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Fed’s Bowman says inflation expectations appear to be well anchored

Date:

Earlier from Bowman here:

More now:

  • Inflation expectations appear to be well anchored
  • Inflation risks haven’t changed much
  • Still seeing high inflation readings, unsure when it will peak

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I’ve posted before on inflation and anchoring.

A concern for central banks is to keep inflation expectations anchored. In a nutshell:

  • The argument is that inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling. For example during times of increasing inflation – people see inflation rising so they tend to buy more quickly, thus prompting prices to rise faster. People expect faster inflation (i.e. its ‘unanchored’ … rising quickly)
  • On the flipside, if inflation is either very low or in deflation (i.e. general falling prices), people hold off purchasing ’cause there is no rush if prices are falling, and again the argument is this behaviour can feed on itself and grow as a problem. People expect falling prices to fall harder (‘unanchored’).

The RBA has a much, much more detailed look at inflation expectations and in particular its impact on fixed interest markets, link here. Even just checking out the introduction to the paper gives good information.

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