Loup Ventures believes Tesla’s Model Y ramp could drive an ~80% delivery growth for the company in 2021. Tesla’s Q1 Update Letter stated the company had plans to grow its manufacturing capacity. Over a multi-year horizon, Tesla expects to achieve a 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries.

Tesla noted that its growth might be faster in some years versus others. Tesla expects to grow significantly in 2021. Loup Ventures observed that Tesla’s delivery growth has increased from 23% in December 2019 to 109% in March 2021.

Loup Ventures projects that Tesla’s Model Y production ramp in Shanghai, plus later this year with Giga Berlin and Gigafactory Texas will result in an 80% boost in the EV automaker’s delivery growth.

Loup Ventures’ prediction aligns with Tesla’s goals for the Model Y. During the latest earnings call, Elon Musk remarked that Tesla believes the Model Y could become the best-selling car in any category worldwide by 2022 or 2023. He pointed out that the Tesla Model 3 became the best-selling luxury sedan just three and a half years into production.

Tesla’s delivery growth must significantly increase by the end of 2021 to achieve its goals for the Model Y. In its Q1 Update Letter, Tesla noted that substantial growth would depend on the company’s equipment capacity, operational efficiency, capacity, and stability of the supply chain.

There are still some factors out of Tesla’s control, or that might challenge the company in 2021. For example, Musk talked about supply chain challenges Tesla experienced in the first quarter, which affected its timeline for Model S Plaid deliveries.

Loup Ventures seems aware of the hurdles Tesla still has to face this year alone but is still optimistic about the company’s future.

“We maintain the view that this reality will likely create near-term volatility in shares of Tesla. In the end, we continue to believe these segments will be the foundation of the future of transportation and energy consumption and will increase Tesla’s market cap over the long run,” wrote Loup Ventures.

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