The Sandbox, a rising star in the metaverse ecosystem, positions itself as a play-to-earn virtual world where players can own, build and monetize virtual assets and gaming experiences. The project has partnered with many influencers, brands, and artists, the likes of which include Snoop Dogg, Atari, and Deadmau5. The Sandbox recently launched their alpha season […]
There always seems to be a lot of disputes and disagreements when it comes to which updates need to happen to which crypto networks and why. But if there is one update needed for the entire crypto space that I think we can all agree on, it is that we all need an easier way […]
We surely cannot. With Messi (see cases C-449/18P and C-474/18P MESSI) and Miley Cyrus (case T‑368/20 MILEY CYRUS), we learnt that reputation or renown of (personal) names is a factor which should be taken in consideration when comparing marks and which may ultimately exclude confusion with an earlier similar mark. However, two recent cases seem...
To ensure load unload of deep draft vessels the Matarbari port is essential for Bangladesh and adjacent countries and areas. The Matarbari deep sea port has a 16m depth that will help 16m draft vessels to unload their cargo at the terminal. At deep sea, currently mother vessels unload the cargo at feeder vessel and they carry the cargo to the Chittagong port. The present seaports (Chattogram sea port and Mongla sea port) of the country do not have the capacity to handle huge containers and vessels and the building of a deep sea port is the only solution. Chittagong port can’t load unload from more than 9.5 meter vessels.
Automotive Monthly Newsletter and Podcast
Auto demand levels remain depressed on chip famine alongside race
between vaccine & variants; 2022 Light Vehicle demand set to
post 82.4 million (+3.7%)
Semiconductor shortages and wider supply chain disruptions
expected to linger until 2023
IHS Markit forecasts new light vehicle sales of nearly 82.4
million globally in 2022, up 3.7%. IHS Markit projects the industry
will finish out 2021 with nearly 79.4 million light vehicles sold,
and industry demand levels will continue to be restrained next year
as the semiconductor supply chain remains challenged. Tentative
demand recovery will continue across most regions, assuming the
ongoing availability of effective vaccines and apart from any major
impacts from the Omicron variant.
Full year 2021 sales are expected to be up just 2.9% from the
levels achieved in 2020. IHS Markit remains cautious on recovery
prospects, as the global auto industry grapples with this "perfect
storm" of unprecedented circumstances. Depressed vehicle output
levels are expected to impact vehicle lead times for some time,
pressuring depleted inventories and delaying fulfillment of
prevailing order levels.
"The path of the pandemic remains an important driver of the
2022 auto demand cycle, especially the "race" between vaccine and
variants. Concerns remain as winter arrives for Northern Hemisphere
nations, and the emergence of the Omicron variant represents a
worrying development," said Colin Couchman, executive director,
global light vehicle forecasting, IHS Markit.
Most regions face limited recovery prospects on supply
chain challenges and potential further COVID-19
flare-ups
The European auto industry looks set for a bleak mid-winter as
widening virus concerns combine with ongoing supply chain woes,
with concerns for German-based production. The 2021 Western and
Central European demand forecast foresees 13.9 million units, just
scraping into growth territory, up 0.2% y/y. 2022 demand is set at
15.0m units (+7.8%), according to IHS Markit.
"European car consumers are expected to hunker down for a second
winter of COVID-19, but the new year might struggle to deliver
meaningful improvement to new car sales levels," said Couchman.
Looking at 2022, US sales volumes are expected to reach nearly
15.5 million units, up an estimated 2.6% from the projected 2021
level of approximately 15.1 million units. "For 2022, the pace of
sales is expected to quicken in the second half of the year. Given
current inventory conditions, it's difficult to project significant
demand recovery in the first half of 2022. But we expect to exit
2022 with a pace of sales more recognizable to pre-COVID levels,
setting the stage for better volume outlooks into 2023 and 2024,"
according to Chris Hopson, manager, North American light vehicle
sales forecast, IHS Markit.
In Mainland China—for 2021, IHS Markit analysts foresee the
market down by 1% y/y, to 23.4 million units, as supply chain
shortages choke off market growth. Near-term risks are balanced,
and 2022 is currently set at 24.2 million (+3.3% y/y), with more
meaningful recovery expected for 2023—back above pre-crisis
levels to 26.9 million, up by 11.3% y/y.
Production expected to recover slowly through
2022
Global light vehicle production in 2021 is expected to finish at
75.5 million units, a paltry 1.2% improvement over 2020 levels.
For 2022, IHS Markit forecasts a rebound in light vehicle
production of 9.0 percent, to 82.3 million units. The outlook will
continue to be characterized by the availability of
automotive-grade chips, at least until 2023. The balance of
incremental capacity gains within the semiconductor sector,
heightened 'chips-per-vehicle' requirements and robust
non-automotive chip demand all feature in this assessment.
"Overall, while manufacturing operations in most regions are
expected to improve, capacity constraints within the semiconductor
supply chain remain the single most influential feature of the
forecast. As the semiconductor tide recedes, will this expose
further risks to the auto recovery? Threats elsewhere within the
supply chain could become more apparent as chip supplies improve,
notably, logistics, worker related issues, and key raw materials
shortages," said Mark Fulthorpe, executive director of light
vehicle production forecasts at IHS Markit.
In Greater China, IHS Markit forecasts modest growth for 2022 of
1.6 percent, to 24.3 million units. Europe is expected to produce
18.5 million units in 2022, up from an estimated 15.7 million this
year. For the North American region, momentum is improving heading
into 2022, though our outlook based on current forecasts remains at
nearly 15.2 million units; this reflects growth of just over 2.2
million units year over year. A more normalized supply chain is
forecast to support vehicle output levels of 90.6 million units for
2023, a further 10% y/y increase, and comfortably above
pre-pandemic output levels of 2019.
Electrification remains a growing dynamic—2021 has
seen an "arms race" of ambition as OEMs declare electrification
targets for coming 5-15 years
Recent months have witnessed an unprecedented flurry of OEM
announcements on electrification ambitions for the coming 5-15
years. Electric vehicles are fast evolving from a compliance side
hustle into fully fledged core offerings for many OEMs. At COP26
earlier this year, policymakers and regulators also shared their
visions for a greener future, including the US, the EU and the UK.
Transformational change is firmly on the agenda and making sense of
this arms race of ambition represents an ongoing challenge.
I am traveling for the last time this year and when I am on the road I get to reflect a lot on what is actually going on within supply chains and what we can expect into the future. Here are some things I have reflected on and believe for 2022:
Disruption is not Going Away:
Short of a major economic turndown, the container issues, ship issues, port issues, driver and transportation issues all will continue through 2022 and into 2023. There is no evidence that until significant ship and container capacity comes on line (2023) there will be much improvement. As we have learned this last few weeks, the “appearance” of improvement has been somewhat of a mirage. Ships are slowing down and they are at anchor just further out at sea.
COVID Is Moving from a Pandemic to an Endemic:
The definition of an endemic is something that is around us and never going away. Covid will be around us, at a baseline level for the foreseeable future. The next time you hear someone say to you, “When this is over… “ , remind them we are going into our 3d year. This is the “way it is” and masks, vaccines and therapeutics will be needed likely for the remainder of my life. Supply chains cannot “wait until this is over “ to implement change and execute process improvements. We have to learn to work within it.
Shippers Will Continue To Take More Control of The Assets:
We all have seen the stories of big companies leasing ships but who would have thought a large furniture company would buy a large trucking company? This is a perfect example where shippers will be adjusting their supply chains to deal with the massive margin inflation in purchasing of supply chain services. It takes a while but supply chains will adjust. Product will be on-shored, assets will be insourced, and networks will be redesigned to adjust and mitigate the inflation.
This was started by Amazon when they bought Kiva Robots and they have progressively taken control of their own destiny. Amazon will surpass UPS and FEDEX as the largest package shipper (on their own assets) sometime next year. The massive margin inflation passed to shippers this year is not sustainable and it will end.
We Will See 3 Interest Rate Hikes in 2022:
This is breaking news as it was today the Fed had their press conference after the December FOMC meeting. You decide what this means for your business but suffice to say the “punch bowl” is going to be removed from this economy. I personally believe this will mean a number of “zombie” companies will struggle to survive. The easy money will be gone and companies which generate no profit will not continue to be valued at such high levels as they are today.
A Few Charts:
Those who know me know I track the FRED Inventory to Sales ratios as an indicator telling us what stage the restocking and the “normalization” of supply chain is in. The news is that we are still dramatically lower than we need to be and this means restocking will continue for the foreseeable future (See Disruption is Not Going Away above):
Below is a great visualization showing what is happening with COVID and is updated through today, December 15th:
Over the next few weeks I will get a bit more granular on my predictions however this provides a good high level overview of what 2023 looks like.
With this information it really makes sense to play The WHO: Don’t Get Fooled Again!