Ecommerce
When will California’s retail foot traffic return to normal?
If current trends hold: September 19, 2020
Looking only at the data for the first two months of 2020, you might have been tempted to declare — and not without good reason — that it was shaping up to be a banner year for brick-and-mortar retailers. In the last week of February, national in-store traffic was up 3.5% compared to the previous year. California’s walk-in numbers were just a hair below the 2019 figures during that same period, hovering in the 97%-99% range. The U.S. had experienced 23 consecutive quarters of GDP growth, one of the longest such periods in modern history. It felt to many like there was nothing that could cool down America’s red-hot economy.
And then, beginning in early March, the bottom fell out. As the novel coronavirus outbreak proliferated across the country and around the world (and as state and local governments wrestled with how to control it), foot traffic dropped precipitously across the board. By the end of the month, nationwide retail walk-ins were at a paltry 27.1% of the previous year’s figures. California didn’t fare much better, with foot traffic falling to 30.3% at month’s end. Furthermore, both California and the U.S. as a whole hit foot traffic low points in mid-April, with walk-ins at a mere 26.1% and 25.2%, respectively.
One particularly interesting insight we’ve gleaned from our data is that this steep decline in retail foot traffic began well before most states had issued shelter-in-place orders. For context, only eight states had implemented quarantine orders by March 23, and yet nationwide walk-ins had already dropped by 59.7% from the level they were just two weeks prior. California experienced a nearly identical drop of 58.8% in that same span.
This early decline was likely due (at least in part) to the fact that some of the earliest states to issue shelter-in-place orders were also among the most populous. In addition to California (#1 in terms of population), New York (#4), Illinois (#6) and Ohio (#7) were also among the first eight states to close down. However, that explanation does not tell the full story. Consumer concerns about sanitation and safety almost certainly played a role as well.
So what does all this information tell us? When can we expect consumer foot traffic to get back to a level we could consider normal in California?
September 19. Let’s dig into the data.
Elaine Brubacher, a 79-year-old retiree living in Southern California, has explicitly altered her shopping habits during the pandemic. Prior to the spread of COVID-19, she would generally go shopping twice a week. Now, she says simply, “I don’t go out.” Brubacher has limited her shopping trips to once every ten days, and even then, only for the necessities. “I’m not doing any shopping other than what is absolutely necessary — the grocery store or the pharmacy. I’m not comfortable with “general shopping.”
Investors appear excited to buy shares in impending public companies Oscar Health and Coupang. TechCrunch covered both extensively during their ramp toward the public markets, and more recently regarding their IPO march. And now, with a combined valuation well above $50 billion, both public offerings should make a splash.
And in good news for their respective investors, recent pricing points to an IPO market that remains enthusiastic about new listings, despite some recent chop among public technology equities.
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The valuation news from Coupang and Oscar Health bodes well for other impending offerings, including a host of SPAC-led flotations and the coming direct-listing of cryptocurrency giant Coinbase.
This morning, let’s collect pricing news on both Coupang and Oscar Health, eat some modest crow in the case of the latter and prep ourselves for the next two unicorn public offerings.
These companies will soon convert tens of billions of dollars of illiquid private shares into public currency. As such, their offerings may reveal investors’ sentiments regarding e-commerce and insurance companies backed by venture capital.
Oscar Health and Coupang’s IPO pricing
As TechCrunch reported this morning, South Korean e-commerce player Coupang could be worth as much as $51 billion in its IPO if its first debut price range of $27 to $30 per share holds up; the price range matches earlier expectations for the company, which recorded revenues of $11.97 billion in 2020, up more than 90 percent from its year-ago results.
Oscar Health’s new IPO price range is even more interesting than Coupang’s first. The insurance startup’s first IPO pricing interval of $32 to $34 per share valued the company at a midpoint, full-diluted price of around $7.7 billion. Its range is now $36 to $38 per share, more than modestly higher than its prior target price range.
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Source: https://techcrunch.com/2021/03/02/oscar-health-raises-ipo-price-as-coupang-releases-bullish-debut-valuation/
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