- With less than five months until the election, it’s increasingly unlikely that President Donald Trump will be able to repeat his success in 2016, when he lost the popular vote but won the electoral college.
- Trump has deep underwater approval ratings, is receiving poor marks for his handling of his the COVID-19 pandemic and race relations, and is behind in several key swing states.
- The president also faces demographic challenges with independents, white women, and voters 65 and older.
- In 2016, the winner-take-all dynamics of the electoral college led to Trump carrying Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by less than one percentage point.
- This year, that same dynamic may work against him.
- Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
With election day looming in just under five months, President Donald Trump could see his electoral college firewall collapse out from under him.
The president faces a triple whammy of historically low approval ratings, poor marks for his handling of both the COVID-19 pandemic and recent protests over racism and police brutality, and being on the defense in several key states he narrowly carried in 2016.
The current circumstances and most recent polling data will likely evolve and certainly doesn’t guarantee a huge loss for Trump, who won the 2016 election despite polling well behind 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton for much of the election cycle.
But for an incumbent president who has been in office for over three years, Trump finds himself in an increasingly precarious position.
The latest Gallup poll, conducted May 28-June 4, found that 39% approve of Trump’s job performance while 57% disapprove, putting his approval rating around in the same territory as former President Jimmy Carter at the same time in his presidency.
Nationally, Biden leads Trump by 8 percentage points on average in Real Clear Politics’ averaged tracker of general election match-up polls.
Out of 76 national polls in Real Clear Politics’ tracker conducted in the last six months that included a hypothetical general election match-up between Biden and Trump, Trump has only led Biden in two.
The last survey from a major pollster that showed Trump and Biden tied was a Fox News poll conducted in early April, and the most recent survey to show Trump leading Biden was an Emerson College poll conducted between February 16 and 18.
Americans don’t vote for president in a national election. Americans vote for electors who vote for the president. Forty-eight states, except for Maine and Nebraska, use a winner-take-all system in which the candidate that wins the highest percentage of the vote wins all the state’s electoral college votes.
In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by just over 3 million votes while winning the electoral college, thanks to razor-thin victories by margins of less than one percentage point in crucial swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
While the machinations of the electoral college helped Trump sweep to victory as a populist outsider in 2016, the same system could work against him in 2020.
In the pre-pandemic days of 2019, when the economy was booming, many analysts pointed to Trump’s strength among non-college-educated white voters, and the large proportion of those voters in the non-voter pool in key swing states that give Trump room to grow in 2020.
Since 2016, the predominately white and working-class “Obama-Trump voters” have received a significant amount of media attention. But another group that has received substantially less scrutiny.
There remains a segment of voters who shifted from Mitt Romney in 2012 to Hillary Clinton in 2016, helping Democrats flip 40 seats in the 2018 midterms.
Amid the pandemic and nationwide protests, this cohort could pose serious trouble for Trump’s re-election chances in places like Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina.
In addition to Trump trailing Biden in national polls, he’s currently behind in several of the key battleground states he carried in 2016 and shows signs of vulnerability in Republican-leaning states that he carried with much larger margins, like Ohio and Georgi.:
- In Wisconsin, which Trump carried by 0.7 percentage points in 2016, Biden leads head-to-head polling by 3.4 percentage points on average in RealClearPolitics’ tracker. Trump hasn’t led a high-quality poll of the state against Biden since a Quinnipiac University poll conducted in February.
- In Michigan, which Trump carried by just 0.3 percentage points in 2016, Biden currently leads by 7.3 percentage points on average in RealClearPolitics’ tracker. Trump hasn’t led Biden in a Michigan poll either in RealClearPolitics’ or FiveThirtyEight’s tracker since early March.
- In Pennsylvania, which Trump carried by 0.7 percentage points in 2016, Biden currently leads Trump by 3.3 percentage points on average in RealClearPolitics’ tracker.
- In Florida, which Trump carried by 1.2 percentage points in 2016, Biden currently leads Trump by 3.4 points on average in RealClearPolitics’ tracker. The last polls showing Trump leading Biden in a general election match-up were released in early March.
- In Arizona, which Trump carried by 3.5 percentage points in 2016, Biden leads Trump by 3.4 percentage points on average in RealClearPolitics’ tracker. The most recent poll in FiveThirtyEight’s tracker to show Trump leading Biden outside the margin of error in Arizona was conducted by Trump’s own pollster, Fabrizio, Lee, & Associates, in December 2019.
- In North Carolina, which Trump carried by 3.6 percentage points in 2016, Trump now only leads by 0.3 percentage points on average in RealClearPolitics’ tracker.
- In Ohio, which Trump won by 8.1 percentage points in 2016, Biden now leads by one percentage point on average in RealClearPolitics’ tracker. The most recent poll of Ohio, conducted by Fox News from May 30 to June 2, showed Biden leading Trump by two percentage points.
- In Georgia, Trump is leading Biden by 7.5 percentage points on average in RealClearPolitics’ tracker. But a spate of bad Republican internal polls point to troubling signs for Trump and other Republicans in the state.
Biden expanding the map and putting states like Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia in play puts Trump on the defense, and is making the Trump campaign invest resources in state previously believed to be locked down.
Outlets including Insider, The New York Times, and Axios have reported that Trump is concerned not just with the results of public polls, but with his own internal polling numbers, which show him well behind Biden.
Biden’s strength among seniors could give him an edge in several swing states
One of Trump’s key demographic victories in 2016 was voters 65 and older. He won the group nationally by a margin of 52% to 45% over Clinton, according to CNN exit polls.
Trump won 65+ voters by even larger margins in key battleground states, carrying the group by 23 percentage points in North Carolina, 17 percentage points in Florida, 13 percentage points in Arizona, and ten percentage points in Pennsylvania, per CNN.
Not only does the 65+ group have the highest voter turnout of any other age bracket, but seniors also tend to favor Republicans over Democrats nationwide.
Trump’s performance among seniors in 2016 was about on par with Mitt Romney’s in 2012, but Biden has thrown a wrench into that dynamic.
Some research points to Biden breaking away with seniors even before the coronavirus outbreak. In July, Biden held a 10-point lead over Trump in the Democracy Fund and UCLA Nations cape’s survey, outperforming his then-competitor Sen. Bernie Sanders by six to eight points in his matchup against Trump.
Voters tend to perceive Biden as more moderate, according to the same survey, which may help set him apart from fellow septuagenarians like Trump and Sanders.
Biden cleans up among seniors in the Nationscape polls except among those who describe him as “very liberal.” Overall, 56 percent of seniors responded by saying Biden was liberal or very liberal, 22 percent found him to be moderate, eight percent said he was conservative, and 14 percent said they didn’t know where his ideology sits.
Trump has been trying to salvage his 2016 margins with seniors, but it hasn’t gone according to plan so far.
In late May, Trump held a seniors-focused event at the White House. But Trump’s riff about whether he himself should be taking insulin ended up stealing the show.
As if these headwinds weren’t troubling enough for the Trump campaign, an enduring dynamic from the 2018 midterms also poses a problem.
Hillary Clinton only won women voters by a 13 point margin over Trump in 2016, according to NBC’s exit poll.
With Biden also leading Trump by 10 points among independents in the NBC-WSJ poll, the question of where to even begin — much less how to close each gap — looms large over the Trump campaign.
10 things in tech you need to know today
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1. From Facebook to Apple, here’s how corporate America responded to Derek Chauvin’s guilty verdict. After the ex-cop was found guilty of murdering George Floyd, Big Tech’s CEOs posted on social media and sent internal memos to employees. This is what some of the top execs said.
2. Microsoft research shows back-to-back virtual meetings make you stressed, but there’s a cure. Researchers found that taking mini breaks can help your brain reset in between long stretches of video meetings. How breaks serve as the antidote to meeting fatigue.
3. A leaked memo shows how Amazon forces out employees each year. Amazon strives to get rid of about 6% of its employees every year – voluntarily or otherwise. An internal memo sheds light on one of the company’s strategies for pushing them out. Read the details here.
4. Some Whole Foods customers can now pay with a palm print. Amazon installed hand scanners in seven Seattle grocery stores that will allow shoppers to pay with their palm. Here’s how they work.
5. Suspected Chinese agents have been hacking US government agencies for months, a report said. The FireEye cybersecurity firm said Pulse Secure VPN has been compromised since June 2020, and that “defense, government, and financial organizations around the world” were affected. Here’s what you need to know.
6. Hackers say they stole Apple product blueprints – and are now demanding $50 million. A ransomware group says it stole Macbook schematics, and is demanding that Apple pay a ransom to get them back. Get the full rundown.
7. A top fintech analyst for Cathie Wood found Venmo is the “least competitive” crypto trading app. After comparing key features of Cash App, Venmo, and Coinbase, the analyst said Venmo – which just added crypto trading – is the least appealing app. Here’s why.
8. Tesla’s top lawyer has left the company for a 26-year-old billionaire’s self-driving startup. Alan Prescott left Elon Musk’s company to lead Luminar Technologies’ legal team. More on that here.
9. Health startup Kry is closing in on a funding round that will push its valuation to $2 billion. The Swedish startup, which facilitates video consultations for patients through its app and is one of Europe’s biggest telehealth providers, is set to raise between $240 million to $300 million from investors. A look at what else we know.
10. These are the five most revelatory findings about Texas’ antitrust fight against Google. The allegations delve into Google’s platforms for advertisers and publishers, as well as its secret “Project Bernanke” and “Jedi Blue” deal with Facebook. See the five most important takeaways.
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JinkoSolar Wins “Asia’s Best Employer” Award for Third Consecutive Year by Optimizing Talent Development
SHANGRAO, China, April 22, 2021 /PRNewswire/ — JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd (“JinkoSolar” or the “Company”) (NYSE: JKS), one of the largest and most innovative solar module manufacturers in the world, today announced that it has won the award for “Asia’s Best Employer” for the third consecutive year. The Company’s diversified talent training and development programs aims to promote a corporate culture that fosters innovation and leadership among teams.
Organized by HR Asia, an authoritative human resources magazine, the award for “Asia’s Best Corporate Employer” recognizes enterprises with outstanding performance in human resource policies, and is one of Asia’s most authoritative awards in the field of human resource management. Every company shortlisted for the award goes through an independent review panel composed of senior professionals, renowned scholars, journalists, and government representatives in Asia. To ensure the objectivity of the professional evaluation and analysis of the final results, evaluations were conducted based on the “Employee Appraisal Report” and “Enterprise and Employer Engagement Survey Report”.
JinkoSolar has continuously optimized its employment practices, in order to create a family-like working environment for all employees, and to cultivate and develop talent at different levels within the organization. JinkoSolar currently has a complete ecosystem of scientific, standardized and personnel management systems, and it has been recognized for promoting best practices and values in human resource management, enhancing corporate culture and fostering equality, accountability and integrity.
Mr. Xiande Li, Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer commented: “Talent is the cornerstone of an enterprise’s strategy to stay competitive and continuously innovate and JinkoSolar places great importance on developing its talent pool. We cultivate excellent working conditions and provide continuous learning through employee development platforms for professional training and advancement. We are a people-oriented company and will continue to invest in the future of our people.”
Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
SerEnergy to Launch Next Generation of Methanol Fuel Cells: SereneU
STOCKHOLM, April 22, 2021 /PRNewswire/ — A 4th generation of SerEnergy’s fuel cell units: SereneU will now be released. The new generation introduces many advantages, such as longer lifetime, less service and maintenances, and improved total cost of ownership. The product upgrade places SerEnergy fuel cells in a significant state-of the art position for volume market penetration – responding to an increased global demand for sustainable energy, working for the environment and for SerEnergy customers.
Methanol-based Fuel Cells: A unique Technology for Sustainable Energy Generation
Increasingly, enviromental and social sustainability are raising fundamental questions on how we are powerering applications. Cutting down CO2 and particle emmisions are key elements in the climate debate. SerEnergy methanol based systems are drastically cutting down emissions in power generation applications. As a stand-alone or in a hydrid configuration with direct solar and wind energy, SerEnergy’s methanol fuel cells units, can make us reach mutual global ambition of cutting down CO2 emissions. Methanol can be produced by renewable sources, is easy to store and handle and has become one of the largest commodities, with increasing establishment of worldwide plants in all continents.
Methanol fuel cell units by SerEnergy have the option to interconnect with multiple units resulting in power systems and solutions for larger power demands. In category of power supply, SerEnergy fuel cells is a reliable source of on-demand power generation for critical communication networks such as commercial telecom and security etc. Fuel cells by SerEnergy can deliver DC power directly, without power loss from additional converters, providing a highly efficient energy supply. Different type of battery charging algorithms are integrated in the power electronics so that it can be supported and configured for different battery types, or hybrid electrical systems. Another advantage of integrated electronics is a closer integration with the fuel cell system itself and control of this which provides some additional options for optimization of operation, reliability, maintenance and diagnostics/state-of-health monitoring. All in all, this makes handling easy and reduces fuel consumption on site. As a low maintenance power technology, the unit is equally ideal for critical backup power, temporary or continuous 24/7. It works both in off-grid applications and as back-up for in grid applications.
4th Generation: Serene Fuel Cells for Volume Market Penetration
Ever since 2006, SerEnergy has been working to lift each variable in its fuel cells and systems to benefice sustainable use cases. As the company now launches its 4th generation, the overall goal has been to lower total cost of ownership to customers.
The 4th generation of fuel cells to be released by SerEnergy, Serene, introduces improvements in terms of quality and a lifetime extension which in turn will minimize maintenance and leverage profitability to customers. Main parts of the fuel cell units are stacks and reformer and both components, developed and produced by SerEnergy, have been reinforced, causing the overall lifetime to be increased by more than 30%. Moreover, serene embeds a unit swap technology securing no or short downtime during power failures and with an extension of temperature windows of operation to -20 to 50C, Serene is fit for operation in most regions – outdoor as well as indoor.
Commercial Manager, Morten Thomsen, from SerEnergy is looking forward to introducing the market to this latest generation of methanol-based fuel cells: “we see markets responding positively to fuel cells within many application areas in recent years, particularly within telecommunications, lately a large-scale deployment by Smart Communications Inc., but also residential and construction industries respond with increased demands where we have established a number of partnerships lately. Our customers demand not only sustainable solutions but also reliable and smart solutions that are price competitive. No doubt, price is a critical factor to industries as they transit to green energies and with our new generation lowering total cost of ownership, we are one step closer to that breakeven bound to come, if not already here.”
As it is the case with renewables, the increased demands for clean power in itself has a positive impact on economies of scale meaning that SerEnergy can reduce prices its fuel cells as productions are scaled up. Moreover, the regulations on harmful emissions will ultimately have an impact on the industries and practice turning them towards investment in sustainable energies like methanol-based fuel cells by SerEnergy. No doubt, cost aspect is a major driver for power solutions today, but as sustainable targets and legislation get tightened, the transit to sustainable solutions will not exclusively be cost-driven.
Reaching a Significant Milestone with the Development of Serene G4
The 4th generation of Serene fuel cells has been in the development for a little more than two years and has involved all competences in the development team at SerEnergy including material physics to mechanics to electronics to software and special competences like flow simulation and safety. According to R&D Director from SerEnergy, Morten Hougaard Sørensen, product development is an effort never compromising on quality, on the contrary: “Quality assurance is perhaps the most challenging exercise for new technologies – many companies in the fuel cell business have failed. At SerEnergy, we extensively test, validate and qualify our components, assembly processes, and products. And throughout a decade now including four product generations, we have improved the design and demonstrated its quality and reliability both in our local test center, at our partners’ and at customers’ sites. We qualify our fuel cells and systems through a broad range of tests according to international standards, covering among others: durability tests, environmental testing, reliability and stress testing plus functional safety tests. And constantly, we manage to push the boundaries of our fuel cell technologies in response to customer requirements”.
Fact box: About fuel cells
A fuel cell is a device that generates electricity through an electrochemical reaction, not combustion. In a fuel cell, hydrogen and oxygen are combined to generate electricity, heat, and water. Fuel cells are used today in a range of applications, from providing power to homes and businesses, keeping critical facilities like hospitals, grocery stores, and critical communications up and running, and moving a variety of vehicles and last but not least for critical –, backup –, auxiliary – and primary power. Hybrid solutions merging wind- or solar energy sources with fuel cells represent to ultimate green and sustainable solution.
The fuel cell is a clean, efficient, reliable, and low noise source of power. Fuel cells do not need to be periodically recharged like batteries, but instead continue to produce electricity as long as a fuel source is provided. Unlike combustion-based power generation, stationary fuel cells provide virtually emission-free power. They do not produce particulate pollutants or unburned hydrocarbons. They emit less carbon dioxide than other, less efficient technologies, and when using fuel generated from renewable sources such as biomass, fuel cells are completely carbon neutral.
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SerEnergy to Launch Next Generation of Methanol Fuel Cells: Serene U
Economies of scale breakeven
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FINMA Begins Enforcement Proceedings Against Credit Suisse
(RTTNews) – Credit Suisse (CS) said the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA has opened enforcement proceedings against the company after the bank suffered significant losses in connection with a US hedge fund, Archegos. Also, FINMA opened proceedings against Credit Suisse in the context of the “Greensill” case and the corresponding supply chain finance funds.
Credit Suisse stated that, as a result of the cases, FINMA has ordered various short-term measures to be put in place. These include organisational and risk-reducing measures and capital surcharges as well as reductions in or suspensions of variable remuneration components.
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