• Taiwan earthquake – semiconductor manufacturing facilities appear to be unaffected
• China’s state planner said it approved 9 investment projects in August, 80bn yuan value
• ICYMI – China rate cut. The 14-day reverse repos rate dropped to 2.15%, from 2.25%
• Iran’s president wants guarantees from the US, sanctions lifted, to reach a nuclear deal
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9396 (vs. estimate at 6.9488)
• China cities Chengdu and Dalian lift lockdowns today, Monday, 19 September 2022
• Fed’s track record in tightening monetary policy without causing a recession “not great”
• Swiss National Bank meet this week, a 100bp rate hike on the table – CHF impact
• US President Biden says US military would defend Taiwan in the event of invasion by China
• ANZ forecast a 75bp Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hike this week, terminal rate 5%
• New Zealand services PMI for August jumps to 58.6 (prior 54.4)
• ICYMI – Goldman Sachs now expect a 75bp Federal Reserve rate hike this week
• ICYMI – Germany took control of a major Russian-owned (a unit of Rosneft) oil refinery
• ECB Chief Economist Lane says more rate hikes ahead, its not going to be “pain free”
• ECB’s Nagel says the Bank has already agreed to further rate hikes when data warrants
• Trade ideas thread – Monday, 19 September 2022
• Here is whats on the economic calendar in Asia – very light, Monday, 19 September 2022
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 19 September 2022
• The post-merge bust continues as ethereum sinks on the weekend
• Week Ahead Preview: FOMC is the highlight
• Goldman Sachs on the US economy – more aggressive Fed, higher unemployment, lower growth
• Breakout or Fakeout? The USD moved to new multi -year/multi-decade highs. Can it continue?
• VIDEO: Seeing is believing. In trading the sense of sight is essential to your success.
• Canadian dollar hits a 22-month low. What’s next
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar gives a bit back after UMich

Major
FX rates showed little net change for the session here to open the
new forex week. And what a packed week ahead it is. We have policy
meetings, and rate hikes, coming up from the Federal Reserve’s
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Bank of England’s
Monetary Policy Committee, the Swiss National Bank, and others. We
also have a policy meeting at the Bank of Japan, where no change to
monetary policy is expected.

In
China, the cities of Chengdu and Dalian lifted their lockdowns today.
Staying with China, the People’s Bank of China cut the rate on its
14-day open market operations reverse repos from 2.25% to 2.15%. The
7-day RR rate was left unchanged at 2.0%. Coming up on Tuesday, the
20th, the PBOC will set one- and five-year loan prime rates. Given
the MLF rate remained steady last week there is no change expected to
the LPRs tomorrow.

The
USD/CNY reference rate crept further towards 7 again today.

Again
on China, but from a geopolitical perspective, US President Biden in
an interview on US TV, 60 minutes, said US forces would defend Taiwan
in the event of a Chinese invasion. This contradicts current official
US policy on the island. Stay tuned to this for White House
withdrawals of the remark/’clarification’ of the remark/all-round
muddying of the waters on the remark. Its getting difficult to pass
off such comments from Biden as ‘gaffes’, he has said the same
before and he is a wily character indeed.

While
on the 60 Minutes TV show, it also featured an interview with Iran’s
President Ebrahim Raisi. His comments were not indicative of any speedy
agreement on the nuclear deal with the US. Oil rose on the session but has since pulled back to be little changed.

Japanese
markets were closed for a holiday today. UK markets will also be
closed today for the burial of Queen Elizabeth II. Today marks the
final day of the official national mourning period. The absence of UK
markets will thin out interest and liquidity during the European/UK
timezone.