Bitcoin’s (BTC) succession of sharp corrections from its all-time high at $64,900 has turned investor sentiment negative, at least for the short-term. While some analysts believe the bottom may have been hit, others are warning of a further fall due to the “Death Cross” pattern that, at the time of writing, is on the verge of completion.
For new traders, the name death cross itself brings a lot of negativity and a feeling of impending doom. This sentiment can trigger selling panics, especially if the market has already been going through a bear phase prior to the pattern being spotted.
However, is a death cross something to be feared or is it a crystal ball that gives traders insight on when a plunge is imminent?
Let’s find out with the help of a few examples.
What is a death cross and how accurate is it?
The death cross forms when a faster period moving average, usually the 50-day simple moving average, crosses below the longer-term moving average, generally the 200-day SMA.
The crossover is bearish as it shows that the uptrend has reversed direction. Large institutional investors generally do not buy in a falling market until a bottom is confirmed. Due to this, buying dries up and investors holding positions rush to the exit due to panic, exacerbating the decline.
Before looking at a few death cross examples in the crypto markets, let’s see how the pattern has affected the S&P 500 index between 1929 to 2019. According to Dorsey, Wright & Associates, LLC, the average fall after the formation of the death cross is 12.57% and the median fall is much lesser at 7.75%.
However, if only the post-1950 period is considered, the average fall is less than 10.37% and the median is at 5.38%.
While those figures are not startling, especially for volatility-accustomed crypto traders, the bearish convergence of these two moving averages should not be taken lightly.
History shows that the death cross has resulted in a few instances of massive declines in the U.S. stock market indices.
After the death cross on June 19, 1930, the S&P 500 plummeted 78.84% before bottoming out on Sep. 15, 1932. The next terrible death cross came with a 53.44% correction that occurred from Dec. 19, 2007, to June 17, 2009.
This shows how in select instances, the death cross has been able to predict a sharp correction. However, two sharp declines of over 50% in a 90-year history suggests the pattern is not reliable enough to instil instant fear in traders.
Recent Bitcoin death crosses
As cryptocurrencies are still a nascent market, the available data is limited. Let’s review a few instances of the death cross and how it has affected Bitcoin.
The most recent death cross occurred on March 26, 2020, when the BTC/USD pair closed at $6,758.18. However, this death cross turned out to be an excellent contrarian buy signal as the pair had already formed a bottom2 weeks back at $3,858 on March 13.
Before that, the pair had formed a death cross on Oct. 26, 2019, when the price closed at $9,259.78. By then, the pair had already corrected 33% from the high at $13,868.44 made on June 26, 2019.
After the cross, the pair bottomed out at $6,430 on Dec. 18, 2019, suffering a further 30% fall. From the high of $13,868.44 to the low at $6,430, the total decline was roughly 53%.
In another scenario, Bitcoin’s roaring bull market topped out at $19,891.99 on Dec. 17, 2017, and the death cross formed on March 30, 2018, when the pair closed at $6,848.01. By then, the pair had already corrected over 65% from the then all-time high.
Thereafter, the selling continued and the bear market bottom formed at $3,128.89 on Dec. 15, 2018. This meant a further fall of about 54% from the death cross and a total drawdown of 84% from the all-time high.
The above instances show how the death cross occurs late in the bear market cycle and investors who wait for the pattern to form give a lot of profits back to the market. At the same time, initiating bearish bets may work for short-term traders but could prove detrimental for long-term investors.
The examples show how the death cross is a lagging pattern, which forms when a large part of the decline has already occurred. Typically, long-term investors don’t need to panic if they spot the death cross on the daily charts but it is a signal to be more attentive to and perhaps prepare one’s portfolio for positioning for a variety of unanticipated outcomes.
Death crosses can also, at times, be used as a contrarian signal so when they are spotted traders should look for other indications of the chart to spot a possible bottom.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
4X growth in revenue since the seed fundraise with customers spread across 50+ countries
Series A funds raised from Sequoia Capital India
San Francisco, 21st July 2021: Multi-channel sales engagement platform, Outplay today announced its $7.3M series A fundraise from Sequoia Capital India. Outplay will use the funds raised to invest in technology and hiring exceptional talent across the globe.
Businesses today rely on a combination of inbound and outbound sales models to drive revenues. While the inbound sales process has rapidly evolved over the last 10 years, outbound sales hasn’t. Outbound sales teams typically use high-volume tactics to drive revenue. But this approach is not scalable and the revenue eventually becomes a function of the size of the outbound sales team. This is because outbound sales teams don’t have a data-driven approach for targeting prospects that are most likely to convert and end up spending time emailing or cold-calling hundreds of prospects hoping to convert a few.
Launched in 2019, Outplay is on a mission to change this by bringing predictability to outbound sales and help every salesperson talk to the right prospect at the right time through the right channel. The platform helps outbound sales teams plan, execute, track, measure and optimize interactions between companies and their prospects across multiple channels like email, phone, SMS, social media as well as live chat.
Laxman Papineni, CEO of Outplay commented, “Outbound sales teams are truly the dark horse of the sales organization – the targets are high, but the methods aren’t scientific. Outplay is committed to making outbound outreach data-driven, so that sales teams are talking only to the warmest prospects at any given point across multiple channels, optimizing time and resources. The continued partnership with Sequoia Capital India is a testament to the fact that the sales engagement space, which is poised to be a$5.59B market by 2023, is a huge opportunity for Outplay.”
With Outplay, sales managers can create data-backed sales playbooks to coach their team members and help them achieve their sales targets. The platform’s combination of automation and personalization helps teams start genuine conversations at scale, enabling them to stay on task by using multiple channels through a single interface to drive more meetings. Sales reps are thus able to build a multi-channel outreach plan for their prospects across email, phone, SMS, LinkedIn, Twitter and chat.
For example, Outplay helps sales teams engage with warm prospects by notifying them when their prospect visits their business website. Enabled by Outplay’s industry-first outbound live-chat feature, Magic Outbound Chat, the rep can initiate live chat and have a contextual conversation with the prospect. Customers have been able to qualify prospects faster and grow their pipeline by 300% using the tool alongside inbound chat.
“We continue to be very excited by Outplay’s mission of making every sales rep perform like the best rep on the team. Outbound sales needs are evolving rapidly and reps now need personalized, automated and contextual tools to drive sales which Outplay is successfully enabling. Sales reps spend an average of four hours per day on Outplay, demonstrating the effectiveness of the product which has category-leading customer reviews. Additionally, rapid digitization due to COVID has been a significant accelerant for the business and we believe these tailwinds will continue as outbound sales becomes more digital.” Harshjit Sethi, Principal, Sequoia India
Outplay also offers support to ensure software adoption across customer teams is done within days, not weeks or months. Since the seed fundraise – USD 2 Mn from Sequoia Capital India’s Surge early this year, the company has grown 4X in revenue, 3X in team size and has customers from more than 50 countries. Outplay was a part of the Surge 04 cohort.
Outplay is a multi-channel sales engagement platform that ensures outbound sales teams deliver the most powerful message at the perfect time in the buyer journey through the right channel. With features like dynamic sequencing, magic outbound chat and detailed analytics, Outplay gives sales development representatives (SDRs) and business development representatives (BDRs) the right signals so they only work on the warmest prospects across multiple channels like email, phone, SMS, LinkedIn, Twitter and Chat.
The oldest bank of America, BNY Mellon, has recently joined State Street and other banks in their foray into backing crypto trading platform Pure Digital. In accordance with the report shared by the Financial Times, the recent move of backing Pure Digital shows the surging interest of custody banks in cryptocurrencies from their clients.
BNY Mellon Backs Pure Digital Crypto Trading Platform
BNY Mellon made an announcement today that revealed it is going to join State Street Corporation and other banks in backing the Pure Digital crypto trading platform.
Lauren Kiley, the CEO of Pure Digital, gave details about the recent move and said:
“We have spoken to all the top-tier banks, but we think custody banks were some of the first to see demand, so they are now more advanced.”
Apart from BNY Mellon and State Street, there are other four banks on the list which have extended support for the crypto trading platform but have refused to disclose their identity, and hence their names are not yet known.
In addition to this, the Global Head of Foreign Exchange at BNY Mellon, Jason Vitale, laid an emphasis on the future of digital assets and said:
“Digital assets are only going to become more embedded in global markets in the years ahead, and this collaboration accords with BNY Mellon’s wider strategy to develop a digital asset capability for clients across the entire trade life cycle.”
Crypto Market Sentiment Index Hits One-Year Low
The Fear and Greed Index, a market sentiment indicator popular with the traders in the market, has shown a value of 10, which marks the lowest value in the year 2021.
Even though Bitcoin managed to gain some dollars after witnessing a heavy sell-off, which was possibly caused by the B-Word conference that will involve a discussion between Jack Dorsey, Elon Musk, and Cathie Wood, the index did not respond as expected.
Well, there is a positive side of this news too, as the last time when the Fear and Greed Index was close to 10, it was when the previous bull run started.
Back in September 2017, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon ridiculed Bitcoin, calling it a fraud “worse than tulip bulbs.” For the uninitiated, he was referring to the 17th century Dutch tulip market bubble, one of the craziest bubbles in recorded history. Fast forward a few years, JPMorgan and other banking giants have been dipping their …
Back in September 2017, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon ridiculed Bitcoin, calling it a fraud “worse than tulip bulbs.” For the uninitiated, he was referring to the 17th century Dutch tulip market bubble, one of the craziest bubbles in recorded history.
Fast forward a few years, JPMorgan and other banking giants have been dipping their toes in the blockchain world. Blockchain enables the untrusted parties to securely transact without middlemen that add to the cost and slow down the transaction speed. Thanks to the self-executing smart contracts, it offers a simple and secure way to establish trust in a transaction.
Can’t afford to get left behind
It’s not just network efficiency or cost savings that attract banks to blockchain. Blockchains can dramatically improve the security of digital transactions and remove the potential for errors, confusion, and fraudulent transactions.
Blockchain and the distributed ledger technology (DLT) are disintermediating the key services that banks provide such as payments, clearance & settlement systems, fundraising, borrowing, lending, customer KYC and fraud prevention. They help simplify the movement of money and sensitive data across the globe.
Large banks have now become far less hesitant to experiment with blockchain. According to a Global Blockchain Survey conducted by Deloitte, more than 95% of the participant banks said they would make at least some investment in blockchain or DLT.
Blockchain today is a lot like the Internet of the 1990s. Organizations reluctant to understand and exploit its capabilities will likely be left behind. It is disrupting almost every industry, including banking – just like the Internet disrupted many in the 1990s.
A growing number of banks have joined blockchain consortiums such as the Hyperledger project and R3 to advance the global blockchain adoption.
Banks joining different consortiums highlights the facts that there is no standardized implementation of blockchain technology.
There are hundreds of public, private, and consortium blockchains deployed around the world. Even if a bank is part of a consortium, it won’t be able to communicate or exchange information with banks outside the consortium.
Today, blockchains exist in isolation. They might not gain mainstream acceptance until users are able to seamlessly access value and utility across the entire ecosystem. End users cannot be locked into a single blockchain or standard.
Cross-chain bridges would drive the future adoption
Cross-chain platforms provide interoperability between two relatively independent blockchains. They allow the siloed networks to speak to one another and exchange information.
Given that banks are building their Dapps on different blockchains, they would rely on cross-chain platforms to talk to one another. Projects like Wanchain have been building cross-chain bridges to connect the different networks to help blockchain reach its full potential.
Earlier this year, Wanchain launched the world’s first BTC-ETH direct bridge. It already offers decentralized bridges connecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Wanchain, EOS, Binance Smart Chain, Litecoin, and XRP Ledger.
Wanchain’s cross-chain bridges use unified decentralized collateral pools maintained by its Storeman Group. When a user initiates a cross-chain transaction, the Storeman Group locks the original asset on the origin blockchain before minting a new token, pegged 1:1 to the original asset, on the destination chain.
Any blockchain – whether public, private or consortium chain – can easily integrate with Wanchain to establish connections between different ledgers and perform low-cost inter-ledger asset transfers.
Wrapping it up
The number of blockchain projects is growing rapidly as developers keep coming up with innovative ways to leverage blockchain’s capabilities. There are a wide variety of blockchain ecosystems such as Ethereum, Cardano, Polkadot, Solana, and others – each with their own set of advantages. It’s highly unlikely that there will be a single perfect blockchain platform that all the world’s banks could use to build their Dapps.
Cross-chain interoperability solutions like Wanchain enable the transmission of the world’s digital assets and data between various isolated blockchain networks in real-time. Truly decentralized and open finance must be connected to make banking services fast, secure, and affordable.
The crypto space was flowing through immense negative sentiments in the past couple of weeks where many assets plunge with a massive margin. The constant rejections of Bitcoin prices at $40K initially and later at $35K had shaken the space. Therefore other popular tokens like Litecoin price, XRP price, MATIC price, etc also suffered more …
The crypto space was flowing through immense negative sentiments in the past couple of weeks where many assets plunge with a massive margin. The constant rejections of Bitcoin prices at $40K initially and later at $35K had shaken the space. Therefore other popular tokens like Litecoin price, XRP price, MATIC price, etc also suffered more than 60% drop from yearly highs. While the other assets follow an unhurried race, Polygon price takes a gigantic long jump.
The MATIC bulls entered the ring right in time and ease the accumulated selling pressure. The price has experienced an extreme drain off in the last trading day, that it was on the verge to mark the lowest levels that the mid-may crash. However, the asset retraced like a giant accumulating more than 30% gains.
The price was following a descending channel where-in each attempt to break the channel resulted in lower lows. The extreme sell-off that initiated since the beginning of July compelled the price to break the lower support levels. However, the fresh surge kept the hopes of a notable surge above $1 alive.
As mentioned in the chart, the Polygon price needs to clear the upcoming barriers at $0.85, $0.97 and finally at $1.06. This would confirm the uptrend into a substantial bullish trend which may also push the price above the ATH. With a notable rebound, the targets remain unchanged or can say escalated. A popular analyst, CyrilXBT predicts a $15 target for MATIC price by EOY.