Flash Risk Warning on Semiconductor Supply for H1 2022
The Risk in Outline: Will Omicron cut chip supply from
the Philippines?
A vertical increase in COVID-19 cases in the Philippines in
recent days poses the threat of government lockdowns that could
temporally sever its important Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly
and Test facilities (OSAT) from the already stressed and fragile
global supply chain.
In effect the Philippines could become a replay of the
'back-end' bottlenecks to semiconductor supply seen in Malaysia
during Q3 2021 that had a significant impact on global Auto
production.
Potential exposure is likely to be less than for Malaysia but
is still estimated at up to maximum of 1.4m units of lost vehicle
output within the next six months if full manufacturing lockdowns
were to be enforced.
Philippines Government has enacted several COVID restrictions
in recent days to control the climb of cases hoping to head off the
need for these more stringent lockdowns. However, the extensive use
of the Sinovac vaccination means that even two-dose vaccine
efficacy against Omicron may be weak or uncertain so the risks of a
hospitalisation surge could be high even with the reported milder
symptoms of Omicron variant
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