• USDIndex – spiked to 110.75, before slipping below 110.00 yesterday, but still holds the bid close to 20-year highs and trades at 109.50 now. Yields also slipped, but the curve remains inverted. Fed Fund Futures now at 79%/21% for 75bp vs. 50 bp September 21. Fedspeak Collins  – inflation at 2% is the Fed’s “Job One,” Vice Chair Brainard said tight monetary policy will continue “for as long as it takes to get inflation down.”
• EUR – ECB action today and 75bp also in the frame.  EUR rallied back to Parity yesterday and trades at  1.0093 now. EU plans a price cap on Russian gas prices – Putin warns of “winter freeze”.  
• JPY rallies again (yet more new 24-year highs) tested to 145.00 & holds at 143.50. Japan MOF, FSA, and BOJ to hold meeting at 0745 GMT today.
• GBP new 37-year lows tested 1.1400 yesterday, back to 1.1515 now. New PM Truss set to announce £100bln emergency energy plan, via massive increase in government borrowing. 
• Stocks US stocks rallied as Dollar & Yields cooled (S&P500 3979). Nasdaq best performer (+2.14%). TWTR +6.6%, TSLA +3.38%, Globalstar +21% (new satellite partner for APPLE’s new iPhone 14, Watch 8 Ultra and new AirPods (no news on new services). Share price unmoved after hours.   

• USOil tanked (-5%+) on Russia/EU situation; and global outlook. Trades at $82.65 now from overnight lows at $81.40 now. Summer highs were north of $123.50.
• Gold – also rallied from lows under $1700 at  $1691, to $1718.60 now.
• BTC – plunged to 18.5k lows yesterday and remains under 20k at 19.3k now. 

Overnight & Today – US Weekly Claims, ECB Announcement, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Powell, Evans, Kashkari & BoC’s Rogers.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPCHF (-0.31%). Continues to decline, yesterday breaking under 1.1300 to 1.1220 lows which are being re-tested now. MAs aligning lower,  MACD histogram negative & signal line neutral, RSI 39.90,  H1 ATR 0.00137, Daily ATR 0.00814.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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