- Gold and bitcoin are on the verge of making new 2020 highs.
- The bitcoin-to-gold ratio is forming its own break out pattern, suggesting that bitcoin will be the superior investment in the near future.
- Only the next financial crisis will test the validity of these competing hedge assets.
Despite a rising death toll, the coronavirus may not be the only thing ready to break out.
The precious yellow metal and its so-called “digital gold” equivalent are on the verge of escaping containment themselves.
Are gold and bitcoin finally ready to play their parts as global risk-off assets? Only time will tell, but the charts increasingly say yes.
The slide in stocks from mid-January seems to coincide with increased awareness of this potential new pandemic. But gold and bitcoin are marching ever onward as investors run for cover.
What the Charts Say
Bitcoin pierced the $9,100 handle late Monday but only temporarily, as traders took profits. The flagship cryptocurrency is not far from posting a new yearly high in the $9,200 area:
That’s excellent news for 2020 buyers, not so much for mid-2019 ones. But despite a deceptively superior-looking gold chart, bitcoin still dominates in the safe haven space.
Gold, too, is about the break out after having posted multi-year price gains above $1,600 on Jan. 8.
The commodity’s stellar two-year performance looks strikingly similar to its post-global recession price run.
If that scenario plays out, it may even test its all-time high above $1,900 a troy ounce sometime this year.
The Bitcoin/Gold Ratio
For gold-punting investors who can’t operate their bitcoin wallets, the below chart makes an excellent argument for crypto.
You’ll notice that the bitcoin-to-gold ratio is forming a classic bull flag pattern:
This typically resolves with a big push to the upside. Bitcoin is already worth five times its tangible brother in price terms, and if this pattern plays out, it may be worth upwards of 15 times that.
The Proof Is in the Recessionary Pudding
Gold has long held the mantle of risk-off king. But a real financial panic has not emerged for more than ten years:
The decade-long bull market will have to end sometime. Only then will we know the full potential of these competing global hedge assets.
If coronavirus has its way, that may be sooner than we think. Ironically, gold underperformed during the last financial crisis, losing roughly 10% of its value until early 2009.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has yet to be tested. Until it is, there’s no way to know for sure whether it really is “digital gold.”
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article do not represent investment or trading advice from CCN.com.
This article was edited by Sam Bourgi.
