The capacity for analog chips is expected to grow, but it
is unlikely to be sufficient to meet the increased demand for chips
in cars; therefore, the supply may tighten again around the end of
2023.
The automotive semiconductor supply tightness will likely ease
in 2022 and in the first half of 2023. However, there is a risk of
pressure points building up again at the end of 2023 or early 2024.
According to IHS Markit's analysis, new concerns are emerging over
the supply of analog chips. After microcontrollers (MCU) in 2021,
analog chips are likely to become the main constraint for vehicle
production for the next three years.
The two major chip categories that have been most affected by
shortages are MCUs and analog chips. Earlier in 2021, MCUs received
all the attention. The proprietary nature of MCUs made it virtually
impossible to have dual sources of MCUs for an electronic control
unit (ECU) because of software and pinout differences at a minimum.
MCUs are manufactured on process nodes typically above 40
nanometers (nm), with some of them now starting to be processed at
28 nm. As memory and system-on-chips (SoCs) have captured more of
the semiconductor market share, investment has been concentrated
more on the advanced nodes to support growth in those areas and
less has been focused on mature process nodes.
There is an ongoing trend toward centralization of the
electrical/electronic (E/E) architecture, and it would result in a
smaller number of MCUs per vehicle. However, migrating to new
architectures and smaller process nodes is not beneficial for all
types of chips. For example, demand for analog chips will continue
to increase independently of new E/E architectures since they are
an essential part of many vehicle systems. Hundreds of analog chips
are required per car. All the following require analog chips: power
management of every ECU and SoC, signal conditioning for sensors,
bus transceivers for every ECU, drivers for each electric motor (up
to 100 in luxury cars), LED lamps, displays, radar transceivers,
high-end audio systems, and radio frequency (RF) front ends.
Now that the supply of MCUs is in a better shape, analog chip
supply is emerging as an issue. Analog chips typically use mature
chip processes, e.g., 90 nm to 300 nm. There are technical and
commercial reasons why these will continue to be produced at mature
progress nodes and not at leading-edge process nodes.
Unfortunately, the demand for analog chips is also increasing for
mobile phones—for the RF front-end, the sensor processing, the
high-end audio, and the contactless payment, to name a few.
Considering the growth in vehicle segments and propulsion mix, the
average number of analog chips per car is expected to increase by
26% in 2023 compared with 2021. This growth can be mainly
attributed to the ongoing electrification trend.
There is a front-end capacity deficit for mature process nodes
as most of the investment goes toward more advanced nodes.
According to our analysis, out of the total capital expenditure
announced in 2021 and 2022, 86% is directed at advanced
technologies requiring just a few chips in the car, while only 12%
is for the mature process, which is used to produce more than 90%
of the chips in the car. With the increase in demand for analog
chips, irrespective of the change in E/E architectures, this
imbalance in announced capital expenditure could cause future
bottlenecks for analog chips and other legacy nodes.
Short-term outlook for light vehicle
production
The expected shortage in analog chip supply will have a negative
impact on light vehicle production. However, in an optimistic
scenario, a decline in demand for analog chips by other industries
could result in an improved foundry capacity allocation for the
automotive industry. Under this scenario, it is also assumed that
the output of analog fabs will continue to increase at a similar
pace in the first quarter of 2022 through the third quarter of 2022
before slowing down. In such a scenario, analog chip production
capacity added per quarter will peak by the fourth quarter of
2023.
Steady demand for analog chips from other industries could
stabilize the capacity allocation for the automotive industry. This
is considered a conservative scenario. This scenario also
anticipates the output of analog fabs to increase at a normal pace
from early 2022. The amount of analog production capacity added per
quarter will flatten by second-quarter 2023. In the median
scenario, the estimated year-on-year increase in analog chip
production will be 18% in 2022 and 13% in 2023.
To analyze the impact on car production, this capacity is
converted into the maximum number of cars that could be built in
2022 and 2023. This shows a potential ceiling for car production of
around 24 million units per quarter from the third quarter of 2022
onward and a decline in car production from the end of 2023 to
early 2024. Predominantly, this can be attributed to the expected
growth in the number of chips per vehicle in the next few years. In
comparison with 2021, the average number of analog chips per car is
going to be much higher in 2023. The available extra capacity is
insufficient to meet the fast increase of analog chips in cars,
driven by ongoing trends such as electrification and a higher
number of infotainment and advanced driver-assistance systems
(ADAS) features.
The semiconductor chip capacity will grow, but hardly fast
enough to meet the increased demand for analog chips in cars. After
MCUs in 2021, analog chips are likely to become the main constraint
for vehicle production in the next three years. The number of
analog chips per car increases faster than MCUs irrespective of
propulsion type, sales segment, and E/E architecture. These analog
chips are also in high demand in many other industries such as the
smartphone and consumer electronics industries.
Current capital expenditure and capacity trajectory show that
situations might improve for the automotive industry in 2022 and
early 2023. A supply tightness may be formed toward the end of 2023
or early 2024. This is dependent upon several parameters, such as
capacity growth for mature nodes, the analog fab capacity
allocation for the automotive industry, and demand for analog chips
by other industries. In the coming years, considering the efforts
by various players in the automotive ecosystem, there could be more
investments for the expansion of analog capacity to lift the
potential ceiling for car production. Automakers are working on
establishing better visibility to the semiconductor supply chain by
forming more direct relationships with foundries. This could result
in improved capacity allocation for the automotive industry and
improved vehicle production capacity in 2023 and beyond.
Authors:
Jeremie Bouchaud - Director, Autonomy, E/E & Semiconductor, IHS
Markit
Hrishikesh S - Research Analyst, Automotive, IHS Markit
Read more articles like this one. Subscribe to AutoTechInsight. AutoTechInsight provides a wealth of original thought leadership,
data, and analysis on a broad spectrum of automotive industry
topics and sectors. Visit AutoTechInsight
to view all our offerings.
In January 2021, the FAA quietly released a new set of supersonic flight test regulations to facilitate the next generation of Concorde successors. Here, Australian Aviation lists the industry big-hitters fighting to be the first to market with smaller, quieter and more environmentally friendly aircraft likely to turn the business jet market on its head
Planning to connect cities in the United States to Japan and Korea via its hub at Ted Stevens International Airport in Anchorage, Alaska, a la Icelandair’s routes to Europe via Reykjavik, Northern Pacific Airways (NPA) rolled out their first painted 757-200 at an extravagant event at southern California’s San Bernardino International Airport (SBD). The airline […]
American Airlines and British Airways announced more details regarding plans to co-locate operations at John F. Kennedy International Airport’s (JFK) Terminal 8 beginning Dec. 1, 2022. Enabled by a $400 million investment to redevelop, expand and enhance the terminal, the move will bring the Atlantic Joint Business partners closer together. Jointly, the terminal investments and […]
Have you finally reached the point where you can't do without Windows 11? No problem—getting your hands on Microsoft's latest operating system is straightforward.
You can obtain it one of three ways: waiting for Windows 10 to push it to you, triggering the download using an application, or creating installation media. We walk you through each method below.
However, before getting started, we advise first verifying that your PC is compatible with Windows 11. It can save you some time if it turns out you're stuck with Windows 10. Also, if you're starting from scratch (or, ahem, have been running an earlier version of Windows unactivated), you might also want to snag a cheap Windows 10 license. Because upgrades are free, it'll allow you full access to Windows 11 features for far less.
Once you've confirmed that your system is ready to go, here's how to download Windows 11.
Windows Update
Mark Hachman / IDG
Eventually, everyone will have Windows 11 pushed to them via Windows Update. You should get a notification when it's ready, but if you haven't seen one yet, you can check manually. Head to Start > Settings > Update & Security > Windows Update > Check for updates.
Microsoft recommends this method over the others, so taking the lazy route is perfectly acceptable. Some users can run into hardware and software issues when forcing an upgrade earlier. Overall, waiting can be advantageous—Windows 11 continually gets new tweaks and additions as time passes.
Note: This method is the only way to get Windows 11 for PCs with an Arm processor (e.g., Qualcomm Snapdragon chips.)
Windows 11 Installation Assistant
PCWorld
Is Windows Update still not coughing up Windows 11? For PCs with an Intel or AMD processor, you can move along the process by using the Windows 11 Installation Assistant. This program has a user-friendly interface that does the work of downloading Windows 11 and then initiating its installation.
To get started, download and run the Installation Assistant. If you haven't already run the PC Health Check App as part of verifying your PC's Windows 11 compatibility, you'll be prompted to download and install that application. After you're given the green light, you can then proceed onward with Windows 11.
Installation Media
PCWorld
Sometimes you need or want to use a bootable USB or DVD to install Windows 11—perhaps the Installation Assistant isn't working for upgrading Windows 10 to Windows 11. Or maybe a clean install is required, because you want to completely wipe Windows 10 or you have a PC that has no operating system yet.
For the files necessary to create that installation media, head to Microsoft's Windows 11 download page. Existing Windows users can use Microsoft's Media Creation Tool, which handles the download for both USB drives and DVDs. Mac and Linux must grab the ISO file for Windows 11.
Afterward, you may need to undertake some additional steps to create your media. The Media Creation Tool only produces bootable USB drives. You have to burn DVDs yourself after the download finishes. If you grabbed the ISO directly, the process of making a bootable USB drive or DVD is also on you.
Don't forget
After you're done downloading Windows 11, you also have to install it. For smooth sailing, we recommend that before you begin, you check out our Windows 11 upgrade checklist, as well as our guide on how to how to upgrade to Windows 11. If nothing else, back up your PC (as applicable) before you install Windows 11. Even if you plan to keep all of your files and applications, a simple upgrade can on occasion go awry.
Condor has made this announcement: Discover all of Greece: Starting this summer, Germany’s most popular leisure airline will offer 17 nonstop connections to the popular vacation destination. Together with the new partner airline SKY express, Condor now enables easy onward flights to eleven additional destinations. The new partnership will also increase connections to existing destinations. […]