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Dow Just Began 10-Year Bull Run, Says Firm That Called 2019 Explosion

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  • Investment research firm Fundstrat predicts that we are in the midst of a 20-year secular bull market, with another decade left to run.
  • The firm accurately nailed 2019’s equity returns, predicting a 30% annual rise while others screamed ‘recession.’
  • In the short-term, Fundstrat sees a peak in Q1 2020 before a mild correction later in the year.

Recession? What recession? Investment research firm Fundstrat issued its latest report with a bold conclusion: we are in the middle of a 20-year bull run. According to the firm, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 will see another decade of gains before any deep or long-term reversal.

The report predicts a number of pullbacks along the way, but the dominant secular trend points to strong US equity returns into the early 2030s.

It’s a bold claim when many analysts are calling for an imminent recession. Even Morgan Stanley predicts gloomy returns over the next decade. So how did Fundstrat come to its bullish conclusion?

Why the Dow Could Run for Another Decade

The report is based on technical analysis which identifies a super-secular bull trend. Founder Tom Lee also said the conclusion is backed by the firm’s fundamental research and demographic trends.

“Long-term technical analysis says we are in a 20-year equity bull market… Consistent with our fundamental and demographic view.”

There are plenty of catalysts to back up the call. Trade war tensions with China are easing going into 2020. The Federal Reserve has lowered rates and began a new course of monetary easing. And flagging corporate earnings are due for a strong rebound in 2020, according to Lee.

I think next year earnings growth will actually be more than double digits.

Fundstrat Perfectly Predicted 2019 Huge Stock Market Gains

It would be easy to laugh off this 10-year hypothesis, but Fundstrat was eerily accurate about 2019’s stock market performance. Founder Tom Lee called for a 30% rise in the S&P 500 at the start of 2019. It finished the year 29% higher.

Fundstrat 2019 stock market prediction, Dow JonesFundstrat 2019 stock market prediction, Dow Jones

The firm remained resolutely bullish throughout 2019 despite the chorus of ‘recession’ calls and trade war conflict.

We should point out that Fundstrat doesn’t always get it right. When it comes to bitcoin, Lee predicted a $25,000 peak in 2018. BTC ultimately ended the year in the low $3,000s, having shed 85% from its highs.

JP Morgan Agrees with Bull Market Perspective

Fundstrat isn’t the only firm with wildly bullish expectations. JP Morgan issued a report that predicts “double digit annualized returns” going into the 2030s.

Their analysts believe the current bullish cycle began in February 2016 after a relatively stagnant 16 year period.

secular stock market bull trendsecular stock market bull trend
JP Morgan predicts double-digit annual growth until 2033-2035. Source: JP Morgan

The S&P 500 could approach or exceed the 10,000 level by the early to mid-2030s.

What to expect from the Dow in 2020

Alongside the decade-long hypothesis, Fundstrat issued some 2020 guidance. The report predicts a local high in the first quarter of 2020, followed by a healthy pullback going into Q2 and Q3.

Looking further out, Fundstrat sees a “cycle high” in 2021 or 2022. By which point, the firm believes the S&P 500 will reach highs of 3,850 – 4,700. If accurate, it would represent a 18% – 44% upside from here.

This article was edited by Samburaj Das.

Last modified: January 25, 2020 1:23 AM UTC

Source: https://www.ccn.com/dow-jones-bull-run-still-has-10-years-to-run-says-firm-that-perfectly-predicted-2019/

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PewDiePie Is Guilty of Every Attack He Hypocritically Aims at Jake Paul

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  • PewDiePie trashed fellow YouTuber Jake Paul’s new financial freedom courses in a recent video.
  • But Felix is guilty of shilling sketchy financial products too.
  • To top it off, PewDiePie gives financial advice in the video, while criticizing Jake Paul for not having any credibility to give financial advice.

PewDiePie wasn’t back on YouTube for long before running out of ideas for original content. So he piggy-backed off another YouTuber’s original work instead.

His response video to Jake Paul’s financial freedom movement isn’t the first time Kjellberg has attacked his fellow YouTuber’s efforts to make the world a better place. The king of gaming YouTube has a longstanding beef with both Jake and Logan Paul.

jake and logan pauljake and logan paul
PewDiePie has a longstanding beef with the Paul brothers. | Source: Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP

Last year, he even stooped as low as bashing Jake Paul’s petition to end cyberbullying.

PewDiePie has expressed consternation in the past with a media that nit-picks over his channel and allegedly blows anything negative out of proportion.

But he’s doing the same thing to Jake in this recent video.

Felix Shilled Scammy Cryptos

Just last month, Felix shilled sketchy cryptocurrency projects to his audience for affiliate revenue at the beginning of a video.

He even acknowledged with a joke how greedy it was to include an ad in a video that already had ads on it:

Many people have lost millions to crypto scams in the last decade while hoping to get rich. PewDiePie leveraged his fame and the trust of his fans to push more scammy cryptos. Yet he criticizes Jake Paul for encouraging people to educate themselves about finance and business.

He even made fun of another shady crypto scam in 2018, before selling out to TRON, BitTorrent, and DLive.

PewDiePie Mocks Jake Paul for Giving Financial Advice… Then Gives Financial Advice

As if that weren’t astounding enough, PewDiePie is actually guilty of what he slams Jake Paul for within the same video that he upbraids Paul. It’s unbelievable.

Pewds mockingly says:

Yes, Jake Paul is the person I look at when I envision financial freedom.

Then laughs.

But why not?

pewdiepie, jake paulpewdiepie, jake paul
PewDiePie is more like Jake Paul than he wants to admit. | Source: PewDiePie/YouTube

Paul is in his early 20s, and he’s a multi-millionaire. That actually makes him at least credible, if not authoritative, as a source of business and financial advice.

While PewDiePie doesn’t think Paul’s YouTube success translates to financial savvy, he instantly turns around and starts giving financial advice:

Student loan is the cheapest loan you can ever get. It’s one of the most fair loans. It’s a great loan to actually take advantage of.

That was in response to Jake Paul criticizing student loans for costing so much and not delivering students the earning power that would make them worth it.

But Jake Paul is right. And PewDiePie is wrong.

Job pay hasn’t kept up with the ballooning costs of loan-financed college education. And one markedly unfair aspect of student loans is they are notoriously difficult to discharge in bankruptcy.

PewDiePie concludes:

Jake Paul is the kind of celebrity that doesn’t have any real value… You could replace Jake Paul with anything or anyone and it wouldn’t make a difference.

Honestly, how special is it to play Minecraft and laugh at memes?

PewDiePie is even more “guilty” than Jake Paul of this final criticism.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CCN.com.

This article was edited by Josiah Wilmoth.

Source: https://www.ccn.com/pewdiepie-is-guilty-of-every-attack-he-hypocritically-aims-at-jake-paul/

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Secretive Digital Fiat Project Emerges With New Partner as CBDC Chatter Grows

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As central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) march into view, a privately-run version of digital fiat is adding a key tech partner.

Utility Settlement Coin (USC), the blockchain-based payments system involving commercial and central banks, will be working with ConsenSys-backed startup Adhara, CoinDesk has learned. Adhara was behind Project Khokha, which used enterprise blockchain client Quorum to see how zero-knowledge proofs performed with the South African Reserve Bank (SARB).

The move is one of only a handful of public overtures by Fnality, the company that oversees the development of USC. Fnality raised $64.5 million in June 2019 from 14 shareholders including banking giants Barclays, Santander, BNY Mellon, ING and others.

“We think adding Adhara is going to really help us. They’ve got experience of doing some of this type of stuff in other places,” said Fnality CEO Rhomaios Ram.

The sensitive nature of Fnality’s discussions with central banks means it likes to keep a low profile. To date, USC’s only known technology partner was London-based Clearmatics Technologies. (Clearmatics, which uses a fork of ethereum, played a key part in the inception of USC, along with Swiss lender UBS, back in 2015.)

“At Fnality we are pursuing a multi-partner strategy,” Ram said. “Part of that is associated with risk and part of that is associated with we want more people involved in this ecosystem.”

The USC is commercial bank money, as opposed to a pure CBDC, which is issued and backed by the domestic central bank and carries sovereign risk. However, the design of USC allows it to carry some of the characteristics of central bank money because the cash collateral backing the USC is held at a domestic central bank.

As stated in a mandate to its shareholder commercial banks, Fnality’s plan is to represent five currencies on its blockchain – USD, euro, JPY, GBP and CAD – and solve the so-called “cash on ledger” problem, allowing wholesale banking transactions to happen instantly, cross-border and 24/7.

An industry source close to Fnality said adding Adhara makes sense because the work the startup has already done in South Africa could evolve into a Fnality payment system. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) was also mentioned by the source as a possible custodian of Fnality’s tokenized cash.

Asked if SARB was going to be in the cards when it comes to including more central banks within Fnality, Ram said: “We can’t look ahead that far. Our mandate from our investors is to focus on the five [currencies] and then, depending on how successful we are with those five, we will come to the others as and when, depending on what our investors say at that time.”

Ram acknowledged that CBDCs have risen on the agenda since his company’s June 2019 fundraising, adding that Fnality has held “very casual, informational conversations with some people,” but he had no idea what their intentions were or whether it was just educational. 

Neither SARB nor SNB returned requests for comment.

The Libra effect

The landscape has changed dramatically regarding central banks and digital currencies thanks to Facebook’s audacious plans for its Libra stablecoin. 

A key question for any large-scale, privately-backed initiative in this area now is whether Libra was a good or a bad thing.

A positive scenario is that central banks now move more quickly on initiatives like USC; another possible outcome is the central banking fraternity actively discouraging private-sector experiments from encroaching any further into the territory of the state. 

Ram agreed that Libra cut both ways. “It was literally both good and bad,” he said. “It was good because obviously these types of things gather a lot of attention and people that didn’t take us seriously before started to. But at some level, if you are not in the detail of this, it all looks the same. That can be a good or bad thing.”

John Whelan, Santander Bank’s innovation chief who is also on the board of Fnality, said it was not a question of competing with CBDCs at all.

“We see these things as entirely complementary and it’s quite likely given the regulations and the impact potentially on monetary policy … that something like Fnality will come into existence [before CBDCs]. But they are totally compatible,” said Whelan.

In light of Libra, Ram was philosophical about possible outcomes for Fnality’s ambitious plan to tokenize fiat held in the coffers of major central banks. 

“If the only thing that this [Libra] does is force the conversation and force some speed up on CBDCs – from a personal perspective that might not be great – but from the investors’ perspective that might still work for them [Fnality’s shareholder banks],” he said.

2020 vision

Fnality’s task, to create a regulatory framework and rulebook that five large central banks can digest, is ambitious in itself, nevermind coordinating the build of the various parts of the stack plus all the integration work that has to be done. 

A second source familiar with the project said Fnality’s strategy regarding its contracting framework and execution plan seemed “quite confused.”

“Whenever you have a lot of people involved in something – and they’ve grown their headcount quite aggressively – if you don’t have a clear program and execution plan at the beginning, there’s a natural tendency to kind of end up going all over the place,” the source said.

Regarding the scale of the organizational challenge, Ram said: “That is kind of the special sauce of Fnality, organizing all of these different stakeholders. That’s what we are aiming to be good at – that and driving all the legal and regulatory.”

The plan announced with last year’s fundraising was to come out with one of the main five currencies on the network by the end of 2020. 

“We have got no reason to change our minds yet. So all looks still possible,” Ram said.  

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The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/secretive-digital-fiat-project-emerges-with-new-partner-as-cbdc-chatter-grows

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Caitlin Long Starts the First Crypto-Native Bank in the U.S.

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Caitlin Long, a former Wall Street executive who has helped Wyoming enact 13 blockchain-enabling laws, is taking advantage of the progressive Wyoming legislature to establish a first crypto-native bank in the U.S. The bank’s name is Avanti, which means “forward” in Italian.

Long made this announcement earlier today in a series of 29 tweets. She believes that “a critical piece of U.S. market infrastructure is missing – a regulated bank that can act as a bridge to the Federal Reserve for payments and [offer] custody for BIG institutional money.”

Long thanked Wyoming governor Mark Gordon for making this possible, as Avanti takes advantage of the special-purpose depository institution law “which is the optimal regulatory-compliant structure in the U.S. for providing financial services around crypto.” 

Cointelegraph reached out to Caitlin Long for a comment, but did not receive an immediate response. This article will be updated if we hear back.

Strict regulation

However, Long notes that this special-purpose depository law has stringent regulatory requirements. According to this law, all deposits — in the case of Avanti, crypto deposits — must be 100% reserved. Avanti will also not be allowed to use deposits for any financial operations of its own — a practice known as “rehypothecation.” Strict Know Your Customer standard must be applied. “DON’T EVEN THINK ABOUT trying to use Avanti for illegal/nefarious purposes!!!!!!!!!,” warns Long in a tweet.

Strange bedfellows

Long stated that she has had many long conversations with Adam Back, CEO and founder of Blockstream and an early contributor to Bitcoin, prior to starting Avanti. She believes that Blockstream is an “ideal partner for serving BIG institutional investors that require regulated banks to deliver them services around bitcoin in USD markets.”

However, she states that Avanti will stay “protocol neutral” and will welcome all cryptocurrencies demanded by clients. According to Long, we can also expect to see: 

STRANGE BEDFELLOWS because it’ll attract the best from the crypto & traditional worlds. I’m comfortable + have deep relationships in both worlds & I am equally comfy in NYC’s concrete canyons as in the wilds of Wyoming.”

Long expects Avanti to open its doors in early 2021. If Long is right that could lead to the influx of a significant amount of new liquidity to the market.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/caitlin-long-starts-the-first-crypto-native-bank-in-the-us

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