Bitcoin has been a source of disappointment for many in the crypto industry of late. The king of cryptocurrency has put up a rather poor show in terms of price action in the last two months. Well, it’s about time Bitcoin regained its former glory. Admittedly, there aren’t a lot of signs to suggest a major rally from hereon, but a few indications do point towards initial signs of recovery.
BTC/USDT | Source: Tradingview
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has recovered somewhat from its lows and breached a crucial level of resistance. And, the 50-day moving average. Even the RSI pointed towards a healthy rise in momentum at the time of writing. However, it is still trading below its 200 day moving average. Thereby, hinting that long-term bullishness hasn’t returned to the market yet.
Therefore, for BTC, a breakout above both the 200 DMA and the second resistance region of $52,000-54,000 is necessary. This, in order to shrug off all the bears holding down the market.
On-chain metrics also seem to suggest positivity for Bitcoin with the NVT ratio sustaining despite Bitcoin’s price recovery in the past few days. This presents a bullish opportunity to buy into the coin at an undervalued situation. And, the coin may give good returns if broader market sentiment revives going forward.
NVT Ratio | Source: Santiment
Along with the NVT Ratio, the adjusted price DAA divergence has also been flashing buy signals all over the place. Thus, prompting good buying opportunities.
Adjusted Price DAA Divergence | Source: Santiment
Along with that Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple indicates an attractive value proposition at the moment too. With the ratio still under one despite the recovery from the local lows. This primarily presents a good risk-to-reward scenario.
Puell Multiple | Source: Glassnode
However, it might be unwise to jump in to buy Bitcoin right now. Curiously, there are a few concerning signals to look out for. Taking a look at Bitcoin options data from Coinoptionstrack.com, it is pretty evident that a pull back may occur sooner rather than later.
Bitcoin option chain | Source: Coinoptionstrack.com
At press time, Bitcoin was trading roughly around $43,000. The above chart clearly shows the max pain around $41,000. In a way, suggesting that a pullback may occur close to expiry. Additionally, there is heavy call open interest at $40k and $42k, which is below the CMP.
Now, this can go both ways. Considering option writers to be more experienced traders who have a lot more money at stake, a small reversal down to $40k may be on the books. However, if these call writers were to book losses and liquidate their positions, the short covering would in turn push prices higher. High put open interest at $43k may come to the aid of bullish traders at that point. This would suggest, a very short-term bearishness may be on the cards but nothing that will damage the overall structure and sentiment.
Interestingly, from the point of view of an investor, there may be a good buying opportunity in Bitcoin. But a piecemeal approach to buying would be the advice in this scenario since a dip isn’t totally out of the question. Buy into the dips and average as you go along would be the best way forward.
