Akio Toyoda dropped a truth bomb on the auto industry over the weekend, explaining that the aggressive targets for the end of internal combustion engine sales by 2035 put forward by the California Air Resources Board and other entities will be challenging for Toyota and other automakers to achieve.

Perhaps more importantly, Toyota’s occasionally outspoken CEO noted consumer adoption of EVs may not keep up with expectations. 

“Everything is going to be up to the customers to decide,” Toyoda said at a Toyota dealers meeting last week in Las Vegas. “Just like the fully autonomous cars that we are all supposed to be driving by now, EVs are just going to take longer to become mainstream than media would like us to believe. In the meantime, you have many options for customers.”

Eight plug-ins or one EV? 

“Toyota can produce eight 40-mile plug-in hybrids for every one 320-mile battery electric vehicle and save up to eight times the carbon emitted into the atmosphere,” Toyoda pointed out. 

The thinking behind Toyoda’s statement is valid. Americans could do most of their daily driving on electricity with a 40-mile plug-in hybrid. According to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the average American drives 29 miles per day. Plug-in hybrids also alleviate range anxiety, since the internal combustion engine kicks in when the electricity runs out. 

But studies show that PHEV owners often fail to charge their cars regularly, and sometimes do so only rarely. Also, the same study shows that up to three EVs are sold for every PHEV. 

“In the U.S., the country of analysis for this study, over 325 000 vehicles were sold in 2019. Of this 74.2% were battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and 25.8% plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs),” according to a study on IOPScience.com, which houses a variety of scientific, technical and medical papers, journals and other content. 

Unless people purchase and then use a plug-in hybrid as intended, its net benefit to emissions reduction is zero. 

Love from green groups is fleeting

Toyota was once the darling brand of the eco-conscious. Tom Potter, formerly mayor of Portland, Oregon, used to park his Prius in a prominently carved out spot in front of city hall. The Prius, in general, was used so performatively to proclaim green credentials that it became jokingly known as the “Pious.” 

That’s not so much the case anymore. 

“The fact is: a hybrid today is not green technology. The Prius hybrid runs on a pollution-emitting combustion engine found in any gas-powered car,” The Sierra Club’s Katherine García wrote in an August blog post.”

That’s not the only hit Toyota has taken. Greenpeace now ranks Toyota at the bottom of its green ratings. 

“Nissan and Honda fell three places in Greenpeace East Asia’s latest auto industry ranking due to their slow transition to zero-emission vehicles. The two automakers were trailed only by Toyota, which received the lowest score for the second year in a row,” reads a September press release from the organization. 

“In 2021, 499 out of every 500 vehicles that Toyota sold were powered by fossil fuels — a shockingly high rate. There is a lot of hype around electric vehicles right now, but the reality on the ground is that traditional automakers are not doing nearly enough to transition to zero-emission vehicles,” said Greenpeace East Asia Project Lead Ada Kong.

Sales results up

Toyota reported U.S. September sales of 179,050 vehicles, up 17.1% on a volume and daily selling rate (DSR) basis versus September 2021. Notably sales of electrified vehicles totaled 35,419, representing nearly 20% of total monthly sales. 

Through the third quarter, Toyota electrified vehicle sales totaled 111,713, representing 21.2% of total year-to-date sales. Year-to-date electrified vehicle sales including battery, fuel cells, hybrids and plug-in hybrids represent nearly one-quarter of total volume for America’s best-selling brand. 

“Through the end of 2022, customers can expect even more electrified options in showrooms from both brands including four new Corolla hybrid grades, the Corolla Cross hybrid, the all-new Toyota Crown with two hybrid options, and the all-new Lexus RX with available hybrid,” said Jack Hollis, Toyota Motors North America’s executive vice president of sales.

In a market where the push for EVs is strong, yet consumer uptake is still weak, Toyota’s commitment to hybrids may be the best answer, but not the answer anyone wants to hear.