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In Canada, trends in zero-emission vehicles (ZEV = BEV and
PHEV) picked up dramatically for all light vehicle registrations as
of quarter 3 2022.
ZEVs account for one out of every 12 new vehicles registered in
Canada. ZEVs market share increased to 8.4% for 2022, up from 5.3%
in the previous period.
The market share of battery electric vehicles (BEV) increased
to 6.5%, with volume increasing by 56.0% year over year. Year over
year, total ZEV volume increased by 38.8%.
National Enhanced Fuel Type Trend
When compared to Q3 2021 year to date, new vehicle registrations
have fallen by 12.5% overall and the combined volume of xEV light
vehicles (EV/PHEV/HEV/ FCEV) increased by 14.7% as of Q3 2022. xEVs
now account for 15.2% of all new registrations; while traditional
ICE vehicles account for 84.8%.
Further comparisons of Q3 2022 against the previous year show
BEVs and PHEVs saw volume gains (25,368 and 287), while HEV and
FCEV each saw volume declines.
Inventory constraints continue to play a role on new vehicle
registrations. Despite the constraints, BEV adoption rates continue
to increase and have doubled from Q3 2021 (3.7%).
Automotive Monthly Newsletter &
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the commercial vehicle industry over the past few years...
Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) trends in Canada remain strong and
in 2021, 1 out 20 new vehicles registered in Canada was a ZEV.
Share of ZEV climbed to 5.6% up from 3.8% in 2020.
Total ZEV volume increased by 58% y/y, and Battery Electric
Vehicles (BEV) have grown 51% y/y.
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) have grown nationally
by 73% y/y.
British Columbia leads the way with adoption of
electrification, and ZEVs account for 13.0% of all new light
vehicles for 2021 in the province.
National Enhanced Fuel Type Trend
The combined volume of light vehicles of all electrification
types (including EV/PHEV/HEV/FCEV (xEV) grew 66% in 2021, when
compared to 2020. Likewise, hybrid EV (HEV) increased 74% or
+41,394 units, Fuel Cell EV (FCEV) increased 102 units, BEV 51% or
20,197 units and PHEV increased 73% or 12,000 units. The combined
xEV penetration now stands at 11.8%, up from 7.6% in 2020. ICE
vehicle share of Industry saw its largest decline, where ICE share
now stands at 88.2% a 4.2 percentage point drop from 2020.
Even in the face of the global pandemic and semiconductor
shortages, commercial vehicle product segments continue to move
forward. Light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and medium- and
heavy-duty vehicles are experiencing periods of growth and
transition.
IHS Markit recently completed a Light Commercial Vehicle study
and forecast which highlights trends in the light commercial
sector, including the trajectory of growth of electrification in
light commercial vehicles, and details how newcomers to the
industry are affecting that growth. Growth and transition in this
sector are influenced by an increase in e-commerce combined with
other factors favoring the introduction of electric commercial
vehicles.
Much of the growth in electrification in the light commercial
segment comes from companies new to the industry. These newcomers
are arriving without the dilemma of balancing the timing and volume
of electric vehicle (EV) introductions with the drawdown of volume
of legacy internal combustion engine (ICE)-based products. They do
not have the need to protect the profitability of their legacy
products. In contrast, traditional OEMs do have to balance, and in
some cases, temper the growth of EV products because of the need to
draw profits from ICE products.
Electrification of light commercial vehicles will occur across all
included body types, but at different degrees. Pickups and vans
lead the charge, but buses, particularly school buses, show
impressive growth of electrification. These are the body types that
clearly favored by new entrants to the market.
Medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, broadly defined to
include Class 3 as well as Class 4-8, are also experiencing growth
and transition. Vehicles in Operation (VIO) for GVW classes 3 - 8
combined has increased 9% since 2018. New registrations for those
same weight classes have increased 10% over the same period. This
level of growth in the vehicle parc will spur an increase in the
need for replacement parts to provide service and maintenance to
keep these vehicles on the road. In some cases, the rate of growth
of serviceable parts exceeds the growth of vehicles in operation.
Since 2018, the need for aftermarket parts for critical vehicle
systems has increased as follows:
Braking systems - 16%
Electrical systems - 15%
Steering, Suspension and Wheel End - 12%
This is an indicator that vehicle usage is increasing, driving
the need for additional maintenance.
IHS Markit has developed an Aftermarket Parts Demand Forecast,
based on the Truck Industry Profile Network (TIPNet), that can
provide expert analysis covering 12 aftermarket part categories for
vehicles in the GVW Classes 3 - 8.
Alongside the increase in medium and heavy-duty commercial
vehicle VIO and the resulting shifts in the aftermarket
opportunities, IHS Markit is also tracking increased prospects in
the heavier weight segments for zero-emission vehicles (ZEV),
including battery-electric (BEV) and fuel-cell (FCEV) trucks. The
soon-to-be-published 2021 update of IHS Markit's Reinventing the
Truck study features forecasts by fuel type to 2050 and all-new
scenarios, building on the latest announcements by manufacturers
and by policymakers around the world. Spurred by a spate of new
product introductions and the prospect of ZEV mandates in many U.S.
states, BEV trucks are likely to outpace FCEV trucks early on.
Among Class 4-7 medium-duty vehicles, the BEV take rate in the
baseline forecast is projected to climb as high as nearly 13% by
2028. Among class 8 heavy-duty trucks, the percentage is seen
somewhat lower, at just shy of 6%, but still markedly above current
levels. As time passes, and more fleets become familiar with the
technology, particularly in long-haul applications, FCEV trucks are
expected to narrow the gap. IHS Markit tracks OE-offered ZEV
commercial vehicle model introductions and finds that available
models globally will more than double from 2020 to mid-decade. In
parallel to rise in ZEV trucks, hybrid models will also see a
boost, the new Medium and Heavy-Duty Commercial Vehicle Alternative
Propulsion database shows.
From Light Commercial Vehicles to Heavy-Duty Vehicles, from
aftermarket service parts to brand new propulsion systems, IHS
Markit is focused on understanding the rate of change and the
underlying factors driving change.