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Bitcoin This Week: All Eyes on Fed Meeting After $10,500-Rejection

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Bitcoin closed last week with a brief jump above $10,500, a critical resistance target that excited traders into booking their short-term profits.

The result was a dump. Bitcoin’s benchmark symbol BTC/USD trimmed about $350 off its weekly top overnight. Furthermore, the pair fell into the same trading range that trapped its breakout moves throughout this September. Entering the new week, the technical outlook for BTC/USD remains the same as before: Fluctuate inside the $9,800-$10,400 area.

bitcoin, btcusd, btcusdt, xbtusd, cryptocurrency, Euro, EURUSD, cryptocurrency, dollar,

Bitcoin rejects $10,500 to enter the previous consolidation range. Chart Source: TradingView

Josh Rager, the co-founder of BlockRoots.com, also noted the same in his weekly analysis. The analyst said BTC/USD should reclaim $11,900 to confirm its bullish bias.

“Until then, I remain neutral (leaning bullish) and will continue to trade altcoins at this time,” he added.

More Insights on Inflation

The Bitcoin market opened the new week in green, partially after finding modest technical support above $10,200 that caused an uptick in bullish trades. At the same time, the bounce-back after the $10,500-rejection also appeared ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday.

The central bank’s gathering expects to explain how it would put its fresh inflation targeting policy into action. There remains a lack of clarity after the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, committed to raising the inflation rate towards or above its benchmark target of 2 percent at the annual economic policy symposium held two weeks back.

Many analysts and investors, including the likes of Paul Tudor Jones, the Winklevoss Twins, and Jack Dorsey, believe higher inflation would push the Bitcoin price higher. The scarce asset, to them, is a reliable measure of protection–a hedge–against purchasing power risk.

Nevertheless, BTC/USD remains to the downside even after the Fed’s inflationary outlook for the years ahead. The pair plunged by a maximum of 18.75 percent from its session top above $12,000. The downside move clarified that many daytraders remained skeptical for the short-term.

The reason could be the first significant correction in the US equity market since March 2020, especially in the tech stocks. The sell-off shifted investors back into the fiat market. It, meanwhile, woke the US dollar index from its two-year low, making other safe-haven assets–like Bitcoin and gold–cheaper.

Bitcoin Correction Risks

A clarification over how the Fed plans to reach its inflation targets in the coming years could push Bitcoin higher. That would mean a retest of the $10,400-resistance followed by another extended move towards $10,500.

Nevertheless, if the central bank remains elusive at the September meeting, Bitcoin would risk breaking below $10,000 to target $9,800 as its primary downside target. To make the matter worse, one economist sees no major announcement from the Fed this week.

Nomura’s Lewis Alexander said the Fed officials have not agreed on the timing of its forward guidance release, especially as the US economy shows signs of recovery after recording a modest growth in its manufacturing and labor sector.

“Recent comments from FOMC participants suggest a consensus for stronger, outcome-based forward guidance or significant changes to asset purchases remains some ways off,” Mr. Alexander said in a note.

But if Bitcoin traders are watching closely, they could take some bullish cues off the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections–aka “dot plot“–coming this week. There, the central bank would likely continue its zero-rate policy at least until 2022. Lower rates lift the appeal of riskier assets.

Photo by Random Sky on Unsplash

Source: https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-this-week-all-eyes-on-fed-meeting-after-10500-rejection/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=bitcoin-this-week-all-eyes-on-fed-meeting-after-10500-rejection

Blockchain

Ethereum: Is the HODLing in yet?

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When it comes to the altcoin market, the past few months have shown how important a cryptocurrency Ethereum is. With DeFi growing substantially in 2020, the gains have been felt by ETH in many ways. While ETH has miles to go before it can challenge the market cap and dominance of Bitcoin, its remarkable growth thanks to DeFi and the proposed ETH 2.0 shift cannot be overlooked. With Ethereum’s use cases diversifying, users and investors within the ecosystem are reaping its benefits too.

Source: Glassnode

According to recent network data provided by Glassnode, Ethereum balances on centralized exchanges have fallen substantially over the past few weeks. In fact, the aforementioned data showed a drop from over 18,750K to around 16,750K, resulting in Etherum balances on exchanges falling to their lowest level for the year 2020, at the time of writing.

While this drop may seem alarming to some, it also illustrates a silver lining of sorts for the cryptocurrency. A fewer number of users are now holding their Ethereum on exchanges. Instead, they are moving them to cold storage or cold wallets – a sign commonly associated with increased hodling sentiment. As more users hold on to their Ethereum, the price of the cryptocurrency is also likely to be positively impacted.

One of the reasons why many users are feeling inclined to do so can be due to its recent performance, as well as its ability to derive growth from a booming DeFi ecosystem that is based on its platform.

Source: Glassnode

In fact, it is also interesting to note that over the same timeframe, Ethereum addresses with greater than 10 ETH have also seen a significant rise. According to network data provider Glassnode, such addresses have risen from 275K to 283K in the last three months alone.

One of the key reasons behind the aforementioned drop in Ethereum stored on exchanges ties back to increased hodling sentiment within the Ethereum community, as highlighted above. This, coupled with a rise in Ethereum locked in smart contracts (Since investors are looking to generate greater returns at a time when Etherum’s price is consolidating on the charts), bodes well for the cryptocurrency’s ecosystem.

Source: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/ethereum-is-the-hodling-in-yet

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Brace for it – Bitcoin Futures may be nearing a tipping point

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What’s the tipping point for Bitcoin Futures on top derivatives exchanges like the CME, an exchange that has recorded a daily trading volume of over $300M and Open Interest of over $400M, consistently, for the past 3 months. 

Inching closer to the tipping point of Bitcoin Futures

Source: Skew

Well, a small shift in Open Interest or trading volume can have a cascading effect on Bitcoin Futures’ performance in the next 180 days. Such a shift will be influenced by several factors, and it begins at the tipping point. Three factors, to be more specific. 

In the current phase of Bitcoin’s market cycle, these factors are more relevant for traders on derivative exchanges. This becomes more evident when the Liquidations chart for BitMEX is observed. Over the past 3 months, sell liquidations have paid for buy liquidations. However, over the last few days, this trend has been reversed, and buy liquidations have covered for sell liquidations on BitMEX.

Inching closer to the tipping point of Bitcoin Futures

Source: Skew

The point here is to detect the source of the domino effect before the dominoes start falling. In the case of Bitcoin Futures, the tipping point may be closer than anticipated. 

One of the top factors influencing the tipping point is the Law of the Few. 

The Law of the Few states that “the success of any kind of social epidemic is heavily dependent on the involvement of people with a particular and rare set of social gifts.”

In the case of Bitcoin, institutional investors, derivatives traders, and whales fit the bill. The success of Bitcoin Futures in the global trading community heavily relies on institutional investors trading on CME. In fact, the daily trade volume and Open Interest on CME influence the trading sentiment across spot exchanges as well. 

The last time a cascading effect was witnessed was when BTC Futures’ Daily Trading Volume hit $445M on CME and there was a rally all the way up to $614M. At the time of writing, the Daily Trading Volume was up 63.3%, when compared to the figures 6 months ago, and it has the potential to hit $614M with one move in the right direction.

This effect heavily relies on another key factor – The Stickiness Factor.

Back in 2017, when Google search results for “Bitcoin” and “Crypto” broke the record, the trading community witnessed a historic Bitcoin bull run and altcoin rally. Institutional interest and growth of Bitcoin derivative products ensued. A similar event transpired when Bitcoin Futures’ aggregated daily volume hit $184B on 27 July 2020. This event was a unique occurrence, and it made Bitcoin Futures stick in the portfolio of the average institutional investor and the derivatives trader.

Inching closer to the tipping point of Bitcoin Futures

Source: Skew

The aggregate trade volume hasn’t dropped to pre-July 2020 levels since then. Despite drops in Bitcoin’s price on spot exchanges, Futures contracts continue to trade at a premium and there is more optimism. Volume is not directly impacted by Bitcoin’s price and when the spot market is riddled with bearish sentiment, long contracts continue feeding shorts on BitMEX. This stickiness is a driver of the aforementioned tipping point. 

Inching closer to the tipping point, the powerful context is the rise of stablecoins and their instrumental role in lowering the barrier to entry on spot and fiat-crypto exchanges.

Over the past three months, stablecoins like USDT have added $100M in volume every day and their market capitalization and dominance have risen tremendously. In fact, Tether has also crossed a market capitalization of $15B.

This directly influences the tipping point for Bitcoin Futures as it makes Futures trading more accessible to traders. Bitcoin held on exchanges has nearly doubled over the past month, corresponding to an increase in Tether’s market capitalization and circulation. This resonates with derivatives traders who opt for physically-settled Bitcoin Futures contracts on exchanges like Bakkt. In fact, on Bakkt, the daily trade volume was upwards of $80M for the past week, while the Open Interest has been consistently above $10M.

Inching closer to the tipping point of Bitcoin Futures

Source: Skew

All of these factors are highlighting a shift in derivatives traders’ strategy, while also underlining increased activity on derivatives exchanges. The race to the tipping point has begun – An increase in aggregate trading volume on physically-settled Futures contracts or CME may trigger the much-awaited domino effect.

Source: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/brace-for-it-bitcoin-futures-may-be-nearing-a-tipping-point

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Tron, Synthetix, VeChain Price Analysis: 19 September

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Tron was observed to have hit a strong zone of resistance, before being rejected and pushed to the downside, at the time of writing. In fact, such bearish momentum appeared likely to continue for TRX. At a time when Ethereum was increasingly being criticized for high Gas fees and a congested network, it could have been Tron’s moment to shine, but things didn’t pan out that way at all.

Further down the charts, Synthetix continued making lower highs in its downtrend while VeChain broke out upwards after a few days of relative calm.

Tron [TRX]

Tron, Synthetix, VeChain Price Analysis: 19 September

Source: TRX/USDT on TradingView

TRX was seeing oversold conditions a few days ago when its RSI hit a low of 23, before ascending just past 50. However, the RSI was unable to remain above 50, and its drop beneath the level highlighted the fact that TRX’s recent 12% surge from $0.263 to $0.296 was merely a bounce.

TRX found a zone of strong resistance at $0.3 and looked likely to drop towards the support at $0.265.

Interestingly, a recent Reddit post has raised questions about JustSwap’s vetting process, claiming that the Tron Foundation has whitelisted a DeFi project that has since pulled a $2 million exit scam. This, despite DappRadar listing the project as “high-risk.”

Synthetix [SNX]

Tron, Synthetix, VeChain Price Analysis: 19 September

Source: SNX/USD on TradingView

Synthetix underlined the possibility of dropping lower on the charts. The Directional Movement Index did not yet show a strong trend, but ADX (yellow) was inching towards 20 and could move further north. Also, the rising -DMI (pink) denoted a bearish trend.

Over the past week, every SNX bounce off the level of support has been overwhelmed by selling pressure. This can be expected to continue. With the price registering lower highs, the way down remained the path of least resistance for SNX.

The next level of support after $4.23 lay at $3.36, representing a 20% depreciation.

VeChain [VET]

Tron, Synthetix, VeChain Price Analysis: 19 September

Source: VET/USD on TradingView

VeChain showed bullishness in the market after a period of consolidation. The Bollinger Bands expanded to indicate heightened volatility, while the price broke out towards the upper band. At the time of writing, the price was staying above the 20-period moving average, a moving average that could be tested as support as VET steadily climbs toward its resistance around the $0.158 zone.

The breakout was also accompanied by high trading volumes, legitimizing the breakout.

Source: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/tron-synthetix-vechain-price-analysis-19-september

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