Ecommerce
When will California’s retail foot traffic return to normal?
If current trends hold: September 19, 2020
Looking only at the data for the first two months of 2020, you might have been tempted to declare — and not without good reason — that it was shaping up to be a banner year for brick-and-mortar retailers. In the last week of February, national in-store traffic was up 3.5% compared to the previous year. California’s walk-in numbers were just a hair below the 2019 figures during that same period, hovering in the 97%-99% range. The U.S. had experienced 23 consecutive quarters of GDP growth, one of the longest such periods in modern history. It felt to many like there was nothing that could cool down America’s red-hot economy.
And then, beginning in early March, the bottom fell out. As the novel coronavirus outbreak proliferated across the country and around the world (and as state and local governments wrestled with how to control it), foot traffic dropped precipitously across the board. By the end of the month, nationwide retail walk-ins were at a paltry 27.1% of the previous year’s figures. California didn’t fare much better, with foot traffic falling to 30.3% at month’s end. Furthermore, both California and the U.S. as a whole hit foot traffic low points in mid-April, with walk-ins at a mere 26.1% and 25.2%, respectively.
One particularly interesting insight we’ve gleaned from our data is that this steep decline in retail foot traffic began well before most states had issued shelter-in-place orders. For context, only eight states had implemented quarantine orders by March 23, and yet nationwide walk-ins had already dropped by 59.7% from the level they were just two weeks prior. California experienced a nearly identical drop of 58.8% in that same span.
This early decline was likely due (at least in part) to the fact that some of the earliest states to issue shelter-in-place orders were also among the most populous. In addition to California (#1 in terms of population), New York (#4), Illinois (#6) and Ohio (#7) were also among the first eight states to close down. However, that explanation does not tell the full story. Consumer concerns about sanitation and safety almost certainly played a role as well.
So what does all this information tell us? When can we expect consumer foot traffic to get back to a level we could consider normal in California?
September 19. Let’s dig into the data.
Elaine Brubacher, a 79-year-old retiree living in Southern California, has explicitly altered her shopping habits during the pandemic. Prior to the spread of COVID-19, she would generally go shopping twice a week. Now, she says simply, “I don’t go out.” Brubacher has limited her shopping trips to once every ten days, and even then, only for the necessities. “I’m not doing any shopping other than what is absolutely necessary — the grocery store or the pharmacy. I’m not comfortable with “general shopping.”
Ecommerce
Black Friday on track for $8.9B+ in online sales as shoppers stay away from brick-and-mortar stores
Black Friday — the day that launched 1,000 other shopping holidays — may have lost its place as the “start” of the Christmas shopping season by now (it gets bigger and earlier with each passing year). But the day after Thanksgiving still pulls in a crowd of buyers looking for a bargain and remains a major bellwether for tracking how sales will progress in what is the most important period for the retail and commerce sector.
Because of the Covid-19 pandemic, this year was definitely slimmer when it came to actual, in-person crowds — kind of a refreshing break from those times when you feel like it’s the worst of humanity when people are breaking out into fights over TVs at a local Walmart — but online it seems that sales did not disappoint.
Figures from Adobe, which is following online sales in real-time at 80 of the top 100 retailers in the U.S., covering some 100 million SKUs, said that we are “on track” for a new sales record for the day, with between $8.9 billion and $9.6 billion expected in sales online for Black Friday, a jump of 20%-29% on last year.
For some context, in 2019, Adobe tracked $7.4 billion in online sales, and yesterday it said that shoppers spent $5.1 billion on Thanksgiving, with more than $3 billion spent online each day in the week leading up to Thursday.
Adobe was still tallying the final numbers for the day as of this morning European time, so we’ll update this post with the final numbers as and when we get them.
Its analysts say that the evening tends to be big for online shopping — which makes sense since people might have been either going out in person during the day, or just doing something else on a day off.
Not all are in agreement that night time is the right time, however. Figures from Shopify — which analyses activity from the 1 million-plus merchants that use its e-commerce platform — said that the peak shopping hour on its platform was actually 9am Eastern, when there were as many as $3 million in sales per minute. The average cart size for US shoppers was $95.60, it added.
Interestingly, Shopify’s per-minute sales number underscores how the long tail of merchants are still quite a ways behind the very biggest: Adobe noted that its figures, across the sites that it tracks (which have at least $1 billion in annual sales) tally to $6.2 million spent per minute on Black Friday.
In either case, smartphones continue to be a major driver of how sales get made. Adobe said that as of 4pm Eastern some 41.5% of all sales were on handsets, a bit lower than the day before but 7% higher than in 2019. And just as was the case yesterday, it seems that smaller retailers are attracting more shoppers on mobile: Shopify said that some 70% of its sales are being made via smartphones.
We’ll see how all of that plays out later today also with the initial figures from “Small Business Saturday”, which is the latest of the shopping designations added to the holiday weekend, this one trying to hone focus more squarely away from major chains and big box merchants.
One big takeaway from the bigger weekend figures will be that offering items — electronics, tech, toys and sports goods being the most popular categories — at the right price will help retailers continue to bring in sales, in what has proven to be an especially strong year for online shopping after many have opted to stay away from crowded places due to the pandemic, but also a critical year for retailers because of the drag that the pandemic has had on the wider economy.
Cyber Monday is likely to continue to be the biggest of them all, expected to bring in between $11.2 billion and $13 billion in e-commerce transactions, up 19%-38% year-on-year.
Perhaps because of the shift to more online shopping, and the concern over flagging sales, it’s interesting that “holiday season” has also been extended and now comes earlier. Adobe said a survey of consumers found that 41% said they would start shopping earlier this year than previous years due to much earlier discounts. Recall too that Amazon’s Prime Day was delayed to start in October this year, an ‘event’ that many treated as a moment to get a jump start on holiday shopping.
“Black Friday is headed for record-breaking levels as consumers flock online to shop for both holiday gifts and necessities,” said Taylor Schreiner, director, Adobe Digital Insights. “Concurrently, it’s also worth noting that this year, we’re seeing strong online sales momentum across not only the major shopping days like Thanksgiving weekend, but throughout the holiday season as consumers spread out their shopping across several weeks in reaction to continued, heavy discounting from retailers.”
Source: https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/28/black-friday-online-sales-numbers/
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Bring color to life.
ZHENGZOU, China (PRWEB) November 28, 2020
Incolorwig, a new online store launched, offers colorful human hair wigs and pre-colored virgin human hair extension. Incolorwig targets women who wants to change their hairstyle easily with high-quality hair wigs.
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Incolorwig Online Hair Store
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After Incolorwig was established this year, it has become a favor brand of many black women. “Wigs bring more than just changes in their hairstyles, but also a pursuit of beauty and self-expression,” the founder of Incolorwig said, “What human hair wigs can do is that free to control one’s own hairstyle and color, at least.”
With the mission of bring color to life, Incolorwig encourage women to pursue beauty and help them to find their own style. The wigs have been sold to the USA, Europe and Africa with a good reputation and feedback. According to a customer’s feedback: ”This is once of the best wigs I have ever gotten from Incolorwig, great seller communication and fast delivery. The wig is as described. I highly recommend this.”
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“Retail’s focus on Black November seems to be paying off, but it remains to be seen if early sales will diminish retail’s performance over Black Friday weekend,” said Marshal Cohen, NPD’s chief industry advisor, retail.
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (PRWEB) November 26, 2020
Holiday dollar sales* for the season to date grew +13% compared to the same 6 weeks last year, with video games, small appliances, technology, toys, office supplies, and books leading the way, according to The NPD Group’s latest retail sales reporting.1 This healthy start to the season is important as retail continues to be challenged by COVID-19 case surges that will have additional implications for the way consumers shop.
- Early in the season, 80% of holiday shoppers told NPD they planned to shop online this season, and less than half (42%) of all holiday shopping would be done in stores.2
- The majority of general merchandise industries tracked by NPD are seeing e-commerce growth, now representing 30% or more of total dollar sales – more than half in technology and small appliances.3
“Retail’s focus on Black November seems to be paying off, but it remains to be seen if early sales will diminish retail’s performance over Black Friday weekend,” said Marshal Cohen, NPD’s chief industry advisor, retail. “While we are heading into retail’s big holiday weekend with some nice momentum, there are still several weeks ahead with many industries still looking to make up for the year’s losses. This may still prove to be a very challenging holiday season at retail, which means the focus could shift from sales volume to profit margin for those industries and retailers that are lagging.”
Watch to get the latest insights from NPD’s chief industry advisor: A Minute with Marshal Cohen – Consumers Overcome Distractions
Black Friday was the top shopping day of 20194 – Here are some insights into this year’s Black Friday shopper:
- Those who were planning to start shopping on either Thanksgiving Day or Black Friday are more likely to buy for themselves as part of their retail therapy.2
- They are likely still the deal-hunters. Holiday shoppers who planned to start shopping on Black Friday intend to spend an average of $643, less than early shoppers, and other traditional peak period shoppers.2
Average planned holiday spending for this year, based on when holiday shoppers planned to begin shopping.
- Before Thanksgiving: $876
- Thanksgiving/Black Friday/Black Friday Weekend/Cyber Monday: $680
- December: $448
The hottest categories so far this holiday shopping season continue to be led by technology products. But as holiday promotions increased, there was movement among the growth drivers in the first two weeks of November.
Top 15 YOY Growth Categories*
6 weeks ending November 14, 2020
1- LCD TVs
2- PCs
3- Video Games Hardware
4- Tablets & e-readers
5- Tissue & Dispensers
6- Hand Held Specialty Cleaning Appliances
7- Monitors
8- Stereo Headphones
9- Paper Towels, Napkins & Dispensers
10- VR/AR Hardware & Accessories
11- Building Sets
12- Sleepwear
13- Hand Cleaners
14- Fryers
15- Fashion Dolls/Accessories & Role Play
Will this list continue to change as the holiday shopping season progresses? Stay tuned for an update during the second week of December!
For more information, or to speak with Marshal Cohen, contact Janine Marshall at janine.marshall@npd.com, and check NPD’s special holiday coverage and follow #NPDHoliday on Twitter to see the latest insights across retail.
1Source: The NPD Group/Retail Tracking Service, apparel, athletic footwear, beauty, Blu-ray/DVD, office supplies, small appliances, technology, toys, video games.
2Source: The NPD Group/Annual Holiday Study
3Source: The NPD Group/ U.S. Consumer Tracking Service (Athletic Footwear, Apparel, Accessories, Toys, Video Games), Retail Tracking Service (Office Supplies, Beauty), Checkout (Housewares, Small Appliances, Technology – YTD September 2020
4Source: The NPD Group/Checkout
*Seasonal Category Tracking is based on a subset of industries available weekly at a category level.
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