GBP/USD Price Analysis: Soaring at Back of Strong Inflation


  • The pound is on track for a gain of almost 3% in March.
  • UK food inflation in March reached a new peak of 17.5%. 
  • Traders expect UK rates to peak at 4.5% by September.

Today’s GBP/USD price analysis is bullish. Thursday saw a 0.58 percent increase in the pound’s value against the dollar as headline inflation in Britain increased. The pound is on track for a gain of almost 3% in March. This is its best monthly performance since November. 

Are you interested in learning more about STP brokers? Check our detailed guide-

According to data released this week, UK food inflation in March reached a new peak of 17.5%. Temporary shortages of specific foods, like salad components, contributed to the increase. However, the official inflation rate in Britain, which is over 10%, is not decreasing.

The pound is being helped by central bank divergence in a situation comparable to that of the euro. According to City Index strategist Fiona Cincotta, even though the turmoil in the financial sector appears to have been contained, the Fed still doesn’t seem to be sure what to do next.

On the other hand, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has stated that the central bank may need to raise rates once more. This is in light of the UK’s surprise increase in inflation to 10.4% in February and the record-high increase in food inflation in March.

In March, expectations for the BoE’s likely monetary policy moves this year significantly changed.

After four weeks, money markets indicate that traders expect rates to peak at 4.5% by September, implying that the BoE has at most one more quarter-point increase.

GBP/USD key events today

Investors will pay attention to the UK GDP reports for Q4 that will show the state of the economy. From the US, inflation data will give clues on the Fed’s next move.

GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls supported by 30-SMA

GBP/USD technical price analysis

GBP/USD technical price analysis

On the technical side, GBP/USD is in a solid bullish trend, where the price consistently makes higher highs and lows. The price is currently well above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is near the overbought region.

Are you interested in learning more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide-

Bears had attempted to take over when the price punctured the 30-SMA support. However, the price is back to respecting the SMA support and has broken above the 1.2345 resistance level. From here, it will likely continue making higher highs and lows.

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money


Latest Intelligence