A forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision due Tuesday, 6 June 2023 at 2.30pm local time

• 0430 GMT and 1230 US Eastern time

AMP is tipping a +25bp cash rate hike citing:

• The Fair Work Commission’s decision to increase award rates of pay by 5.75% and the still tight labour market means its looking increasingly likely that wages growth (now running at 3.7%yoy) will push beyond the 3 to 4% comfort zone
• 
  This is at a time when productivity is very poor adding to the risk of further upwards pressure on unit labour costs.
  
• 
  So following the April inflation data and the further step in minimum and award wages growth, the risk is now very high that ongoing inflation and wages concerns will see the RBA overtighten and knock the economy off the narrow path.

Adds that if the RBA does hold today then the hike will come at the July meeting.

–

ps. While April inflation (data is linked above) stayed high the indication we received yesterday for May inflation suggests it didn’t just stay high, it had a renewed surge higher.

Earlier:

• ANZ, CBA, NAB & Westpac all expect Reserve Bank of Australia pause at next week’s meeting

And Greg has the AUD techs here:

• SEO Powered Content & PR Distribution. Get Amplified Today.
• PlatoAiStream. Web3 Data Intelligence. Knowledge Amplified. Access Here.
• Minting the Future w Adryenn Ashley. Access Here.
• Buy and Sell Shares in PRE-IPO Companies with PREIPO®. Access Here.
• Source: https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/forecast-for-a-25bp-rba-cash-rate-increase-due-to-ongoing-inflation-and-wages-concerns-20230605/