Risks, benefits weighed of reopening different businesses amid COVID-19
For maximum benefit relative to risk amid the COVID-19 pandemic, banks, dentists, colleges, places of worship, auto dealers, and repair shops should be reopened first, followed by gyms, cafes, juice bars, and dessert parlors, according to a study published yesterday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology used mobility data from 47 million smartphones, consumer preference surveys, and economic statistics to measure the infection risk against the consumer and economic value of 26 types of US businesses employing 32 million people, paying $1.1 trillion in yearly payroll, and taking in $5.6 trillion each year.
By store type, those that sell electronics and furniture should be opened before stores that sell liquor, tobacco, or sporting goods, the study found.
The 26 locations of interest accounted for about 57% of all unique visits from January 2019 to March 2020. There was a 24.9% drop in total visits to all locations in the analysis from February to March 2020, when shutdowns and physical distancing began.
Sit-down restaurants had large numbers of both visits and unique visitors. The authors noted that the biggest outliers were colleges and universities and hardware stores. While colleges offer a relatively good trade-off, most shut down, resulting in 61% fewer visits. In contrast, visits to liquor and tobacco stores fell only 5%, despite the authors deeming them poor trade-offs because of their mediocre economic importance and elevated likelihood of transmission.
Hardware stores saw the largest increase in visits as consumers sought personal protective equipment and home supplies.
The largest declines in visits occurred at locations that the study findings indicated should be closed first from February to March, indicating that consumers, businesses, and policy makers are doing their own risk-benefit analyses.
The authors said that governments should use the study findings, as well as their own region-specific research, to guide reopenings while working toward the public health goal of slowing coronavirus spread.
Jun 10 PNAS study
A quarter of COVID-19 diagnostic tests inaccurate, researchers find
Seven of 27 COVID-19 diagnostic tests studied (26%) had potential genomic sequence mismatches that may lead to underperformance or false-negative results, a study published yesterday in Royal Society Open Science has found.
Because viruses mutate, researchers at York University in Toronto tested the accuracy of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests using genetic variations in more than 17,000 publicly available PCR tests from around the world, some of them recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).
Rapid sequencing of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, by national organizations led to early publication of the genome by the WHO but may have inadvertently led to the development of tests that don’t account for variations and mutations, the authors said.
Test-viral genome mismatches are not uncommon, having been reported in the flu, HIV, respiratory syncytial virus, and dengue, rabies, hepatitis B viruses. In addition, tests for COVID-19 were rapidly deployed with limited regulatory approval amid a public health emergency.
Early diagnostic testing is a public health priority because it can lead to quarantine of infected people, but false-negative test results can lead to further spread of the coronavirus by people with mild illness or no symptoms. The study findings highlight the need to update COVID-19 diagnostic tests by regularly checking sequence variations in the PCR primer/probe binding regions, the authors said.
“These findings are potentially important for clinicians, laboratory professionals and policy-makers as it gives them a better idea of which tests may deliver the best results and how to ensure the tests they are using are properly matched to the virus genome,” lead author Kashif Aziz Khan, PhD, said in a press release.
Jun 10 R Soc Open Sci study
Jun 9 York University press release
Research identifies GI symptoms, fecal viral RNA in COVID-19 patients
About 12% of COVID-19 patients have gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, and 41% of patients shed viral RNA in their feces, according to a systematic review and meta-analysis published by international researchers today in JAMA Network Open.
In the meta-analysis of 23 published and 6 preprint studies involving 4,805 COVID-19 patients from Nov 1, 2019, to Mar 30, 2020, the most common reported GI symptoms were diarrhea (7.4%) and nausea or vomiting (4.6%). Eight studies that provided data on fecal virus RNA shedding yielded a rate of 40.5%. It is important to note that the presence of virus RNA does not necessarily indicate live (infectious) virus.
Abnormal levels of the liver enzymes aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase, indicating organ damage, were seen in 14.6% and 20% of patients, respectively. Mean patient age was 52 years, and 1,598 of 4,805 patients (33.2%) were women.
The authors noted that the first US coronavirus patient reported loose bowel movements and abdominal pain and had PCR test results indicating viral RNA in fecal and respiratory specimens.
“This raises the question of inadvertent human-to-human transmission via the fecal route despite public health emphasis on droplet transmission and precautions for contact with respiratory secretions,” the authors wrote. “Particularly concerning is the presence of detectable RNA in the GI tract, making the use of optimal personal protective equipment and following up-to-date national infection control guidelines highly prudent.”
Jun 11 JAMA Netw Open study
Source: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/06/covid-19-scan-jun-11-2020
