Russia has faced several setbacks since its February 2022 attack on Ukraine: an estimated hundred thousand military casualties, including to some of its best units; the recent mutiny by Prighozin’s Wagner troops; and the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive, which is slowly gaining ground. With these losses, the threat of a Russian attack against the NATO alliance has decreased, which has led some to argue that the United States should draw down its forces in Europe and focus on China’s more-formidable threat.

But the bulked-up U.S. presence will remain necessary for at least three to five years, for at least three reasons: to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty, to sustain U.S. commitments to NATO, and to encourage the development of partner nation capabilities that will eventually enable greater burden-sharing among allies.…

The remainder of this commentary is available at defenseone.com

Andrew Radin is a senior political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. Gian Gentile is deputy director of the RAND Army Research Division.

This commentary originally appeared on Defense One on July 23, 2023. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.