The S2F model is currently suggesting that, in the worst-case scenario, BTC will surpass $98K by November, which is highly optimistic given recent market developments.
S2F’s Methodology & Accuracy
Comparing Bitcoin to precious metals like gold and silver, PlanB has used statistics to outline a defined relationship between the value and scarcity of a given asset. The basic hypothesis is that the easier it is to produce a good, the harder it is for it to retain value, assuming demand remains stable.
PlanB notes that demand will be driven by predatory governments imposing negative interest rates, billionaires hedging against inflation, and institutional investors. This information, pieced together with the power laws and fractals observation that BTC’s price often centers around, has created a model that has proven to be fairly solid for the past 2 years.
Turbulent Waters Ahead
The road to a 6-figure BTC price won’t be smooth sailing. Whilst his latest tweet indeed paints an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin by the end of the year, PlanB also notes that there will be possible ‘weakness’ in the next few months due to a ‘more fundamental reason’ that he will reveal later on.
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crack down.
There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K pic.twitter.com/hDONOVgxH1
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 20, 2021
The recent death cross formation might be a factor in this predicted weakness.
Long-term targets for BTC remain intact, and according to him, still, look better than ever, so it will be imperative for Bitcoin holders to weather the storm and HODL.