.

Libor Kutěj, Director of the Institute of Intelligence Studies, introduced the concept of cognitive warfare. This form of warfare aims to influence not just what people think, but how they think, altering the entire process of reality assessment. This represents a significant threat, as it can undermine the cognitive foundations of decision-making processes.

Geopolitical engagement and long-term strategy

Jan Beroun, Director of Military Intelligence, discussed the phenomenon of “new wars,” where Russian threats extend beyond conventional military conflict. Russia’s influence is global, necessitating geopolitical engagement in regions like Africa to prevent destabilization and migration waves that could weaken Europe. Beroun warned that Russian warfare is ongoing, with varying intensity, and the Czech Republic must adopt a geopolitical approach rather than remain passive. Failure to do so could result in strategic defeat.

The conference underscored the necessity of a comprehensive, interdepartmental approach to security, emphasizing long-term strategic thinking and the critical need for societal resilience and robust defense capabilities. The insights shared by the speakers highlighted the complex and multifaceted nature of modern threats, requiring coordinated and well-resourced responses to ensure national security and resilience.

By: Katerina Urbanova, ACE
Photo credit: Katerina Urbanová, ACE

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• Source: https://aero-space.eu/2024/05/28/navigating-the-new-world-disorder-securing-the-czech-republics-future/