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With conflict in Ukraine comes more reminders of the
fragility of the world's automotive supply chains. The March light
vehicle production update from S&P Global Mobility (formerly
the automotive team at IHS Markit) is likely to downgrade its 2022
forecast by 2.6mn units (i.e. to 81.6 million). The downgrade
decomposition will broadly comprise just under 1mn units from lost
demand in Russia and Ukraine; and the remainder split between 1)
worsening semiconductor supply issues, and 2) loss of
Ukraine-sourced wiring harnesses and other components respectively.
In addition, the complete loss of Russian palladium is a tail risk
with the potential to become the industry's biggest supply
constraint.
Pent-up demand reduced by roughly one
third
Pre-Ukraine invasion on 24th Feb, the global auto industry had
already spent over a year under capacity constrained conditions,
with (we estimate) pent up consumer demand up to 10mn units (or
12%) above this year's achievable production. The sudden loss of
economic confidence (via high oil and raw material prices, weak
equity markets, and tightening interest rates) is dampening demand,
and could now reduce that shortfall by roughly one third - though
significant pent-up demand remains.
Supply chain remains the constraining
factor
While the macro concerns are significant, the supply chain (and
not underlying consumer demand) will continue to set the
upper limit for vehicle unit sales in the medium term. The key
crunch points weighing on production levels post invasion fall into
two broad categories: Semiconductor materials
supply (specifically via Ukrainian neon and Russian palladium), and
electrical wiring harness sourcing.
Specialist material outages could curtail semiconductor
recovery
Semiconductor supply challenges are worsening on two fronts:
First, via neon gas supply disruptions. Ukraine's
firms control around half of high purity neon supply to the
semiconductor industry, where the element is used in lasers that
etch patterns onto chips. Our channel checks suggest immediate
risks are low thanks to semiconductor makers holding sufficient gas
inventory, but visibility is poor. The second challenge is
availability of palladium, used in semiconductor
plating and finishing. In an additional negative twist, China
COVID-19 cases at a 2 year high are triggering
quarantines and plant closures in northeastern manufacturing hubs
including Shenzhen and Changchun. All of the above raise the risk
of losses from 'stranded' chips, i.e.
semiconductors for which the 'right' car cannot be built due to
other constraints.
Ukraine wiring harnesses difficult to
substitute
Our channel checks suggest Ukraine-built wiring harnesses were
likely destined for around 0.5 to 1mn vehicles pre-invasion. These
harnesses comprise complex and manually constructed assemblages of
cable. Although some dual sourcing arrangements exist, for the most
part switching will be difficult due to
already-constrained harness capacity in and around Europe.
Production relocations could take 3-10 months due to wait times on
machinery and multi-month staff training times. Almost half (45%)
of Ukraine-built wiring harnesses are normally exported to Germany
and Poland, placing German carmakers at high
exposure. Our analysis suggest Opel (i.e. Stellantis via
Leoni), VW (via Leoni and Sumitomo) are over-exposed versus peers.
On the plus side, once ramped up - lost production could be
recovered quickly into late 2022 and beyond.
Palladium: Next 'black swan' candidate
While low probability as things stand, palladium has the
potential to become the industry's biggest supply
constraint. Russia produces 40% of the world's mined
palladium according to USGS. Around two thirds of palladium use is
in vehicles, where it is the active element in catalytic converters
for exhaust aftertreatment. If Russian palladium supply were
suddenly interrupted (due to a western boycott, or Russia stopping
supply), production of all vehicles using such sourcing (including
hybrids) could potentially stop. Although platinum is an
alternative element, it is similarly expensive and also largely
Russia-originated. Substitution of any kind is a regulatory
minefield since design changes require regulatory re-homologation,
which can take months. We do not currently incorporate
major palladium disruptions in our forecast base case.
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SINGAPORE, Mar 11, 2022 - (ACN Newswire) - Cake DeFi, a Singapore-based fintech platform that makes DeFi (decentralised finance) services and applications accessible for everyone, has launched Cake DeFi Ventures (CDV), its venture capital arm with US$100 million in earmarked capital.
Cake DeFi Ventures (CDV) is looking to invest in technology startups in Web3, gaming and fintech - especially those in the metaverse, NFT, blockchain and esports industries - that will bring synergistic value to Cake DeFi's core business. Based in Singapore, CDV will look for global investment opportunities in startups around the world.
CDV is led by Cake DeFi's Co-founders Dr Julian Hosp (Chief Executive Officer) and U-Zyn Chua (Chief Technology Officer) along with newly appointed Investment Partner Nicholas Khoo:
- Dr Julian Hosp is a seasoned blockchain entrepreneur, widely regarded as a leading influencer in the crypto and blockchain space. His vision is to bring blockchain awareness and understanding to a billion people by 2025.
- U-Zyn Chua, a blockchain engineer, enthusiast and investor for over a decade, was a Smart Nation Fellow on blockchain for the Singapore government. He was also the Lead Architect for the world's first Central Bank Digital Currency (CDBC) - the Sand Dollar in the Bahamas.
- Nicholas Khoo brings over 20 years in the tech sector with diversified experience in startups and multinationals such as Visa. For more than ten years, Nicholas has invested in a number of successful and fast-growing tech startups and has also served on the investment committees of investors such as the Global Fund.
Portfolio companies of CDV will receive strong support from Cake DeFi's global and experienced leadership team, and the opportunity to access Cake DeFi's connections, resources and expertise within the global blockchain industry.
"By launching Cake DeFi Ventures, we want to bring cryptocurrency and blockchain capabilities to the world. Cake DeFi is one of Southeast Asia's fastest-growing fintech platforms. The projects that we invest in can expect to receive strong support scaling globally," said Dr. Julian Hosp, Co-founder and CEO of Cake DeFi.
Deploys First Strategic Investment into US-Based 'The Edge Of Company, Inc.'
At the time of CDV's launch, the firm was in early to late-stage discussions with a number of global startups, including those in Southeast Asia, the U.S. and Europe. For its first strategic investment, Cake DeFi has selected tech, media and events startup, The Edge Of Company, which has been building the community and ecosystem for the NFT and Web3 space.
"The entire team at The Edge Of Company is honored to have Cake DeFi Ventures as part of the Edge family. Their know-how, relationships, and strategic insights will help propel this Web3 rocketship to new heights across our platform of tech, media, and events," said Jeff Kelley, Co-Founder, The Edge Of Company, Inc.
"As an extension of our multiple blockchains support and having built up an R&D arm with cryptography deep tech capability, investing in companies that bring synergies to Cake DeFi's core business will allow us to enhance and broaden our Web3 offerings," said U-Zyn Chua, Co-founder and CTO of Cake DeFi.
To apply for funding from CDV, please email contact@cakedefi.vc with the project details. CDV will be in touch with shortlisted projects. Venture capital firms or investment funds interested in co-investment opportunities or strategic partnerships may also reach out for further discussion.
ABOUT CAKE DEFI
Cake DeFi is a fully transparent, highly innovative and regulated fintech platform dedicated to providing access to decentralised financial services and applications by enabling users to generate returns from their crypto and digital assets. It is operated and registered in Singapore and is fully compliant with all regulatory requirements of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).
By enabling and empowering its users to harness the potential of decentralised finance (DeFi), Cake DeFi aims to educate and inform people around the world on crypto and DeFi in a simple, easy to understand and hassle-free manner.
In 2021, Cake DeFi saw a tenfold growth in its registered customer base, with over US$1bn customer assets. In the same year, Cake DeFi's customers received over US$230 million in rewards.
ABOUT THE EDGE OF COMPANY, INC.
A media, events, and tech venture, The Edge of Company launched in 2021 with the Edge of NFT Podcast and has since created the NFT LA conference. NFT LA hosted March 28-31, 2022 will be the largest NFT & Web3 gathering in Southern California, and at over 100 episodes the podcast continues to feature "the top 1% in NFTs today and what will stand the test of time." Believers in economic structures that value the attention of every participant, the company leverages its three founders' experiences in various domains including blockchain, fashion, real estate, music, neuroscience, foodtech and high-growth startups to catalyze co-creation in the Web3 and NFT space.
Copyright 2022 ACN Newswire. All rights reserved. www.acnnewswire.comCake DeFi, a Singapore-based fintech platform that makes DeFi (decentralised finance) services and applications accessible for everyone, has launched Cake DeFi Ventures (CDV), its venture capital arm with US$100 million in earmarked capital.