Kasuwanni suna farawa don kyakkyawan sakamako mai tsinkaya ga taron ECB. Bayanin baya-bayan nan daga membobin kwamitin tsara manufofin kuɗi sun nuna kyakkyawan tsammanin kasuwa. Wanda ke nufin cewa idan ECB ya yi wani abu daban da na ƙarshe, zai iya girgiza kasuwanni.

Labarin da ke gudana shine cewa babban bankin da aka raba zai fara zagayowar sauƙaƙawar sa a watan Yuni, tare da rage ƙimar ECB a cikin ajanda. An ƙarfafa wannan ta musamman ta hanyar sharhi na musamman daga Shugabar ECB Christine Lagarde waɗanda ake fassarawa da gaske suna gaya wa kasuwa lokacin da yanke zai faru. Ta ce, akai-akai, cewa bayanan daga Q1 za su kasance "masu mahimmanci" don sanin lokacin da za a rage farashin. Wannan bayanin zai fito ne a cikin wannan watan da farkon watan Mayu. Wanda ke nufin cewa ECB za ta sami bayanin da yake buƙata don yanke shawarar yanke a taron Yuni.

Ba Zai Iya Faru Ba Da daɗewa ba

A halin yanzu, duk da haka, bayanan sun taru don nuna lokaci ya yi da za a fara sauƙi. A saman tattalin arzikin yankin Yuro da ya tsaya cak ya zuwa yanzu, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki yana saukowa cikin sauri fiye da yadda ake tsammani. Hasashen farko daga ECB ya ce CPI ba zai ragu zuwa 2.0% manufa ba har sai shekara mai zuwa. Yanzu masana tattalin arziki sun yi imanin hakan na iya faruwa da zaran a cikin kwata na uku.

Dole ne mu tuna cewa shekaru da yawa, ECB yana fama da matsalar sabanin haka. Ya ci gaba da ƙima a ƙasa da sifili sama da shekaru goma yayin da yake yaƙi da ƙarancin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin ƙarancin ci gaban tattalin arziki. Turai ta ga babban koma baya a farashin kayan masarufi a bara sakamakon yakin da aka yi a Ukraine da kuma sakamakon kashe kudade na annobar. Amma Turai ba ta kashe kusan Amurka ko Burtaniya a lokacin barkewar cutar ba, ma'ana cewa hauhawar farashin sa ya kamata ya ragu.

Tasirin Tushe da Sauƙi na gaba

Abin da hakan ke nufi shi ne cewa sauye-sauyen farashin da ya haifar da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na shekara-shekara suna jujjuyawa daga lissafin watanni 12. Ana kiran wannan "sakamakon tushe", kamar yadda hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na shekara-shekara ke kwatanta farashin da shekara guda da ta gabata. Idan farashin ya ci gaba da girma a farashin su na yanzu, to, hauhawar farashin kaya ba zai iya saukowa kawai zuwa ga burin ECB ba, amma ya tafi ƙasa da shi.

Ana buƙatar haɓakar tattalin arziki gabaɗaya don haifar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. Tare da dawowar EU don matsawa gwamnatoci lamba su ci gaba da rufe bakinsu kan kashe kudadensu, saurin kudi a cikin tattalin arzikin da aka raba yana raguwa. Wanda ke nufin cewa ECB na iya samun kanta cikin buƙatar yankewa da sauri fiye da sauran takwarorinta don haɓaka manufofin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.

Abin da ake nema

Wataƙila hakan zai yi kyau nan gaba, duk da haka. Amma yana iya yin tasiri kan tunanin membobin ECB yayin da suke taruwa don yanke shawarar ƙimar su na Afrilu. Tambayar ita ce idan Lagarde, ko kuma ita kanta sanarwar, za ta ba da sigina mai ƙarfi fiye da abin da aka riga aka gabatar game da yanke na watan Yuni. Ko watakila ma nuni ga yiwuwar samun sauƙi a cikin watan Mayu, saboda ana tsammanin cewa babban bankin zai yi ƙoƙarin samar da wasu jagora kafin a fara sauƙi.

Kasuwancin labarai yana buƙatar samun dama ga bincike mai zurfi na kasuwa - kuma shine abin da muke yi mafi kyau.

LITTAFIN LITTAFI BUGA

• Ƙunshin Ƙarfafa SEO & Rarraba PR. Samun Girma a Yau.
• PlatoData.Network Tsaye Generative Ai. Karfafa Kanka. Shiga Nan.
• PlatoAiStream. Web3 Mai hankali. Ilmi Ya Faru. Shiga Nan.
• PlatoESG. Carbon, CleanTech, Kuzari, Muhalli, Solar, Gudanar da Sharar gida. Shiga Nan.
• PlatoHealth. Biotech da Clinical Trials Intelligence. Shiga Nan.
• Source: https://www.orbex.com/blog/en/2024/04/ecb-rate-decision-signals-when-the-cut-is-coming