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2013 vs 2017 vs 2021 Bitcoin bull runs: What’s the deciding factor?

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With Bitcoin’s price crossing $41000 and hitting a new ATH, there are several stories on the internet examining the similarity between the current and the bull runs in 2013 and 2017, which may just be a desperate effort to predict the price trend. However, there are a few metrics that support this comparison.

One of the popular metrics is Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple. The value of Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple is 2.87 at press time and it is currently 2% lower than all of Bitcoin history. This value of the multiple puts it in the 2013 and 2017 bull run’s zone and as institutional investors are entering the market and generating higher demand, the burning question is whether this high multiple will be sustained?

Source: Ecoinometrics

The current value of the Mayer Multiple suggests there may be a correction in Bitcoin’s price and that is bearish, however, that favors the opposite sentiment. Based on this metric, the price rally is likely to continue till February 2021 and then top out. The Mayer Multiple has emerged as a reliable indicator in 2013 and 2017, this makes it critical to watch its value when the price is rallying.

If there is a macro top, there is a possibility that most retail traders may time their exit and book profits. Besides the Mayer Multiple, another key chart for predicting the direction of the price trend is the Bitcoin risk-adjusted returns that show that the value of the Sharpe ratio for Bitcoin is back in the 2017 level. This is bullish since the returns have been more consistently increasing in the past 3 quarters, and despite many traders wishing for a dip, there hasn’t been one. Instead, crypto Twitter analysts are of the opinion that Bitcoin’s price may never hit $20000 ever again. 

Bitcoin risk adjusted returns || Source: Woobull Charts

The above chart captures the 2017 bull run, the winter, and the ongoing price rally. Bitcoin is the asset with the highest risk-adjusted returns, however, it is now at the bull/bear threshold and the direction of the price trend could be a deciding factor for Bitcoin’s price. The value of the Sharpe Ratio signals bullish sentiment, unlike the Mayer Multiple. Further price discovery above $40000 will predict the accuracy of the Mayer Multiple/ Risk-adjusted returns

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/2013-vs-2017-vs-2021-bitcoin-bull-runs-whats-the-deciding-factor/

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‘XRP’s price being artificially suppressed by lawsuit,’ claims lawyer

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“This XRP coin is all or nothing,” noted Jeremy Hogan of the law firm Hogan & Hogan, with the legal practitioner becoming just the latest to comment on the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple. Hogan, who claims to have studied the lawsuit in detail since December, is in the news after he asserted that if the lawsuit goes in Ripple’s favor, then it will be a “conservative estimate” to assume XRP’s price would go up by 2-3 times by the time it ends.

Alternatively, Hogan also claimed that XRP might drop to zero if litigation ends poorly and the SEC hinders Ripple’s ability to fund operations entirely, forcing Ripple to shut down.

This situation is unlikely, however, given the fact that Ripple is a technology company that does not rely too heavily on physical assets to run its operations. In the worst-case scenario, Ripple can expect significant disruption to its business model and it might have to stop dealing with U.S-based investors, while also considering incorporating itself overseas.

Hogan wasn’t done, however, with the attorney going on to add,

“In my opinion, the upside to XRP, especially in the short-term, greatly outweighs the downside by at least 2-3 times.”

The popular attorney also suggested that XRP’s price has been artificially suppressed by the current lawsuit against Ripple. According to Hogan, whatever the conclusion is, it won’t be a ‘death blow’ to Ripple.

“My conclusion is that the most likely outcome of the SEC lawsuit would be a settlement involving a large fine or penalty for sales from 2013-14 and maybe 2015 and some sort of control or limitation on the sale of the escrowed XRP.”

Before Hogan, Gabriel Shapiro, Partner at BSV Law, was the latest to comment on the future prospects of Ripple. He suggested that if Ripple were to become an SEC reporting company, XRP could redeem itself. Although this would kill the utility of the digital asset XRP, he claimed that there will still be ways to generate value from XRP.

Interestingly, Ripple execs have often cited “regulatory uncertainty” in the U.S to be a concern, and have even discussed relocating overseas to overcome this issue.

It is fair to assume that the market has already priced this into the price of XRP, suggesting that if Ripple comes out on the right side of the lawsuit, it would essentially remove all the uncertainty that’s been hanging over XRP for years now.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/xrps-price-being-artificially-suppressed-by-lawsuit-claims-lawyer/

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Ripple targets UAE-India corridor with LuLu Exchange, Federal Bank partnership

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UAE-based LuLu Exchange is in the news after it announced its partnership with Ripple and India’s Federal Bank to facilitate faster cross-border payments from UAE to India.

The partnership between Ripple and Federal Bank, a leading Indian private bank, has long been rumored, with an official disclosure released by the Federal Bank doing the rounds too. However, this is perhaps the first time a partnership of such a tripartite nature has been announced, especially one involving an Indian bank. Interestingly, the disclosure in question said,

“This partnership will help Federal Bank to explore new corridors where Ripple is aggressively pursuing new partnerships.”

Using RippleNet, cross-border remittances are expected to be significantly faster and more secure, an incredible development, especially in light of the high remittance volume between India and the UAE.

The same was recently highlighted by Asheesh Birla, General Manager of RippleNet, after he revealed that the APAC region remains Ripple’s busiest region for customer demand and transaction growth. In India alone, Ripple is working with 3 out of the 5 major banking players, with the rapidly growing MENA-India corridor likely to become Ripple’s largest one so far.

India is the world’s top receiver of remittances, with the country’s share in global remittance volumes often climbing as high as 12% in the years past.

The UAE alone accounts for over $13.8 billion in remittances to India, ranking number one amongst all the countries in terms of inward remittances to the nation. Ripple is the first company to provide a blockchain-enabled solution to the country’s remittance market.

Further, according to previous reports, 20% of all transactions on Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) platform used XRP as a bridge currency on RippleNet.

It should be noted, however, that it is unclear whether RippleNet will make use of Ripple’s native crypto-asset XRP to facilitate these cross-border transactions.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/ripple-targets-uae-india-corridor-with-lulu-exchange-federal-bank-partnership/

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Bitcoin SV, Neo, VeChain Price Analysis: 27 January

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Bitcoin SV remained below its 200-SMA as its prime moved south from the support at $167.7. Neo also mirrored the broader market sentiment as the market’s bears targeted a move below the $21.8-support. Finally, VeChain tested its press time support level, but the market’s bulls could hold on to the $0.028-level over the next few trading sessions.

Bitcoin SV [BSV]

Source: BSV/USD, TradingView

Much like the broader altcoin market, Bitcoin SV flashed red at press time as its price traded below $170, down by over 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The 20-SMA and 200-SMA highlighted some key resistance levels, while also indicating the bear market trend for BSV as the candlesticks moved below both moving averages. In fact, the downtrend could continue over the next few sessions unless there is a bullish bounceback in market leaders Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The indicators favored the bears, but showed a lack of strong momentum. The Awesome Oscillator was bearish-neutral and the MACD’s histogram reflected the same sentiment. If the indicators maintain their position, BSV could trade close to its press time support level over the next few sessions.

Neo [NEO]

Source: NEO/USD, TradingView

Much like BSV, NEO was also bearish at the time of writing, with the price heading towards a strong support level at $21.8. Since buying activity and trading volumes were low, the bulls could struggle to hold on to the press time support level. On the other hand, if the price manages to scale the $23.6-resistance level, a strong case could be made for a bullish bounceback.

The On Balance Volume dropped along with the price over the past few trading sessions and showed that buyer numbers were dwindling in the market.

Although the Stochastic RSI was in the oversold zone, the fact that it was pointing lower indicated that the price might remain subdued before a reversal takes place on the charts.

VeChain [VET]

Source: VET/USD, TradingView

VeChain’s price has been on an uptrend since the start of the month and the cryptocurrency has given favorable returns of 41.6% over the past 30 days. However, its latest price action followed its counterparts, NEO and BSV, as VET moved into negative territory and traded around the $0.028-support. Despite the recent bearishness, however, the bulls could hold on to the level, barring a pullback in the broader market. The next few sessions could see the price trade close to the aforementioned support.

The Bollinger Bands showed that VET was primed for a reversal as the candlesticks moved along the lower band, an area from which the price typically reverses direction.

However, the Chaikin Money Flow reflected the weakness in the press time price as the index remained below zero.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-sv-neo-vechain-price-analysis-27-january/

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Monero, Aave, Enjin Price Analysis: 27 January

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Monero succumbed to yet another support level as the price moved below $134.4. Aave retraced from record levels, but the market still belonged to the bulls and the price could surge to fresher highs over the next few trading sessions. Finally, ENJ showed signs of a bearish pullback and a southbound move could see the price test the $0.375-support level.

Monero [XMR]

Source: XMR/USD, TradingView

After dropping below the $152.7-mark, Monero fell below several support levels and was unable to revisit the levels seen in mid-January. A look at its 4-hour chart showed a bear market for XMR as the price traded below the 200-SMA (green). The bearishness also had a negative result on the price as XMR found itself among the top losers for the month. At the time of writing, the price had slipped below yet another support level at $134.4 and was heading towards the next line of defense at $128.8.

The MACD’s bearish crossover suggested that sellers could control the price moving forward.

The Relative Strength Index headed lower towards the oversold zone, underlining the weakness in price.

Aave [AAVE]

Source: AAVE/USD, TradingView

Aave seemed to cool off from its all-time high as buying activity and trading volumes dipped slightly over the last 24 hours. However, momentum was still strong on the bullish side and an extended rally could see AAVE hit fresher highs over the next few sessions. On the other hand, a fall below the $244.9-support could indicate a reversal and a shift in momentum towards the bears.

The Awesome Oscillator showed that momentum remained strong on the bullish side.

Although the On Balance Volume moved slightly lower over the last few sessions, it still presented a healthy number of buyers in the market.

Enjin [ENJ]

Source: ENJ/USD, TradingView

Despite Enjin falling by over 13% from its all-time high, the gaming token’s price soared by 184.5% in the last 30 days. The uptrend can also be seen on the charts as ENJ snapped higher highs and higher lows. While the bulls were in control of the market, some selling pressure was witnessed over the past couple of days as the price traded close to the $0.402-support. A deeper correction could see ENJ fall below its press time support level and move towards the next barrier at $0.375.

Although the Stochastic RSI traded in the oversold zone and seemed primed for a reversal, a bearish crossover meant that the index could linger in the area before changing direction.

The Parabolic SAR’s dotted markers were above the candlesticks, a sign that ENJ was bearish over the last few days.

Enjin coin made the news recently after it was granted legal status by the Japan Virtual Currency Exchange Association – Japan’s crypto-regulator. The platform also announced a listing on Coincheck, a Japanese exchange platform.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/monero-aave-enjin-price-analysis-27-january/

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