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Gasoline Prices Poised to Pass $5 Per Gallon This Summer

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The price of gasoline has continued to climb this week with the price of gasoline increasing an average of 9 cents per gallon this week, according to AAA, with prices surpassing $5 per gallon in many areas.

Gas prices are expected to surpass $5 a gallon this summer.

However, a new study from Sivak Applied Research notes the charge for a kilowatt electricity widely used to recharge the batteries in electric vehicles has not risen as fast as the price of gasoline or diesel fuel this year.

AAA reported since Monday, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline has increased by 14 cents to $4.76. 

“So far, the pent-up urge to travel caused by the pandemic outweighs high pump prices for many consumers,” said Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson, in a statement. “But 67% of drivers recently surveyed told us they would change their driving habits if gas hit $4.50 a gallon. That number rises to 75% at $5 a gallon. If pump prices keep rising, will people alter their summer travel plans? That remains to be seen.” 

What folks are paying

AAA gas comparison chart 5-31-22

California at $6.16 per gallon has the most expensive gasoline in the U.S., while prices average $5.30 per gallon in Nevada and $5.23 per gallon in Washington and $5.21 in Oregon.

However, electric vehicles are becoming more popular in the Western in the U.S. and the economics of fuel favor EV, according to a new study by Sivak Applied Research.

Michael Sivak, managing director at Sivak Applied Research, said the firm’s calculations show that the prices for March — the latest month with available electricity prices — increased by 27.4% for gasoline and 37.1% diesel, while the price for electricity increased only modestly, just 5.5 percent.

Gasoline versus diesel changes can now be calculated for May. They show the increase for diesel was substantially greater at 49.6% than the increase for gasoline at 34.1%, as was the case for all previous months.

In conclusion, drivers of electric vehicles have recently seen only a modest increase in the cost of their driving, while drivers of gasoline — and especially diesel-powered vehicles — were hit hard. Most EV owners recharge their vehicles at home.

Oil remains in short supply

AAA gas price average chart 6-3-22

Meanwhile, new data from the Energy Information Administration, total domestic gasoline stocks decreased by 700,000 barrels to 219 million barrels last week, putting more upward pressure on prices.

At the same time, gasoline demand grew from 8.8 million barrels per day to 8.98 million barrels per day as drivers fueled up for Memorial Day weekend travel. 

Coupled with volatile crude oil prices, pump prices will likely remain elevated as long as demand grows and supply remains tight, AAA said.

EIA said domestic oil production in the U.S. this year will surpass production in 2021 and is on course to surpass in 2023 the record the all-time record set in 2019 before the pandemic halted production and crushed prices.

Crude price impact

Crude prices have increased amid supply concerns now as the European Union works to implement a 90% ban on Russian oil imports by the end of this year. 

Gas price map 6-3-22

Crude prices were also boosted by increased demand expectations from the market after China lifted COVID-19 restrictions in Shanghai.

Additionally, EIA reported that total domestic stocks decreased by 5.1 million barrels to 414.7 million barrels last week. As a result, oil in storage is approximately 13.5% lower than a year ago, contributing to rising crude prices. 

Meanwhile, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies said Thursday it plans to increase oil production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August, which could lead to a deal with the United States that could lower crude prices.

Oil prices, and in turn gasoline prices, have soared to record levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which started in late February.

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