- MON: Chinese Retail Sales (Apr).
- Sal: EZ Flash GDP and Employment (Q1); US
Retail Sales (Apr); UK Jobs Report (Mar). - EVLENMEK: Japanese GDP (Q1); EZ Final CPI (Apr);
Canadian CPI (Apr); UK Inflation (Apr). - Per: ECB Minutes; SARB Announcement;
Australian Jobs Report (Apr); US Philly Fed (May); New Zealand Trade
Balance (Apr). - Cum: PBoC LPR; Japanese CPI (Apr); Canadian
Retail Sales (Mar); EZ Consumer Confidence (May).
NOT: Önizlemeler gün sırasına göre listelenmiştir.
China Retail Sales/Industrial
Production (Mon):
Lockdown effects of China’s Zero-COVID
policy will be felt within this release. Retail Sales are seen contracting 6.0%
Y/Y vs the March contraction of 3.5%. “The focus will be on the degree of
contraction in the retail sales figures, as well as the corresponding extent of
growth in infrastructure investment to cushion the economy.” ING says. The data
is backwards looking but will shine a light on the effects of Beijing and
Shanghai’s latest outbreak. That being said, recent rhetoric out of China
suggested the COVID situation is improving, whilst other reports also noted
that China aims to implement existing policies to support the economy in H1.
Focus from a China-point of view will then turn to the Chinese Loan Prime Rates
(LPR) settings on Friday the 20th May.
EU Foreign Ministers Meeting (Mon):
EU Foreign Ministers are set to meet on
May 16th with a focus on the Russian oil embargo impasse. For context, as part
of the sixth sanctions package against Russia, European Commission President
von der Leyen on May 4th proposed a gradual ban on Russian oil imports
alongside oil products by year-end, with the ban aimed at pipeline and seaborne
crude and refined products. The proposal received pushback from Hungary,
Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Greece amid their high reliance on Russian
oil imports – with Hungary the most outspoken against the proposal. The
European Commission initially proposed an extension of the exemption from the
ban on Russian energy to Hungary and Slovakia until the end of 2024, according
to an EU diplomat. The concerns from Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic
arise mainly from the fact they are all linked to Russia’s Soviet-era Druzhba
pipeline. Hungary wanted a five-year extension and suggested it will not
support proposals that undermine its energy security. The embargo as it stands
requires the support of all 27 member states to be approved, Hungary said it will
veto the EU’s proposal to ban imports of Russian oil. Sources via Politico (and
Bloomberg) suggested that “One idea circulating would see other elements of the
[Russian sanctions] package move ahead… But the complete ban on all imports of
Russian crude and refined fuels could be put aside for now, while work
continues on a compromise deal that Hungary can accept. ” Weekend headlines
will be eyed for any new proposals/shift in sentiment.
ABD Perakende Satışları (Sal):
US retail sales are seen rising 0.7%
M/M in April, matching the prior month’s rise and the third straight month of
gains. April saw a rebound in unit vehicle sales, which Credit Suisse says
should contribute to the headline strongly; gas prices meanwhile declined,
unwinding some of the sharp upside seen in reaction to the Ukraine-Russia war,
and will likely result in lower nominal gas spending, the bank says. The
ex-autos measure is seen rising +0.3% M/M, cooling from the pace of +1.4% M/M
in March. In terms of current retail spending trends, CS says “a final batch of
lump sum payments associated with the expanded Child Tax Credit is being
distributed, and tax refunds totalled around USD 25bln higher than last year,
keeping spending well supported in the short term,” adding that “income growth
remains strong amid labour market tightness.” That said, the bank argues that
the shift from spending on goods and onto services will likely continue, and
that may act as a headwind to real goods retail sales. “Elevated inflation has
eaten away at purchasing power and global supply disruptions will likely keep
goods prices elevated,” the bank says, “nominal retail sales are strong but
real goods spending has weakened sharply and we continue to expect a decline
through the year.”
Birleşik Krallık İş Raporu (Salı):
The unemployment rate in the 3-month
period to March is expected to hold steady at 3.8% with the employment change
metric forecast at 50k vs. prev. 10k. On the earnings front, headline average
earnings 3M/YY for March are expected to remain at 5.4% with the ex-bonus metric
also set to come in unchanged from the prior at 4.0%. Ahead of the release,
Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests that although the S&P Global/CIPS
composite PMI employment balance rose to a seven-month high in February and the
Bank of England’s agents’ scores of employment intentions pointed to
year-over-year growth of about 2% in Q1, the consultancy holds a less
optimistic view of the labour market. Pantheon notes that actual employment
growth has been much weaker than suggested by these surveys over the past six
months. Furthermore, “the PAYE measure of payroll employee numbers rose by just
0.1% month-to-month in March, below the 0.3% average increase of the previous
six months”. On the wages front, Pantheon looks for just a modest increase in
March’s earnings metrics compared to February, adding that given declining
consumer confidence and the absence of a wage-price spiral, the BoE could be
minded to soon pause its tightening cycle.
Japonya GSYH (Çar):
Q1 GDP is expected to contract in both
Y/Y and M/M terms, with the former seen at -1.8% (prev. +4.6%) and the latter
at -0.4% (prev. +1.1%). “We expect 1Q22 Japanese GDP to have contracted by 0.6%
from the previous quarter (on a seasonally adjusted basis) as both domestic
demand and exports were dampened.” Analysts at ING say. The release comes as
the BoJ maintains a dovish stance in the face of rising inflation and recession
fears. The BoJ April Summary of Opinions suggested BoJ must continue to support
the economy with powerful monetary easing and it would be inappropriate to
change monetary policy when the Ukraine crisis adds to existing downside risks
for Japan’s economy.
İngiltere Enflasyonu (Çar):
Headline Y/Y CPI for April is expected
to rise to 9.1% from 7.0% with the core metric seen picking up to 6.3% Y/Y from
5.7%, according to Investec. The March report saw price pressures driven by a
near 10% pick-up in fuel prices relative to February as well as a material jump
in a broad-range of categories. This time around, the impact of the 54%
increase in OFGEM’s price cap is likely to be the main focus of the release,
which Investec suggests could add 1.6ppts between March and April. Beyond the
OFGEM price cap, Investec suggests that price pressures are expected to have
increased in a number of other areas such as VAT on hospitality, social rents
and transport fuel. Such an outturn will likely keep the pressure on the MPC to
continue with its rate hiking cycle with BoE’s Ramsden this week overlooking
soft GDP metrics for March by stating that more rate hikes are required.
Looking beyond the upcoming release, the May MPR revealed that the MPC expects
CPI “to rise further over the remainder of the year, to just over 9% in 2022 Q2
and averaging slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4”. As it stands, market
pricing looks for an additional four 25bps rate hikes by year-end. Many desks
remain of the view that such pricing remains too aggressive with analysts at
ING expecting the MPC to hit pause on hikes after hiking a few more times in
önümüzdeki aylar.
ECB Tutanakları (Per):
As expected, the ECB refrained from
tweaking its monetary policy settings with rates left unchanged and the
parameters of its bond-buying operations maintained. As such, the ECB stated it
will lower purchases under APP to EUR 30bln from EUR 40bln in May and then to
EUR 20bln in June before concluding in Q3. The initial market reaction to the
statement was a dovish one with a lack of specificity on when in Q3 purchases
will conclude, serving as a disappointment to some who had been hoping for
greater clarity. At the accompanying press conference, introductory remarks
from Lagarde stated that several factors point to low growth ahead, new
pandemic measures in Asia are contributing to supply chain issues and inflation
pressures have intensified across many sectors. On policy measures, Lagarde
refrained from providing any firmer pointers on when in Q3 purchases under APP
will conclude. However, since the meeting, consensus has coalesced around the
view that asset purchases will be concluded on July 1st. Lagarde also
reiterated her line from the previous press conference that the “some
time” linkage between the end of APP and start of rate hikes could mean
“weeks” or “several months”. In the wake of the meeting,
Reuters ECB sources suggested that policymakers saw a July hike as still
possible, but they were unanimous in their support for April’s decision.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg sources suggested there was a growing consensus for a 25bp
rate hike in Q3. Note, on May 11th, Lagarde placed particular emphasis on the “weeks”
aspect of this guidance with other officials at the Bank endorsing a move on
rates in July. Finally, during her remarks, Lagarde didn’t add anything to the
reports ahead of the meeting which suggested that the Bank was looking at
crafting a crisis tool if bond yields were to jump.
SARB Preview (Thu):
The South African Reserve Bank is
likely to lift rates by a 50bps increment, taking its Repo Rate to 4.75%, as it
looks to manage the impact of higher inflation and potential second round
effects. Elize Kruger, an independent South African economist cited by Reuters,
said “workers will demand higher wages to compensate for higher living costs,
also adding to the production costs in the economy and in this process prices
in most of the CPI basket will show increases,” adding that “the SARB would be
very uncomfortable if second round effects start to appear in a meaningful
way.” A 50bps increment move has not been made by the SARB in over six years,
and some analysts still expect a smaller 25bps, but they are in the minority.
According to a Reuters poll, since the last meeting, analysts have been
hawkishly revising their expectations towards the larger move. The latest
survey, however, sees the central bank moving back to 25bps hikes per quarter
until rates are lifted to 6.00% in Q3 next year.
Avustralya İş Raporu (Per):
Headline employment change is expected
to show an addition of 40k jobs in April vs 17.9k jobs added in March (marking
the fifth month of consecutive job additions), with the unemployment rate seen
ticking lower to 3.9% from 4.0%. Analysts at Westpac see a lower number of job
additions: “We have revised our forecast from +32k to +20k to acknowledge a
softer momentum in employment while still allowing for a softer than expected
recovery in hours worked.” The bank shares the view of a fall in the
unemployment rate to 3.9%. The data however is unlikely to change the course of
the RBA’s monetary policy given the shift in focus to inflation from jobs.
New Zealand Trade Balance (Thu):
There are currently no market
expectations for the release. Westpac however expects the M/M trade balance
deficit to contract to NZD 200mln from NZD 392mln deficit in March. The desk
expects dairy price strength to run up against the oil price surge. Though, the
release is unlikely to change the course of the RBNZ’s policy, with a 100%
chance of a 25bps OCR hike currently baked into the markets.
PBoC LPR (Fri):
PBoC will decide on its Loan Prime
Rates with the central bank likely to keep the 1-Year Loan Prime Rate at 3.70% and
the 5-Year Loan Prime Rate at 4.60%. As a reminder, the PBoC defied
expectations for a 5bps reduction last month as it opted to keep its benchmark
lending rates unchanged, while the 25bps RRR cut it announced in April was
viewed as conservative as this was smaller that what many anticipated and less
than last couple of 50bps reductions. This suggests the central bank is staying
true to its prudent approach to monetary policy and its recent support pledges
have been more of a targeted nature including focusing on support for small
firms and sectors hit by COVID, as well as agricultural production and energy,
while it also announced to launch a CNY 100bln lending facility to support
financing of transport and logistics sectors. The recent weakening of the yuan
is another factor that would likely influence the PBoC to hold off on immediate
rate cuts as the central bank would want to avoid exacerbating the pressure on
the currency and it even reduced the RRR on FX deposits by 100bps effective May
15th which is seen as a move aimed at slowing the yuan’s depreciation.
Conversely, future rate cuts cannot be ruled out given the slowing of the
economy amid lockdown and virus-related restrictions affecting Shanghai and
Beijing as China sticks to a zero-Covid policy, which has already resulted in
sharper than expected contractions to Chinese PMI data and a significant
slowdown in Chinese Exports for April.
Japon TÜFE (Cuma):
National Core CPI is expected to rise
to 2.1% from 0.8% in March – above the BoJ’s inflation target and marking the
highest reading since 2015. “Last year’s one-off cuts in mobile phone rates
create an environment for low base effects to take hold. When taken together
with a weaker yen and rising energy prices, this should translate to higher
price pressures overall.”, analysts at ING said. In terms of follow-through to
monetary policy, the BoJ has largely passed off inflation as temporary and has
repeatedly reaffirmed its dovish tone. BoJ Governor Kuroda, on 13th May, said
the expected rise in inflation is driven mostly by energy costs and is lacking
sustainability, and added they are not seeing signs of a sharp rise in medium
and long-term inflation expectations in Japan. Kuroda suggested Japan’s
inflation situation is completely different from the US and Europe and
reiterated it is appropriate to maintain BoJ’s current dovish forward guidance
faiz oranları hakkında.
