Advanced estimates for June for 10 countries, on a
month-on-month basis, show a further stabilisation of demand in a
number of countries. Early results of the stimulus package resulted
in France posting 1.3% y/y growth for June – a much-needed positive
signal.
Despite positive short-term signals, it must be kept in mind
that for the first half of the year, demand is almost halved from
the prior year in Spain and Italy.
Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding the introduction of
incentives in several markets is causing many private consumers to
delay purchase decisions as they wait for government decisions.
Early and clear messaging is required to avoid stagnation in many
markets.
- In the United States, light-vehicle sales estimates for June
showed a further drop in demand in the region of around 26% on a
year-on-year (y/y) basis, although this represents an improvement
compared to May, as incentives, online sales, and reopening of
activities – especially at auto dealerships – supported sales.
Vehicle sales are down around 23% y/y for the first half of the
year. - The pace of decline is easing and if we use China as an example
of a market that is around six weeks ahead of many nations in the
cycle, there are indications of a tenuous recovery. - Europe again reported a sharp contraction in its key markets
with Italy falling 23% y/y and Spain 36% y/y. Although these
declines are not as steep as previous months, the continuing low
volumes underline the challenging conditions in these post-COVID-19
virus lockdown markets. Factors include constricted supplies of
vehicles, uncertainty in the tourism sector affecting rental
fleets, and impending government support incentives leaving buyers
delaying purchases. - Registrations in Germany fell around 32% y/y in June, although
this is a considerable improvement on the 61% drop witnessed in
May. For the first half of 2020, year-to-date (YTD) sales were down
nearly 35% y/y, although this still represents one of the better
performances for Europe as a whole.
About the Global Auto Demand Tracker
The Global Auto Demand Tracker is updated daily with sales
and/or registrations by country by make for the most recent
calendar month. Where an actual date is not yet publicly available,
the IHS Markit Sales Operations prediction for the month is
provided.
The Global Auto Demand Tracker allows automakers and their
national sales arms to see which markets are sliding into crisis,
which are emerging, and at the pace of the recovery. It also shows
which brands are being hit the hardest in terms of volume and
market share.
Access the Tracker on Connect.
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