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Veckomarknadsuppdatering 16 augusti 2022

Datum:

Long term bullish momentum on the Dollar remains as the DXY adds to its gains from last week, en route to retest August highs.

Dollar

The greenback came out of the gate this week adding to the gains accumulated on Friday. This exuberance is mainly driven by fresh recession concerns brought about by weaker than expected Chinese data, which caused an increase in the flow of investors towards the safe-haven currency. Further momentum was added by hawkish comments made from FED policymakers around early signals that inflation could have potentially peaked.

Teknisk analys (H4)

In terms of market structure, price has been moving correctively since 14 July 2022 in relation to the overall price action in the uptrend. This entire corrective structure is forming a bullish continuation pattern (falling wedge.) The probability is that this pattern will yield an impulsive wave upon completion. .

What could happen henceforth in the short term is a smaller correction before bulls take control of price and challenge the monthly high around the 106.51 area, and if broken impulsively, could open the gate for price to challenge the peak formation around the 109.00 området.

Euro

A significant recovery of the European currency still seems further down the road according to market analysts, amid a week devoid of any considerable economic data that could support a sustained bullish scenario. Some of this pressure can be attributed to renewed recession fears emanating from the Chinese economy which put a damper on the optimism gained last week in regard to the “inflation-recovery”.

Teknisk analys (H4)

In terms of market structure, price has been moving correctively since 14 July 2022 in relation to the overall price action in the downtrend. This entire corrective structure is forming a bearish continuation pattern (stigande kil) The probability is that this pattern will yield an impulsive wave upon completion.

What could happen henceforth in the short term is a smaller correction before bears take control of price and challenge the monthly low around the 1.0129 area, and if broken impulsively, could open the gate for price to challenge the peak formation around the paritet området.

Pund

Sterling began the week pressured by lower-than-expected employment data, erasing all the gains made last week on the back of optimism around inflation beginning to ease. Adding to that are political concerns around the next British Prime Minister, with the current candidates failing to inspire amid energy concerns in the country, as well as Brexit woes in the form of disappointing progress with the Northern Ireland deal.

Teknisk analys (H4)

In terms of market structure, current price action moved correctively towards the 1.2280 area in the form of an ascending channel, acting as a potential bearish continuation of the overall larger trend. Henceforth, the probabilities of this pattern since the break of the lower trendline in the channel, point towards the bears taking control of price to break below last week’s low around the 1.2020 area. An impulsive break below the above-mentioned area could open the gate for the bears to challenge the peak formation around the 1.1791 området.

Gold

Gold heads into the new week on the back foot ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. Any significant upside move is unlikely until Wednesday because of the sheer significance of the clues hidden within the minutes which will give investors a clearer picture of how the FED will act in September regarding a 50bp rate hike vs the prospect of a 75bp hike.

Teknisk analys (H4)

När det gäller marknadsstrukturen har priset rört sig korrekt sedan omkring 20th juli 2022 från $1,680 mot $1,805 område i form av ett baisseartat fortsättningsmönster (stigande kil). If price breaks impulsively below the significant $1,770 area, then we could see bears take control of price to challenge the low at the $1,680 området.

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Ofentse Waisi

Marknadsanalytiker

Varning: Detta material tillhandahålls som en allmän marknadsföringskommunikation endast i informationssyfte och utgör inte en oberoende investeringsundersökning. Ingenting i detta meddelande innehåller, eller bör betraktas som innehållande, en investeringsrådgivning eller en investeringsrekommendation eller en uppmaning i syfte att köpa eller sälja något finansiellt instrument. All information som tillhandahålls samlas in från ansedda källor och all information som innehåller en indikation på tidigare resultat är ingen garanti eller tillförlitlig indikator för framtida resultat. Användare erkänner att varje investering i levererade produkter kännetecknas av en viss grad av osäkerhet och att alla sådana investeringar innebär en hög risknivå som användarna är ensamma ansvariga för. Vi tar inget ansvar för förluster till följd av investeringar gjorda baserat på informationen i detta meddelande. Denna kommunikation får inte reproduceras eller distribueras vidare utan vårt föregående skriftliga tillstånd.

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